Leandre: Top 30 starting pitchers entering 2024, 10-1
The final installment of ranking starting pitchers ahead of the 2024 season.
It’s time to get down to business with the top 10 starting pitchers entering the 2024 MLB season.
Unlike the last installment, surprises shouldn’t be plentiful here. Perhaps the order may be cause for some debate, but generally speaking, I think these 10 names are consensus, at least, all within the top 12-13.
As a reminder, I am not ranking any starters with no prior MLB experience — Japanese phenoms Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shöta Imanaga. I am also not ranking starters out for most or all of 2024; guys like Shohei Ohtani (as a pitcher), Jeffrey Springs, Shane McClanahan, or debatably, guys like Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff and Jacob deGrom.
To recap Part 2, in case you missed it:
20. Cole Ragans, LHP, Kansas City Royals
19. Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
18. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
17. George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
16. Kodai Senga, RHP, New York Mets
15. Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
14. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Blake Snell, LHP, Free Agent
12. Zach Eflin, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
11. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
For my reasoning for those rankings, be sure to check out Part 2 of the starting pitcher rankings.
Without further ado, let’s wrap up this portion of player rankings by position, starting with No. 10.
10. RHP Sonny Gray — St. Louis Cardinals
I’m a sucker for Sonny Gray and always have been, to be completely honest. Even during his polarizing time in the Bronx, I defended the man with my life.
Fast forward six years removed from the Yankees, having had pit stops in Cincinnati and Minnesota, he’s emerged as one of the 10-best starters in the game.
Last year, one could make a case he deserved the AL Cy Young over winner Gerrit Cole. He had greater fWAR in fewer innings (and starts), a comparable ERA and xFIP but nearly a third of a run better from a FIP standpoint, a stat in which Gray led the majors.
Now, I have no qualms about Cole winning his long-overdue Cy Young Award, but how can someone so comparable to him not also rank in the top 10 with him?
This wasn’t a fugazi type of run to a Cy Young podium for Gray, either. He maintained a comfortable gap between his strikeout and walk rate whilst keeping the ball on the ground and kept it in the yard the rare time an opponent elevated.
9. RHP Tyler Glasnow — Los Angeles Dodgers
This one is going to catch me some flak for inconsistency in logic (you’ll see why at the end).
Glasnow has been one of the best bang-for-your-buck starters in the game since he broke out in 2019 with Tampa Bay. The problem is that 2023 was his first time eclipsing 112 innings in his MLB career.
However, among pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, Glasnow was third in FIP, first in xFIP, second in SIERA and strikeout rate. The only reason he’s not higher on this list is because the injuries keep him from logging 150-plus innings.
The game is better when he’s healthy, though. Hopefully, his fortunes change with the Dodgers.
8. LHP Max Fried — Atlanta Braves
You didn’t think I’d forget about the Braves, did you?
Fried will be one of the most coveted arms in recent history in about nine months when he hits free agency.
Since 2020, he has a 2.66 ERA with a 3.03 FIP, both top-five in baseball.
Last year, the lefty dealt with injuries but still posted a 2.55 ERA and 2.75 xERA in his 77.2 innings.
7. RHP Pablo López — Minnesota Twins
I was so wrong about López.
Not that I ever thought he was bad, I just never thought he’d ascend into a pitcher I’d rank No. 7 in the game entering a season.
The former Miami Marlin ranked 11th in FIP last year, but first in xERA, fifth in xFIP, ninth in innings, third in strikeout-to-walk rate and fifth in SIERA.
He’s a machine and a big reason why the Twins could afford to let Gray walk this winter to the Cardinals. Between him and Joe Ryan, the Twins are sitting pretty at the top of their rotation.
6. RHP Zack Wheeler — Philadelphia Phillies
Similar to López, Wheeler’s ERA ended up in the 3.6 range. However, everything else remained pristine.
Among qualifiers last year, Wheeler ranked seventh in SIERA, sixth in K-BB% and FIP and eighth in WHIP despite sporting a BABIP of .292.
What I wished for with Glasnow earlier is what ended up happening with Wheeler when he got to the Phillies, and the game has been better off because of it.
5. LHP Justin Steele — Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have a perennial Cy Young candidate at the front of their staff in the lefty Steele.
Last year, one could argue he deserved it more than Snell did, despite an ERA 0.81 runs worse. Across the board from a peripherals standpoint, Steele had him beat and also bested him by nearly two fWAR.
While their respective strikeout-to-walk numbers are similar on a rate basis, Steele walks guys roughly 6% of the time compared to Snell’s 13.3%, giving me much less pause about him sustaining his 2023 success.
As for ranks, he was sixth in ERA, fifth in FIP, sixth in xFIP and tied for seventh in fWAR among qualifiers.
4. RHP Gerrit Cole — New York Yankees
This might seem like bias against the Yankees Ace but I genuinely believe this is the best spot for Cole entering the 2024 campaign, which will be his age-33 season.
Cole finally got the elusive Cy Young last year after he should’ve won it in 2019 instead of Justin Verlander. However, some warning signs on Cole could cause a dip in performance in 2024.
For example, his ground ball rate crept under 40% for the first time in a non-COVID year since 2018. On top of that, he also had his worst line drive rate since 2018 and his worst strikeout and strikeout-to-walk rate since 2017, when he was still with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
When I say “warning signs,” I don’t mean to suggest Cole will dramatically dip in 2024. I imagine he’ll be hovering around the Cy Young race once again. I just think as far as ranking guys heading into 2024, it’s important to be cautious about potential warning signs.
3. RHP Kevin Gausman — Toronto Blue Jays
Quite frankly, Gausman has a legit case to be in the No. 1 spot.
Except for ERA, the Jays right-hander had better numbers than Cole. FIP? Better. xFIP? Better. SIERA? Better. K-BB%? Better. fWAR? Better.
Gausman is a machine and has put to bed any doubts people had about whether he was a spider tack merchant back in 2021 with San Francisco. Since getting to the Jays, in an era where the American League East is a gauntlet, he’s posted 11.0 fWAR and an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.25/2.68/2.99 in almost 360 innings.
2. RHP Logan Webb — San Francisco Giants
Webb is just ridiculous, to keep it brief.
My favorite thing about him is he is still one of the better pitchers from a strikeout-to-walk standpoint while also boasting a ludicrous ground ball rate of over 60%.
Last year, Webb was second among qualifiers with a 3.16 SIERA, a 2.95 xFIP, was seventh in FIP at 3.16 and third in walks-per-nine.
Everything you should love about pitchers, Logan Webb is that. He keeps the ball on the ground, doesn’t walk guys and can pick up punchouts when needed. If he somehow was one of the best in the business at limiting hard contact, which is less important for a ground ball pitcher, we’d be talking about a real Renaissance Man.
1. RHP Spencer Strider — Atlanta Braves
I don’t care what his ERA was last year, this man is the most dominant pitcher in baseball.
Last year, Strider led qualifiers in FIP, xFIP, SIERA and strikeout-to-walk rate. He’s a menace to opposing lineups.
Now, he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground when opponents do put it in play off him, which is a large reason he had the fifth-highest BABIP against of all qualifiers. However, when it comes to tormenting lineups, Strider is the closest thing the game has to 2018-2021 deGrom.
Sidenote: Saying that about Strider when his 2023 ERA was nearly two runs higher than deGrom’s for that whole four-year span is ridiculous.
Elephant in the Room
So, if you’ve followed this closely, you’ve probably noticed some notables missing from the rankings that weren’t laid out in the little monologue at the top of this article.
To address who they are, they’re Walker Buehler, Joe Musgrove, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
The fact those four are missing feels almost criminal given how dominant they’ve been for a good period.
However, I’ll explain briefly why each was omitted from the top 30, as sort of a “First Four Out” type of situation.
Max Scherzer (No. 34): I understand he was elite the previous two seasons, but 2023 was his worst season since 2011.
He’s battled injuries and arm fatigue each of the past two seasons, causing him to melt down to a shell of his former self in October the past two years.
I still think he’s a very capable pitcher, but he turns 40 in July. There’s no guarantee he can be vintage Scherzer again.
Justin Verlander (No. 33): Last year, he backed up a Cy Young campaign with a 3.22 ERA and nearly helped get the Astros to another World Series berth.
However, entering his age-41 season, coming off a year where his average fastball was the slowest it’s been since 2016, his worst peripherals since 2008 and lowest strikeout numbers than all but two of his last 14 seasons made it hard to justify him over some of these guys still ascending.
Walker Buehler (No. 32) and Joe Musgrove (No. 31): Both guys are great, but so is the current landscape of starting pitching in Major League Baseball. Given that both guys missed extensive time/all of 2023, that was going to make it hard for them to stick.
I understand that Carlos Rodón battled injuries and was not good in 2023 when healthy, but he was ranked in my top five entering last season, while Musgrove and Buehler ranked outside my top 10. All three saw similar falls, it’s just that Rodón was ranked so highly that he stuck while the others didn’t.
There’s some inconsistency in that logic, I acknowledge that. I had Glasnow in my top 10 despite him never having a season above 120 innings. I had Skubal and Ragans in the 20-11 range with very small samples. However, all three guys were so dominant in their samples that I overlooked it.
Not to say Musgrove wasn’t still good in his 97.1 innings pitched, but his strikeouts were down and his xFIP/SIERA was up.
Perhaps this top 30 deserves to have an asterisk on it because so many star-caliber arms are left out. However, it’s hard to be a top 30 starter entering 2024 when you’re not entering 2024 healthy and ready for Opening Day.
