Three keys to Chris Martin's dominant season

Martin has been the most reliable arm in an effective Red Sox bullpen.

Image courtesy of AP Photos

The Red Sox bullpen cost the team on several occasions over its recent West Coast road trip. On Saturday, the Red Sox tied the game in the top of the ninth only for the Giants to hit a walk-off home run one pitch into the bottom of the inning. A day later, another Boston comeback was spoiled by the bullpen, ultimately leading to a second San Francisco walk-off, this time in the 11th inning. Getting out of California proved to be no remedy. The Red Sox bullpen again struggled in Games 1 and 3 of a series Boston lost to the Mariners.

But Chris Martin was never at fault — he rarely has been this season. The 37-year-old right-hander has been a rock in Boston’s bullpen, which, despite recent shortcomings, has been among the best in baseball this year.

In his first season with the Red Sox, Martin has posted a 1.57 ERA, good for eighth best among qualified relievers, in 34 1/3 innings. Working as the setup man, Martin has taken somewhat of a back seat to closer Kenley Jansen in headlines, but Martin has been Boston’s most dependable arm this year.

Here are three keys to Martin’s dominant 2023 season:

1. Leaning on the cutter, striking with the splitter

Martin’s go-to pitch this year has been his cutter. Even though it may be the third most prominent “cutter” on the team behind Jansen’s signature pitch and, well, Kutter Crawford, Martin’s version of the pitch deserves its own praise.

Martin has always utilized a cutter, but this season, it has finally overtaken his four-seam fastball as his primary pitch.

Chris Martin’s cutter usage by season since 2018:

• 2023: 37.2%

• 2022: 31.8%

• 2021: 18.4%

• 2020: 18.8%

• 2019: 14.5%

• 2018: 21.5%

Even though opponents are hitting .273 against Martin’s cutter this season, they’re slugging .295 against it. Tim Anderson, who owns the league’s worst slugging percentage among qualified hitters, is slugging .289.

Quality of contact against Chris Martin’s cutter (courtesy of Baseball Savant)

However, it’s worth noting that the underlying metrics for Martin’s cutter are not as impressive. Despite a stellar .254 wOBA against, the pitch has an expected wOBA of .340. The expected batting average against is .337. Even so, the pitch has been a staple of Martin’s season and has generated positive outcomes for him.

While Martin’s primary pitch has been his cutter, he has relied on his splitter to put hitters away. Martin’s splitter usage is in line with previous seasons (9.3% this year), but the pitch has been much more lethal in 2023. Batters are whiffing at Martin’s splitter on 40% of swings, the second-highest mark of his career for the pitch. Of his 31 strikeouts, 12 have come on the splitter. Overall, opponents are hitting 0.95 (expected .123) and slugging 0.95 (expected .151) with a wOBA of 0.84 (expected .120) against the pitch.

2. Creating weak contact

Martin’s calling card this year has been his ability to create weak contact. Entering Wednesday, Martin ranked in the 100th percentile for average exit velocity allowed, the 98th percentile for barrel percentage allowed and the 95th percentile for hard-hit percentage allowed. Martin and Tyler Rogers share the league’s best mark for soft-contact percentage at 26.8%.

This is a welcomed change for Martin, who was below league average in barrel percentage allowed and hard-hit percentage allowed in 2022. His average exit velocity allowed last season ranked in the 56th percentile.

So how is he forcing weak contact at such an elite rate this year? Martin has excelled in another category: chase rate.

Out-of-zone swing percentage leaders entering Thursday (min. 100 batters faced):

1. Gabe Speier: 40.8%

2. Chris Martin: 40.6%

3. Robert Stephenson: 38.5%

4. Richard Bleier: 38.1%

5. Raisel Iglesias: 37.5%

6. Ryan Pressly: 37.5%

7. Jacob deGrom: 37.5%

8. José Urquidy: 37.1%

But Martin’s chase rate is only half of the recipe.

When batters do chase, they’re still making contact. Martin’s chase contact percentage of 67.9% is well above the league average of 58.1%. While this may sound bad in theory, it is the key to Martin’s success. Hitters are swinging at bad pitches, but rather than missing completely and losing a strike, they’re putting the ball in play, often resulting in weak contact.

3. No free passes

Both of the following are true:

1. Chris Martin is walking batters at his highest rate since 2020.

2. Chris Martin is tied for the sixth-lowest walk rate among qualified relievers.

That’s how good Martin has been throughout his career, and in 2023, at not handing out free passes.

No matter how you look at it, Martin has attacked hitters. His walk rate is 4.5%, and his first-pitch strike percentage of 77.1% is the second highest in MLB. He has thrown 58.3% of his pitches in the zone, the highest rate of his career.

From deploying an effective pitch mix to generating weak contact and refusing to walk batters, Martin has presented opposing teams with a difficult question: What’s the formula to beat the veteran reliever? Martin and the Red Sox are hoping the answer remains just as perplexing down the stretch.

Follow Chris on Twitter @byChrisBlake

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