OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela is rolling in Triple-A, but does it make sense to call him up this year?
The 22-year-old prospect has maintained his elite defensive prowess since Worcester promotion whilst flashing in-game power.
Boston Red Sox versatile prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has been on a tear since his promotion to Triple-A Worcester.
In 28 games, he’s slashing .325.384/.667and a 152 wRC+. His nine home runs already surpassed his total in 60 games with Double-A Portland (six).
After losing some steam within the fan base as a prospect, thanks in large to the meteoric rise of fellow outfield prospect Roman Anthony, the 22-year-old is now knocking on the door of the big leagues.
While there are questions about how Rafaela’s plate approach would translate to the major leagues, especially as a largely raw prospect to date, does it make sense for Chaim Bloom and co. to give the kid a cup of coffee down the stretch?
After all, the power Rafaela is showing in Triple-A is something the big-league club lacks at the moment. Though two of the Red Sox’ best power sources have missed a major chunk of time this year, the team ranks 19th in the majors in home runs — 21st since the start of 2022.
Right-handed bats are tied for 27th in homers this year and tied for 24th since 2022.
Even if Rafaela reverts back to his Double-A self in the power department — 18 homers in 131 games dating back to last season — the threat of the long ball is something this offense would serve to benefit from.
The naysayers on Rafaela always point to his high chase rate and low walk rate as reasons he won’t succeed at the next level. While there’s some cause for concern about his plate discipline, it’s hardly a death sentence.
His 5.4% walk rate in 2023 would rank tied for 131st out of 144 qualified MLB hitters. That said, eight of the bottom-14 in that stat have a wRC+ of at least 90 — including Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (135), White Sox outfielder Luis Robert (134), Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (109) and catcher Salvador Perez (90).
The latter has never had a walk rate over 4.4% and has played roughly 1,400 games and hit 240 homers, while making eight All-Star teams, in his big-league career
But even if the bat lags at the MLB level, Rafaela’s flashiest trait will always be what he can do on defense.
The Red Sox are coming off a six-game west coast road trip in which the team went 2-4 and flashed some of the defensive IQ issues that plagued them through an inconsistent first half.
Finding elite defense in center field, especially at Fenway Park, is incredibly important; it’s why the team never looked to improve off of Jackie Bradley Jr.
Not only that, but the youngster is also an elite defender at shortstop, which has also been hard to consistently find this year for the Red Sox. While All-Star shortstop Trevor Story figures to return in the coming week or so, having Rafaela would offer some opportunities to get Story in the lineup more often as a designated hitter if he’s struggling to manage the workload of playing short for nine innings every day.
That said, the aforementioned Story will be back soon, so there’s likely no point in stunting the 22-year-old’s development by getting him inconsistent playing time behind Story, Justin Turner, Adam Duvall, etc.
It’s likely in the best interest of the organization for him to continue tormenting Triple-A pitching, potentially face some adversity and then overcome it before giving him a shot at the big leagues.
If there’s anything recency has taught the world with the Red Sox, it’s that development isn’t always linear. Young stars Jarren Duran, Triston Casas and Brayan Bello are all current examples of that saying — even Connor Wong to a lesser extent.
Rafaela’s time will come to make a meaningful impact at the major league level — it just may not be in 2023.
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