Brewers ace Corbin Burnes should be atop the Red Sox offseason wishlist
The Red Sox need healthy, frontline starting pitching next season. One name that could become available is Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.
The Brewers’ righty enters the final year of his contract with the club and because of that, they could entertain trading him before he enters free agency.
Burnes is projected to make roughly $15 million in 2024, which is cheap for a pitcher of his caliber. If Boston were to swing a deal for the righty, they would need to be aggressive in locking him up on a longterm deal in the winter.
The former 2021 Cy Young winner hasn’t been as dominant over the last two years. His strikeout rate has plummeted from 35.6 percent to 25.5 percent last season. Burnes has however struck out 200 batters in each of the last three seasons.
Burnes went 10-8 last season making 32 starts with 200 strikeouts, 1.069 WHIP over 193 2/3 innings. He has made 30 plus starts the last three seasons and has tossed 200 innings once.
Boston is in need of starting pitchers who can give them length in the rotation. Brayan Bello led the team in innings tossing 157 innings. Only five Red Sox pitchers threw 100 innings last season, with three of them tossing 129 innings or more.
The Sox front office explored the possibility of acquiring Burnes around the trade deadline, according to a source. The Brewers declined to move their ace mainly in part to being in the playoff race.
One caveat in the Red Sox not acquiring Burnes would be if the Brewers make him unavailable this winter. The Brewers are going to be without right-hander Brandon Woodruff next season after he underwent anterior capsule in his throwing shoulder.
The likelihood that the Brewers re-sign Burnes could be slim due to their modest payroll. Milwaukee also has to address shortstop Willy Adames and Woodruff’s contracts following next season. It doesn’t seem feasible that the BrewCrew will be able to retain all three players.
“We can never close the door on any [trade] conversations, as you guys know,” said Brewers general manager Matt Arnold That’s just the reality of where we are.”
Arnold acknowledged to reporters following the season, he is comfortable with heading into 2024 with all three players.
“The foundation is that they’re here and they’re really good players,” Arnold said. “Obviously, anything can happen over the course of an offseason. We’ll certainly have to entertain a lot of different discussions but we recognize the value of these players and how much they mean to our franchise.”
If Boston is going to acquire Burnes, it will cost them top prospect capital even with his impending free agency. While the likes of Marcelo Mayer and Ceddanne Rafaela will be likely the ask in the return for the Brewers, it seems more likely Boston would have to part with Miguel Bleis as the centerpiece of the return.
One scenario the Red Sox could look at it is acquiring outfielder Christian Yelich and eating the remainder of his contract. Yelich has five years left on his deal with an annual AAV of $26 million per season. He also has a mutual option for $20 million in 2029, per Spotrac.
The Red Sox are already left-handed heavy in their lineup, making the idea of adding Yelich to the deal unlikely. If Boston is looking to move Alex Verdugo this winter, Yelich is an option to replace him in the outfield.
Burnes is very good, but some of his numbers on the decline can be concerning for the Red Sox. The right-handed hurler presents a massive upgrade to the Sox rotation especially if they added Japanese pitching sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
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