Leandre: Top 30 relief pitchers entering 2024, 10-1
This installment brings us the top 10 relief pitchers heading into the 2024 season.
At long last, we’ve entered the elitist of the elite-tier relief pitchers.
These guys have been there, done that, then been there and done it again.
Except for two, who we’ll talk about in a moment, these 10 are household names — or at least should be by now. However, as mentioned in the article ranking Nos. 30-21, there are no inclusions for pitchers expected to miss most or all of the 2024 campaign.
Once again: Sorry, Orioles fans!
Before getting into the top 10, let’s recap who made out the middle third of my top 30.
20. Matt Brash, RHP, Seattle Mariners
19. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
17. Camilo Doval, RHP, San Francisco Giants
16. Bryan Abreu, RHP, Houston Astros
15. Andrés Muñoz, RHP, Seattle Mariners
14. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
13. Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Yankees
12. Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
11. Evan Phillips, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Now that the recap is out of the way, let’s get into the top 10 relief arms heading into 2024.
10. LHP José Alvarado — Philadelphia Phillies
I liked Alvarado a lot when he was with Tampa Bay, he just couldn’t put it together year-to-year with his command.
Now with the Phillies, the southpaw has turned into the 10th-best reliever in the game after consecutive elite campaigns, albeit marred a little by some injuries.
In the last two seasons, the 28-year-old has a 2.53 ERA, a 2.14 FIP and an astonishing 145 strikeouts in 92.1 innings pitched. While his command can still fail him at times, he’s striking out nearly 40% of hitters since 2022 began.
He’s as dominant as they come, and if he can replicate that again in 2024? He might force himself into the top five.
9. RHP Chris Martin — Boston Red Sox
The only Boston Red Sox pitcher to crack the top 30 — starters or relievers — is the veteran right-hander Martin.
It’s criminal how under-appreciated he’s been leaguewide since he broke out with the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves in 2019. Since then, he’s posted two seasons with an ERA below 1.1 — albeit one was in 2020.
Last year with Boston, he led all MLB relievers in ERA at 1.05 and posted a 0.81 ERA after May 1.
The reason he ranks ninth and not higher is that his strikeout numbers were only slightly above average for a high-leverage reliever, he turns 38 in June and his peripherals hint at some hefty regression (albeit still very good numbers).
8. RHP David Bednar — Pittsburgh Pirates
I don’t want to under-talk about how good — and dependable — Bednar is, but there’s not much else to say other than the dude is lethal.
Three years in a row, the right-hander has had an ERA and FIP under 2.7. Overall, he has an ERA of 2.25 and a FIP of 2.56 since 2021. He’s also fifth in fWAR for qualified relievers in that span despite being tied for 27th in innings pitched.
His role has gotten more important with the Pirates each season, culminating in him getting 39 saves in 2023. While that team is staring down the barrel of another losing season, it won’t be because of Bednar.
7. RHP Robert Stephenson — Los Angeles Angels
Maybe I’m being a prisoner of the most recent season for the guy but Stephenson is just a completely different arm than he was even entering mid-April last year.
I understand the entire body of work for him from 2016 until he got to Tampa Bay is pretty meh, but the man he was for the Rays was too dominant to leave outside the top 10.
Yes, they did it again.
It seems to be the addition of the cutter that unlocked the potential in Stephenson, who posted a 2.35 ERA, 2.45 FIP and a 37.1 strikeout-to-walk rate.
Just. Disgusting.
6. RHP Ryan Helsley — St. Louis Cardinals
Since the start of 2022, Helsley ranks third in ERA, fourth in FIP and 10th in xFIP across 101.1 innings.
He’s lethal out of the backend for the Cardinals.
The only thing knocking him down despite his high ranks leaguewide the past couple of seasons is the volume to put the cherry on top. Unfortunately, he’s outside the top 100 in innings pitched thanks to injuries knocking him down to just 36.2 innings in 2023.
If he can get back to 2022 volume, even with 2023 production, he might jump into the top three.
5. RHP Jhoan Duran — Minnesota Twins
Don’t get me wrong, because Duran has the numbers to back up this ranking, but so much of what makes this young right-hander No. 5 in the league for me is his stuff.
I mean, the dude throws a splitter in the high 90s. That kind of velocity can’t be explained by human logic.
It’s not shocking that he forces opponents to beat the ball into the ground if they even make contact. He was in the 95th percentile for whiff rate in 2023; and 96th percentile for strikeout rate. He does have a problem with Ball 4 but, like, who cares when you throw the baseball like that?
The Twins have a superhero in their bullpen. They better appreciate him while they have him.
4. RHP Edwin Díaz — New York Mets
Remember when it was controversial to say this man was good?
I’m often wrong, but good lord was I right to not sell any of my stock in him being elite.
Sadly, the right-hander missed his age-29 season after suffering a knee injury in the World Baseball Classic last year — so we were deprived of Timmy Trumpet for a full season.
His numbers don’t even do justice to how good he is. He’s a special reliever, and the baseball world is better now that he’s back in it.
3. LHP Josh Hader — Houston Astros
It’s crazy to think about him being an Astro now; it hasn’t sunk in yet.
Last year, Hader put together a masterclass in run prevention, posting a 1.28 ERA and a 23.8 strikeout-to-walk rate. He’s also mastered the art of limiting hard contact, as batters only achieved hard contact against him 28.3% of the time.
He and Ryan Pressly (No. 24 on my rankings) have a chance to be one of, if not the best setup/closer duos in the sport this season.
2. RHP Devin Williams — Milwaukee Brewers
While his ERA wasn’t quite 1.28, it wasn’t all that much worse (1.53) last year. He also bested Hader in FIP, xFIP, SIERA, grounder rate and strikeout-to-walk rate.
He’s unhittable and has been since before Hader was traded to the San Diego Padres in 2022.
In his MLB career, he has a 1.89 ERA. Among the 1,377 relievers to log at least 200 innings out of the pen, he’s No. 1.
Let that sink in.
1. LHP Tanner Scott — Miami Marlins
I was super close to ranking Scott No. 2 and Williams No. 1.
However, among the 30 relievers ranked, Scott led in FIP, xFIP, SIERA (tied with teammate A.J. Puk — No. 27), fWAR, rWAR and hard-hit rate in 2023.
While Williams has him beat in pedigree, Scott isn’t unfamiliar to having a great year at the MLB level; 2023 just was the first one he truly put it all together.
Leandre: Top 30 relief pitchers entering 2024, 30-21
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Jordan, this is a pretty good list. I might argue with some of the individual rankings, but not with the list itself! Well-thought out and supported. 👍🏻👍🏻
Good list shows a lot of insight and knowledge. Unfortunately no Red Sox catchers anywhere to be seen.