Leandre: Top 30 relief pitchers entering 2024, 20-11
We're inching closer to the top 10 relievers entering the 2024 season in this installment of the top 30.
This tier of the top 30 wasn’t incredibly difficult to rank, as each of these guys is coming off a stellar 2023 campaign.
However, deciding the order was challenging.
How much does pedigree matter here? What are the odds this pitcher repeat the success? Does ERA and volume matter more than peripherals?
Those were just some of the questions I toggled around my mind as I ranked these 10.
Before getting into the back half of the top 20, let’s recap those in the 20s:
30. Dauri Moreta, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
29. Paul Sewald, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
28. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Washington Nationals
27. A.J. Puk, LHP, Miami Marlins
26. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Atlanta Braves
25. Erik Swanson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
24. Ryan Pressly, RHP, Houston Astros
23. Jason Adam, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
22. Kevin Ginkel, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
21. A.J. Minter, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Now let’s take a look at the next 10.
20. RHP Matt Brash — Seattle Mariners
Brash is a stud, plain and simple. Among all qualified relievers last season, he ranked third in FIP at 2.26.
He also ranked 14th in xFIP despite sneaking into the top 50 in ERA at a still-dependable number of 3.06. He did all of this while nursing a batting average on balls in play of .380 (!!).
It seems Brash is only getting better since his MLB call-up in 2022, so I’d expect pretty big things from him in 2024. Especially if his whiff and strikeout rates remain as astronomically high as they were last year.
The reason Brash ranks only 20th is somewhat unfair: volume. Ultimately, the righty has just 120 big-league innings under his belt, and nearly half of them contributed to what was a topsy-turvy inaugural season at the MLB level.
I get it, everyone has growing pains, but when it comes to Brash, there are too many ole’ reliables still in the game.
19. LHP Aroldis Chapman — Pittsburgh Pirates
After being ticketed for a harsh decline after his final two years in the Bronx, Chapman took a prove-it deal with the Kansas City Royals in 2023. Between there and his stint with the World Series Champion Texas Rangers, he showed he’s still got something in the tank.
Surprisingly, it was the Pirates that brought him in on a one-year deal this winter, despite the constant need for reliable relief-pitching.
The thing for me that gives Chapman such a high ranking despite coming off two lackluster years previously is the resurrection of his velocity. For starters, it shows he’s healthy, and two, it shows he may have found something that allows him to be effectively wild again.
His 99.5 mph average fastball ranked in the 99th percentile last season, as did his .172 xBA against. He also ranked in the 100th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate a season ago.
18. RHP Jeff Hoffman — Philadelphia Phillies
It’s been a long time coming for Hoffman to break out at the MLB level. It took just as long for him to not be in a bandbox like Coors Field or Great American Ballpark.
Last year, he saw monumental gains across the board. He posted career-highs in ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, GB% (min. 50 innings), HR/9, BABIP, K%, K-BB% and SIERA, just to name a “few.”
The man saw a red wave on his Savant page in 2023. If he repeats the year he just had, he might become a fringe top-10 reliever.
17. RHP Camilo Doval — San Francisco Giants
I teetered on where to rank Doval for a myriad of reasons — initially had him 20th — for a myriad of reasons.
His ERA jumped nearly half a run and his grounder rate dropped 4% as well. However, his xERA improved (slightly) while his strikeouts and walks improved as well.
His walk rate is still too high to truly jump into the top 15-10 without having to become a 14 or 15 strikeouts-per-nine pitcher, but ultimately he’s still hovering around that tier.
I like Doval a lot. His roughly three-quarter arm slot mixed with an average fastball of 98 mph is an unbearable challenge for hitters. His sinker also gets 4.1 more inches of vertical break than the average.
If he can get those walks down or his strikeouts continue to soar, we’re talking about a perennial All-Star out of the backend of the bullpen for the Giants.
16. RHP Bryan Abreu — Houston Astros
Perhaps a surprisingly low ranking for Abreu, who is coming off a year with a 1.75 ERA following a year where it was 1.94.
The reasoning for that is his peripherals worsened and his walk rate stayed about the same while his strikeouts dipped.
For someone who has to rely on command on account of his low chase rate, it worries me to see strikeouts go down without also seeing walks go down or an improved ground ball rate.
While he ranked eighth among qualified relievers in ERA, he was 25th in FIP, tied for 23rd in xFIP and tied for 110th in walk rate.
15. RHP Andrés Muñoz — Seattle Mariners
Muñoz missed two months last season with an injury, but came back strong and only allowed multiple runs in two of his last 48 outings — coupled with 33 scoreless ones.
His walks skyrocketed last year, which is alarming, but his ground ball rate teetered around 60% at season’s end and he’s a guy who gets hitters to chase at a 32.2% rate (84th percentile).
He’s nasty.
14. RHP Emmanuel Clase — Cleveland Guardians
The 2023 campaign was a weird one for Clase who, despite throwing a cutter that can touch triple digits, has never been a guy with double-digit strikeouts per nine.
But last year, the right-hander’s strikeouts dropped 7.2% on a rate basis and over 1.5 on a per-nine basis. His BABIP also went up while his ground ball rate went down.
Long story short, it was a career-worst season for him pretty much across the board.
He sticks in the top 15 because ultimately his numbers didn’t dip enough for me to look at 2023 as anything more than an outlier season. However, it’s sort of a probationary No. 14 ranking for him. If he has similar or worse numbers in 2024, we may be having an entirely different conversation about him next February.
13. RHP Clay Holmes — New York Yankees
I am a sucker for ground ball rate, y’all.
Holmes doesn’t have the gaudy ERA or peripherals. He’s not a top-five strikeout artist for his position. He’s just a guy whose grounder rate can drop 10.3% from the previous season and still be in the 100th percentile.
While, as I just mentioned, Holmes isn’t pumping out a sub-two ERA or unreal peripherals, he’s just steady Eddie with everything. Since he’s gotten to the Yankees, he’s been razor-sharp. Despite X.com rooting for the man’s downfall, he’s weathered a couple of storms with his command and remained solid throughout.
Since the 2021 trade deadline, he has a 2.50 ERA with great peripherals and a strikeout rate flirting with 28%.
12. RHP Pete Fairbanks — Tampa Bay Rays
Injuries kept Fairbanks from qualifying on Savant for the bubble screenshots, but look at what they would’ve looked like had he qualified:
There are fewer guarantees as a Rays reliever than there are in life: You’re elite and you get injured.
However, Fairbanks is one of the best relievers in the sport when he’s out there. I can’t *not* rank him here because he’s been the perfect storm of run prevention, has great peripherals, a good grounder rate and great strikeout-to-walk numbers since 2020.
If he can put it together for a full season, he’s going to end up in the top five to seven.
11. RHP Evan Phillips — Los Angeles Dodgers
I’m a big believer in Phillips returning to a somewhat close version of his 2022 self in 2024.
His numbers dipped across the board after going from a middle/setup reliever to the Dodgers closer in 2023, but his numbers were still very good.
The real alarm-sounding difference was the drop in production in high leverage for the right-hander. In 2022, he had a 0.95 FIP and 37.7 strikeout rate in 14.1 innings. Last year, he had a 4.18 FIP and 23.9 strikeout rate in 17.1 innings.
I just don’t think Phillips is a closer, to be frank. I view him as a high-end setup guy who *can* close when needed. When — because I don’t believe it’s an if at this point — the Dodgers acquire a closer, Phillips will slide back into the setup man position and will return to the freakish individual he was in 2022.
Leandre: Top 30 starting pitchers entering 2024, 10-1
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