Leandre: Top 30 relief pitchers entering 2024, 30-21
Moving forward in positional rankings, we have the top 30 relievers entering the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
Relief pitchers are always going to be hard to rank.
Outside the top 10, reserved for the extreme exceptions to the rule, the art of being a relief pitcher is extremely volatile.
Unlike starting pitchers, who are likely on the hook for at least 15 outs every time out, a reliever gets tasked with one inning, maybe two, at a time. As a result, bad outings can do serious damage to one’s overall numbers.
Before getting into Part 1 of this ranking, let’s start with some disclaimers.
Like the starting pitcher rankings, arms out for all/most of 2024 will not be ranked (sorry, Orioles fans)
Saves are cool, though not as important for the sake of these rankings
In the event two players have similar numbers, I’ll opt for the one doing more in high-leverage situations.
Without further ado, let’s start with No. 30.
30. RHP Dauri Moreta — Pittsburgh Pirates
Moreta came onto the scene in 2023 after spending parts of the previous two seasons with the Cincinnati Reds.
It wasn’t always sunshine and rainbows for the 27-year-old, but overall he settled into a really impressive campaign.
Among relievers with at least 50 innings last year, he ranked 21st in K/9, 22nd in FIP and 28th in strikeout-to-walk rate.
While all that is good, what caught my eye was his reverse-slider, screwball-looking pitch that made the rounds on social media a handful of times during the season. That, and him striking out the side before pulling a $20 bill out of his back pocket as he walked off the mound.
Talk about having aura.
29. RHP Paul Sewald — Arizona Diamondbacks
The World Series wasn’t kind to Sewald but since getting to Seattle, and now Arizona, in 2021, he’s become a stalwart on the backend.
The past three seasons, he’s maxed out at a 3.12 ERA but his expected ERA has been 2.85 or lower each year as well.
Last season, Sewald’s ERA barely cracked the top 60 — minimum of 50 innings — but his expected ERA was 12th. He also ranked 24th in strikeout-to-walk rate to couple with a mastery of limiting hard contact, ranking 18th in hard-hit rate.
What concerns me about him is his minute ground ball rate, which coupled with an increase in walks after getting to the desert could make for some trouble this year.
28. RHP Hunter Harvey — Washington Nationals
I’ve liked Harvey since he came up with the Orioles in 2019. However, until a 39.1-inning sample in 2022, he hadn’t shown much of what he could do in an MLB bullpen.
Then, after backing it up with another strong campaign in 2023, this time over 57 outings, I had no choice but to give the man his flowers.
Among relievers with 50 innings or more in 2023, Harvey tied for 22nd in fWAR and finished 19th in strikeout-to-walk rate. His fastball also ranked in the 97th percentile for average velocity at 98.3 miles per hour.
He’s a freak and Nationals fans have someone to be excited about at the back end of their bullpen going forward.
I would, however, like to see him get more opportunities in high-leverage. While his ERA in 26.1 high-leverage innings in Washington is 4.73, his peripherals are impressive and he strikes out almost a third of his batters faced.
27. LHP A.J. Puk — Miami Marlins
Similar to Harvey, I’ve always liked Puk as a late-inning reliever.
In 2022, he had a strong ERA with simply OK peripherals. In 2023, the inverse happened. He had an ERA over 3.7, but his peripherals were stellar.
What cracked him into my top 30 was simply seeing his strikeouts skyrocket alongside a decrease in walks. He shredded his previous career-high in strikeout-to-walk rate (26.9 from 18.9) and that went with a 2.66 SIERA, which tied him for fourth in the majors among relievers with at least 50 innings.
He ranks so “low” despite the gaudy SIERA is simply a lack of peripherals matching run prevention. While he did see those gains in strikeouts and improved walk numbers, he also ranked 141st out of 157 relievers in homers per nine innings.
If he can get that number back down, he’s going to continue soaring up these rankings in the coming years.
26. RHP Raisel Iglesias — Atlanta Braves
Iglesias is as consistent as they come for relievers.
Dating back to his first season as a full-time reliever, he’s only had one year with an ERA above 2.75 (4.16 in 2019). He’s the pinnacle of consistency.
That’s why he ranks 26th despite finishing 30th in ERA, tied for 49th in fWAR and ranking 39th in FIP among relievers who pitched at least 50 innings last season.
The 34-year-old right-hander is coming off a 33-save season for the Braves after half a year working on the bridge to future Hall-of-Famer Kenley Jansen. As far as I can see, there’s absolutely zero reason to change that.
25. RHP Erik Swanson — Toronto Blue Jays
Less so than Iglesias, but still, Swanson is a steady reliever.
While his 2023 wasn’t on par with what he did in 2022 with Seattle, the right-hander has one of the nastiest pitches in baseball.
His splitter, which led him to a 99th percentile offspeed run value, held opponents to a .219 wOBA with 58 strikeouts.
He also ranked in the 92nd percentile for expected ERA and 93rd percentile for expected batting average.
24. RHP Ryan Pressly — Houston Astros
The regression bug hit Pressly in the second half of 2023, but he was so dominant the previous two years that he still comfortably ranks in the top 30.
Even with the regression, he still ranked in the top 15 in xFIP and SIERA. On top of that, he ranked 32nd in strikeout-to-walk rate and tied for 29th in WHIP.
If he can get back to first-half Pressly, he can return to the top-15.
23. RHP Jason Adam — Tampa Bay Rays
Adam is a tough one to figure out, in all honesty.
Look at his 2022 campaign. Even though his peripherals pointed to regression, he was unhittable that year. His ERA was 1.56 with a 2.09 xERA.
Last year, the strikeouts were up, but so were the walks, the peripherals and the quality of contact against him.
That said, he still ranked tied for 17th in batting average against, 22nd in strikeout rate and tied for 32nd in SIERA.
He’s a good reliever, but I question just *how* good he is. Perhaps ranking him 23rd is too much in favor of his 2022 self, but he was strong enough last year to not fall completely out of the top 25.
22. RHP Kevin Ginkel — Arizona Diamondbacks
Ginkel was insane in the second half last season, posting a 2.59 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 31.1 innings post-All-Star Break.
He was also electric in the postseason, not allowing a run and punching out 15 in 11.2 innings.
Overall, the longtime D-back tied for 22nd in fWAR, was 20th in ERA and 19th in FIP. Going back to 2022, he’s tied for 24th in FIP.
The Diamondbacks might have a rising star on their hands, rewarding them for their patience after consecutive six-plus ERAs in 2020 and 2021.
21. LHP A.J. Minter — Atlanta Braves
Minter has become one of the steadier relievers in baseball, particularly since 2020.
However, similar to his teammate Iglesias, he fell off enough to drop considerably in the rankings despite the steadiness. Among relievers with 50-plus innings, he ranked tied for 89th in ERA and 31st in xFIP.
That said, he finished 20th in FIP, 22nd in SIERA and tied for 16th in strikeout-to-walk rate.
His peripherals suggest positive regression is coming in 2024 for the southpaw, and his Savant page is still popping with red. For those reasons, he positions himself firmly at No. 21.
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