Exploring Ceddanne Rafaela's role for the Red Sox in 2026
Can we assume that Ceddanne Rafaela is locked in as the everyday center fielder for the Red Sox, or is something else in the cards?
As we sit here just before the calendar flips to 2026, the Boston Red Sox are still in search of additions to their roster. More specifically, Craig Breslow and company will be looking to make another addition to the lineup to go along with the recently-acquired first baseman Willson Contreras, whom the Sox picked up in a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals on December 21.
As the Red Sox try to figure out how their 2026 lineup will shake out, it will do so while also trying to work out of its logjam of viable outfielders that has been building over the last two seasons. Last season, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, and Ceddanne Rafaela played the most innings in Boston’s outfield, but the presence of budding superstar Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and even designated hitter Masataka Yoshida further crowd the picture.
Since Anthony’s arrival in the big leagues in June of 2025, fans have been clamoring for some space to be cleared by trading one of these outfielders. Jarren Duran, who at 29 years old is under team control through 2028, has been the guy most frequently thrown around in trade discourse. However, sending Duran out in a trade isn’t the only way that the Red Sox can try and clear space.
Another player that might hold the means of unclogging Boston’s outfield is 25 year old Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela is coming off his second full season in the big leagues and is already considered one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, registering +21 OAA in center field last year, trailing only Pete Crow-Armstrong among major league outfielders.
However, Rafaela also moonlights in the middle infield, logging 165 innings at second base in 2025. He was merely a league-average defender at second this season with 0 OAA, but there’s no doubt that he could be above-average or better with more consistent playing time there.
The reason I mention this is because of the recent discourse among Red Sox fans about Rafaela’s role for the Red Sox this season. On Monday, Red Sox NESN analyst Lou Merloni discussed an idea on “X,” that would involve Rafaela moving to second base and Duran being the center fielder. It’s an alignment the Red Sox have featured plenty of over the last two seasons, but one that fans haven’t seemed high on.
It’s certainly one idea as to how the Red Sox could address their glut of outfielders, but not the only one involving Rafaela at the crux. That’s why today, we’ll take a look at the three paths the Red Sox can choose with Rafaela this offseason, and what it would mean for the rest of the roster.
Everyday Center Fielder
Playing Rafaela in center field every day is probably the simplest avenue for the Red Sox to take, simply because it’s what they’ve already been doing. Furthermore, it’s where a significant chunk of his value lies. As previously mentioned, his +21 OAA in center this year is an elite number that few can match.
By keeping Rafaela in center, that leaves four players to fill the corner outfield and designated hitter spots between Anthony, Abreu, Duran, and Yoshida. This is where the idea of trading Duran comes in, relegating Yoshida and his underwater contract (owed $36 million over the next two seasons) to DH duties.
While keeping Rafaela in center and Yoshida off the outfield grass, the Red Sox are maximizing their defensive potential, as Anthony and Abreu are both solid defenders in the outfield, with Abreu already being the owner of two Gold Gloves in right field.
However, the Red Sox would also be limiting their offensive ceiling, as Rafaela has been a below league-average hitter in his career, and posted just a 91 wRC+ in 2025. His propensity to swing at almost anything hasn’t seemed to improve with more time in the majors and only limits his upside. He has shown an ability to hit for power and get hot with the bat like he did in June of 2025 when he posted an OPS of .872, however he hasn’t shown the ability to be hot for more than a month at a time, keeping him as a lock for the bottom third of the lineup.
He Boston would similarly be limiting its offensive upside with Yoshida as the everyday designated hitter. Yoshida has been slightly above league-average with the bat with a wRC+ of 110 and 29 home runs across three seasons, however injuries have played a role and there’s some reason for optimism that he can be more of a force in the lineup with a full and healthy spring training under his belt. His on-base skills are valuable but he doesn’t offer the same power potential as Duran would, but by keeping Duran and making him the DH, the Red Sox would be forced to carry Yoshida’s money as dead weight on the bench.
Everyday Second Baseman
Returning to the idea posed earlier, Rafaela being at second base would allow the Red Sox to put Duran in center field and Yoshida in the DH spot. Duran has shown to be a reliable center fielder over the last two seasons, with +7 OAA in 2024 and +1 OAA in 194 innings in 2025 at the position.
By keeping this alignment, the Red Sox would be able to raise their offensive ceiling a little bit, as Duran proved to be valuable even in a down year in 2025, slashing .256/.332/.442 with 16 homers and a 111 wRC+ to go along with his elite speed on the bases.
While the potential is there to be solid defensively, it would still represent a big step back to pull Rafaela’s glove out of the outfield and place it at second base. Much of Rafaela’s overall value is tied to his ability to play an elite center field, and by putting him at a less valuable position like second base, it’s hard to justify having his bat in the lineup at all at that point.
An aditional wrinkle in this plan is centered around Marcello Mayer. Currently, if the Red Sox plan to add another bat like Alex Bregman to the lineup, Mayer would be forced out to accommodate Rafaela at second base. Mayer still plays great defense up the middle and has a higher offensive ceiling than Rafaela. Therefore, this plan would only make sense if the Red Sox only planned on keeping Rafaela at second base for a short time while Mayer either further hones his craft at the plate in triple-A or if he’s traded in a package for an elite player like Ketel Marte.
The Red Sox could also opt to play Rafaela at second base if they make no more additions to their lineup this offseason, relegating Mayer to third base on opening day.
Trading Rafaela instead of Duran
As previously mentioned, Jarren Duran has been the hottest name in trade discourse among fans this offseason, but the case could be made that Rafaela should be the odd man out instead.
As outlined in the previous section, having Rafaela play anywhere but center field significantly diminishes his value, while Duran has shown the ability to play an above-average center field - and to this point the Red Sox have been hesitant to deal Duran for anything other than a “front-of-the-rotation starter” as reported by Jeff Passan on Threads last week.
If the Red Sox insist on holding Duran so tightly, why not test Rafaela’s value on the market and see if opposing teams value him more than Duran? After all, teams value elite defense in center field and he’s under team control at about $6.5 million per year through 2031, a contract that any team could accommodate.
By taking this route, the Red Sox would be able to clear a small amount of their payroll, helping to accommodate the addition of another bat like the aforementioned Bregman, or even Bo Bichette or Eugenio Suarez, while leaving a spot for Marcello Mayer as well.
Like our previous scenario with Rafaela playing second base, the defensive ceiling of the team certainly isn’t as high, but featuring Duran and Mayer certainly isn’t bad and ensures that the group’s offensive ceiling is higher. By no means am I implying that this has to be the route that the Red Sox choose, since Rafaela’s defensive value, particularly in center field is quite high, but it could be worthwhile to investigate if the Red Sox are dead set on trading an outfielder and are running into a wall trying to move Duran. And trading Rafaela certainly makes more sense than sticking him at second base on a full-time basis where his bat won’y justify a place in the lineup.
This Week in Free Agency: 12/20/25 - 12/27/25
The week of Christmas brought a lot of under-the-radar signings but a little bit less as far as what many would consider a splash or slam dunk, although there was some movement on the first baseman front as well as some of the more interesting righty relievers. The holidays tend to slow the market as front offices, agents, and players alike step away, l…