On to 2024: Ranking each SP free agency fit for Boston Red Sox
Good baseball starts and ends with pitching ... the 2023 Red Sox really struggled to play good, clean baseball.
The 2023 Boston Red Sox ended up being who many thought they were: A competitive, talented team whose inconsistencies kept them from being anything more than a roughly .500 ballclub.
It happens. But “it happens” wasn’t reason enough to keep Chaim Bloom around as Chief Baseball Officer moving forward in the eyes of Fenway Sports Group.
After all, whether counting the COVID-altered 2020 season or not, the Red Sox struggled to piece together rotations that, for one, stayed healthy, and two, actually served the role of a starting pitcher by getting deep into games.
The first order of business for whoever runs point from a baseball ops standpoint this winter should be improving the rotation.
In 2024, there needs to be eyes fixated on making improvements in Boston.
This article kicks off a series of rankings, listing every free agent –– courtesy of Spotrac –– by their fit with the Red Sox organization in 2024 and beyond.
Disclaimer: This is not a power ranking.
Note: On desktop, feel free to skip around to see where I rank players on your offseason wish list.
1. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Orix Buffaloes (NPB)
2023 stats: 15-6 W-L with a 1.26 ERA, 5.96 K/BB in 157 innings
He’s the biggest slam dunk of the entire offseason for the Boston Red Sox.
While there will certainly be question marks surrounding his ability to pitch at a high level in the states, he’ll be 25 years old on Opening Day of 2024. He’s a much more traditional MLB rookie than somebody like outfielder Masataka Yoshida was this season (29 on Opening Day).
Yamamoto has a pretty deceptive stride to the plate –– not quite reminiscent of Carter Capps, but still deceptive –– which makes his fastball much more difficult to hit. His breaking stuff is also very tough to come up with thanks to his funky delivery and hit splitter gets both whiffs and ground balls.
He’s somebody that the organization can feel comfortable about offering a contract in the neighborhood of seven years and potentially upwards of $200 million –– blowing the contract Masahiro Tanaka got from the Yankees before 2015 out of the water.
The Red Sox and Orix have negotiating chemistry thanks to this past winter’s acquisition of Yoshida, who has a reported great relationship with the 25-year-old right-hander.
2. RHP Marcus Stroman — Chicago Cubs
2023 stats: 3.76 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 58.2% ground ball rate and 2.7 fWAR in 131.2 innings
Stroman hasn’t been the same caliber pitcher he was with the Mets or tail-end of his time in Toronto. However, he’s still a phenomenal arm with experience both in the American League East and media circuses.
What makes him more enticing than quite literally all but one pitcher on my ranking is the fact he historically eats innings, keeps the ball on the ground and, even when the ball is elevated, is generally effective at keeping it in the ballpark.
Since 2021, Stroman is fifth among qualifying starters in ground ball rate (53.2%) and tied for 10th in home runs per nine innings (0.83). For reference, Red Sox starters in 2023 had a grounder rate of 44.1% but have allowed the fifth-most homers per nine (1.54).
That’s a big reason Stroman was on my wish list for starting pitching acquisitions at this summer’s trade deadline. However, not only was he not traded, the Cubs saw a chance to contend with this group and were buyers.
There’s not even a guarantee the Sox can get Stroman this winter, as he has a player option for $21 million next season. I’d be shocked if he opted in, given his window to cash in is more closed ahead of his age-34 season than his age-33 season, but there’s no guarantee he will be available.
3. LHP Jordan Montgomery — Texas Rangers
2023 stats: 3.47 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 43.9% ground ball rate and 3.6 fWAR in 168.2 innings
Those who follow me on Twitter/X know that I love me some Jordan Montgomery –– and that dates back to his time with the New York Yankees.
May it be a case of “Jordans need to stick together”? Maybe. But the fact of the matter is Montgomery is a very good arm.
He’ll be 31 in December, which could deter teams from giving him six or seven years on his next contract, but he’s more than worthy of something like four years at $22-$25 million in average annual value (AAV).
Like Stroman, the southpaw has a history of success in the American League East.
Since injuries derailed his age-25 and 26 seasons, he’s actually tied for 10th in baseball in games started and tied for 22nd in innings pitched. He’s super dependable and makes the most sense of all starting pitching free agents, save for Stroman, to settle right into the middle of the Red Sox rotation.
4. RHP Alex Cobb — San Francisco Giants
2023 stats: 3.62 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 57.3% ground ball rate and 1.8 fWAR in 149.1 innings
Yes, he’s going into his age-36 season but Alex Cobb has revived his career in recent years.
I know there will be some hesitation within the fan base to accept committing multiple years to someone on the back nine, especially after seeing the likes of the aforementioned Hill, Garrett Richards, Martín Pérez and Corey Kluber on one-year deals.
However, Cobb pitches like someone who’s got at least three or four years left of quality stuff.
Since bottoming out in Baltimore from 2018 to 2020, he’s throwing harder than ever (95.1 mph average fastball velo), generating grounders at an elite rate (58% since 2021) and also striking guys out more frequently than at any point since 2014.
There are certainly better arms available this winter, but Cobb likely getting two or three years at considerably less AAV makes him a much better fit than some of the Brinks truck receivers following suit.
5. LHP Blake Snell — San Diego Padres
2023 stats: 2.43 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 31.4% strikeout rate and 3.6 fWAR in 167 innings
Snell might win his second Cy Young Award this season … so why on earth is he behind the likes of Montgomery and Cobb?
In short: He’s north of 30, he issues a ton of free passes and doesn’t go deep into ballgames.
He still ranks in the top five because he’s historically very good at preventing runs despite typically being a five-and-dive guy.
So, consider it a courtesy ranking.
6. RHP Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Angeles
2023 pitching stats: 3.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 31.5% strikeout rate and 2.4 fWAR in 132 innings
If Ohtani were actually expected to pitch next year, I’d probably have him second behind Yamamoto.
Be that as it may, the reality is he’s not going to pitch next season for most if not all of next season –– thus, making it hard(er) to justify giving him $45-plus million during the 2024 season.
Moreover, this is the second significant elbow injury in his MLB career. While he may never have another one again, the odds he sticks with doing both pitching and hitting for the duration of a 12-year contract feel slim and that’s a scary dollar figure for a designated hitter.
That said, he’s still a stud and him being essentially two players taking up one roster spot is super helpful long term … it just makes less sense given Year 1 will be spent only being a designated hitter.
7. RHP Sonny Gray — Minnesota Twins
2023 stats: 2.84 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 23.9% strikeout rate and 5.0 fWAR in 174 innings
The 33-year-old Gray feels like someone who’s been destined for Boston at some point –– especially dating back to his days in Oakland.
While he faltered in his first go-around in a big market (Yankees), he’s not the same pitcher he was then.
Today, Gray throws four pitches at least 15% of the time while throwing two others –– a cutter and a changeup –– 7.6% and 6.7% of the time respectively. From a sheer pitch usage standpoint, he’s reminiscent of what Red Sox fans grew accustomed to with Eovaldi in years past.
What knocks him down to seven, however, is his less-than-stellar track record at Fenway Park. Gray is historically very good at keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s pitched to the tune of a 6.84 ERA and an .895 opponent’s OPS in seven career games at Boston.
8. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez — Detroit Tigers
2023 stats: 3.32 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 23.9% strikeout rate and 3.0 fWAR in 135.2 innings
Rodriguez returning to Boston would make a ton of sense for both parties, especially after reports that the left-hander nixed a deadline trade to the Dodgers because he wanted to remain close to his family on the East Coast.
He’d have to opt out of his deal to make this reconciliation happen, but it’s widely believed that’s a foregone conclusion at this point.
Rodriguez has had a very up-and-down career to date, but he’s become one of the best pitchers in the American League since battling back from Myocarditis in 2020.
9. RHP Aaron Nola — Philadelphia Phillies
2023 stats: 4.62 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 24.9% strikeout rate and 3.3 fWAR in 181 innings
Ranking Nola at No. 8 almost feels disrespectful … and I’m the one who came up with the list.
From a talent standpoint, mixed with the possibility he could come cheaper than his talent should yield him, almost makes him destined to be a Red Sox target.
However, Nola has hovered around a 40% fly ball rate since the start of 2021. While being a flyball pitcher at Fenway isn’t necessarily a sign that you’ll struggle, it at least is something to take note of.
While Nola isn’t by definition a flyball pitcher, he gives up his fair share of them and, based on his few most recent seasons, has started to get burned when he does give them up.
That said, the right-hander is still one of the better strikeout-to-walk artists in the game, as he’s 15th among 49 qualified starters in K-BB%.
10. LHP Clayton Kershaw — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 stats: 2.52 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 26.3% strikeout rate and 2.2 fWAR in 121.1 innings
Similar to Snell, this is a courtesy ranking to Kershaw.
If the left-hander were serious about pitching for a team that isn’t the Dodgers, he’d honestly probably be even higher than he is right now. However, it seems like he’ll either be back in Dodger Blue in 2024 or retired.
He’s still a very capable arm when healthy, so it’s unfortunate that no other team will have a real shot to pry him away from Los Angeles. He’s got a great thing there and is about as obvious a lifer as they come.
Ace. Hall of Fame-caliber pitcher, teammate and human being. There’s nothing bad you can say about the 35-year-old Kershaw.
11. RHP Charlie Morton — Atlanta Braves
2023 stats: 3.66 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 25.6% strikeout rate and 2.7 fWAR in 162.1 innings
Morton likely follows a similar fate to Kershaw: He’ll either be back with the Braves or call it a career.
However, the 39-year-old can still pitch with the best of them and has been on the Red Sox’s radar (2021).
12. RHP Seth Lugo — San Diego Padres
2023 stats: 3.83 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 46.4% ground ball rate and 2.4 fWAR in 131.2 innings
Last year at this time, I’d have had no interest in Lugo as a starter if I were in a Red Sox front-office position. But baseball is a fascinating game in the sense that players can figure something out at really any point and become very good.
Lugo is the latest example, only instead of “becoming very good,” –– he already was –– he became a very good starting pitcher.
The right-hander had stretches starting for the New York Mets, but this is his first season making north of 20 starts and he’s responded by having a very good season for the Padres.
Lugo wouldn’t be a sufficient “headliner” signing but he’d be rock solid to pencil in as the Red Sox’ No. 4 starter in 2024 and beyond.
13. RHP Luis Severino — New York Yankees
2023 stats: 6.65 ERA, 6.15 FIP, 18.9% strikeout rate and -0.6 fWAR in 89.1 innings
Could Severino be washed up? Maybe. However, he’s actually one of the more fascinating expected free agents this upcoming winter.
Teams notorious for getting the most out of their starters –– the Dodgers and Rays –– may be champing at the bit to get Severino into their possession at a reduced cost.
Because of that, the Yankees might also be motivated to keep him.
Regardless, the former All-Star is super fascinating, and just 29 years old as well. On a one-year, prove-it deal there’s really no harm in giving him a shot –– especially since he has frontline potential.
14. LHP James Paxton — Boston Red Sox
2023 stats: 4.50 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 24.6% strikeout rate and 1.1 fWAR in 96 innings
It was a tale of three seasons for the southpaw in 2023.
The first season was like his previous three: marred by injury.
The second season was reminiscent of his peak from 2016-19: A couple of duds here and there but otherwise dominant pitching –– he even took home a Pitcher of the Month award.
The third season was unlike any he’s had previously: Burnout.
Paxton is certainly talented and undoubtedly was bothered by both his knee soreness that forced him out of a start earlier this season mixed with fatigue from throwing 70-plus more innings this year than he had since 2020 combined.
However, what drops him down to 13 from perhaps even being a top five-to-seven true talent free-agent starter is the uncertainty surrounding his health.
15. RHP Tyler Mahle — Minnesota Twins
2023 stats: 3.16 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 27.5% strikeout rate and 0.4 fWAR in 25.2 innings
Mahle is likely headed for a rehab year similar to the aforementioned Paxton in 2024.
However, from 2020-22, he’s genuinely become one of the better right-handed pitchers in baseball.
Had Germán Márquez remained a soon-to-be free agent, he and Mahle would’ve been two of my most highly sought-after under-the-radar options because they’re destined for team-friendly deals even on the open market.
Anyway, back to Mahle. His 3.83 FIP and 18.1% K-BB% between 2021 and 2022 both rank pretty highly among righties and are fairly consistent with that of Gray (No. 7). If the Red Sox can get him in the neighborhood of three years, $45 million total, it should be a no-brainer.
16. RHP Frankie Montas — New York Yankees
2022 stats: 4.05 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 23.4% strikeout rate and 2.0 fWAR in 144.1 innings
The former Red Sox farmhand has carved out a very nice career for himself between the White Sox, A’s and Yankees since 2015.
Even though he’s missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, and is unlikely to pitch at all this season, he’s been rehabbing in recent weeks for the Yankees and should be ready to go at some point early next year.
Montas is a very good arm and, had he pitched this season, probably would rank somewhere in the seven-to-nine range on this list for me.
With the exception of 2020, he’s been very good at keeping the ball on the ground since becoming a full-time big-league starting pitcher. He’s also blossomed into a pretty solid strikeout artist.
Save for the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Montas hasn’t walked more than 7.4% of hitters since 2017.
Similar to Mahle, on the right deal, he’d be a very low-risk, high-reward signing for the Red Sox because, at worst, he’s one of the better back-end starters in baseball. At best, he could be All-Star caliber.
17. LHP Shota Imanaga — Yokohama Bay Stars (NPB)
2023 stats: 2.57 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and a 0.99 WHIP in 147 innings
Imanaga was recently reported to be an NPB-posted free agent by Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
The lefty has a track record of dominance overseas, posting a sub-3 ERA and racking up almost 1,200 strikeouts in 190 appearances. He has a very fluid delivery and his fastball has some pretty decent carry to it.
The one drawback is he’s recently turned 30. If there’s one thing FSG has remained consistent on over the years is its desire to not pay free-agent starting pitchers long-term or even a high salary.
They bent at the knee for David Price and Chris Sale and, while both had their share of signature moments and runs for Boston, neither lived up to their respective deals.
I have a hard time believing they will take a chance on the 30-year-old Imanaga, as solid as he could be at the MLB level. They didn’t for Senga; to me, it feels like Yamamoto or bust on the NPB free agents.
18. LHP Andrew Heaney — Texas Rangers
2023 stats: 4.43 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 38.6% hard-hit rate and 1.1 fWAR in 138 innings
Heaney has always been an underlying data darling in his career … really until the past two seasons.
This year, it’s been a little bit of a struggle for the 32-year-old left-hander, who signed a two-year deal for $25 million with the Rangers this past winter.
With the second year being a player option, it’s possible that he views his “hometown team” –– he’s from Oklahoma –– as a bad fit for his skill set.
Not that Fenway is a much better fit for Heaney, as he’s one of the 15-most homer-prone starters (on a per-flyball basis) since the 2014 season. He jumps into the top five among active starters in that category.
That doesn’t mean he can’t be successful in Boston, but it does hamper him as a particularly good fit for the Bean.
19. RHP Kenta Maeda — Minnesota Twins
2023 stats: 4.50 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 26.1% strikeout rate and 1.4 fWAR in 96 innings
Those who follow me on social media know that I randomly get a case of Kenta Fever.
And, while injuries have derailed his career since 2021, he’s still proven to be effective when healthy.
However, the one significant drawback of Maeda is he’s historically not great at keeping the ball on the ground. It’s never really hindered his production, with the exception of 2021, but it’s something he’d have to worry more about at Fenway Park.
That said, it isn’t a death sentence for a pitcher to be primarily dependent on fly balls going for batted-ball outs in Boston. For reference, Kenley Jansen is in the midst of his worst ground ball and strikeout season yet still has a mid-three ERA and is 29-for-33 in save chances.
Jansen, though, is a one-inning specialist, whereas Maeda would be counted on for at least five every time out.
At 35 years old, it’s hard to judge what a potential deal-length for the right-hander would look like. But as far as back-end starters go, he’s certainly one of the better ones the Sox could target.
20. RHP Lance Lynn — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 stats: 5.94 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 23.8% strikeout rate and 0.5 fWAR in 166.2 innings
Lynn is someone who’s lost his muster a bit over the years, both due to injuries and the sheer lack of competitive baseball that’s gone on with the White Sox organization over the years.
However, even at 36, he’s one of the better work-horses in baseball and undoubtedly will have a chip on his shoulder after his struggles of 2023 likely leading to his club option getting declined by the Dodgers.
I liked Lynn as a potential trade deadline acquisition this summer … I like him a little less as a free-agent pickup though. If the Red Sox opt for someone 35 or older, it probably shouldn’t be someone on the decline.
21. RHP Lucas Giolito — Cleveland Guardians
2023 stats: 4.69 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 26.1% strikeout rate and 1.3 fWAR in 170.2 innings
Every pitching coach in the league is going to say to Giolito the same thing Sam says to Miss Katherine in Holes, “I can fix that.”
Maybe they can, maybe they can’t, but the talent of the former White Sox ace is too enticing to scoff at.
He ranks at No. 21 for me because the Red Sox need floor raisers, as well as ceiling raisers, in their 2024 rotation and I’m not sure which one to call Giolito at this moment.
That confusion alone is enough for him to drop below the likes of Maeda and Lynn, despite being six-plus years younger than both.
22. LHP Alex Wood — San Francisco Giants
2023 stats: 4.55 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 45.3% ground ball rate and 0.1 fWAR in 87 innings
Every time Wood is about to be a free agent, I get super excited. He’s someone I’ve pegged to be a Red Sox since the end of 2018. However, every season since then, when he’s soon-to-be-available, he has a really down year.
In 2023, he’s striking out a career-low, walking a career-high and generating ground balls at his lowest rate since his 48-ish inning sample between two injury-plagued seasons in 2019 and 2020.
And yet, I still think he’d make sense on a one-year, prove-it-type deal for the Red Sox in 2024. I’d even sign off on a one-year deal with a club option, a la the deals they’ve given to the likes of Martín Pérez and Garrett Richards in the past, albeit under a different regime.
23. RHP Michael Wacha — San Diego Padres
2023 stats: 3.43 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 21.9% strikeout rate and 1.9 fWAR in 115.1 innings
Old Friend Alert! The red flags that surrounded Wacha entering last winter led him to perhaps one of the weirdest contracts given out in recent years.
Yet, despite all of the red flags, he’s been just as good in 2023 for the Padres as he was with the Red Sox last year.
He technically could become a free agent after any of the next three seasons but, after a strong campaign this year, I wonder if he’d test the market again this winter in hopes of a more secure contract.
The main reason Wacha ranks so low –– middle of the pack in this ranking –– is that he’s 32 years old and doesn’t do much in terms of improving the ceiling of the rotation.
Given what he’d likely earn as a free agent this winter, I’d probably steer clear of him.
24. RHP Jack Flaherty — Baltimore Orioles
2023 stats: 5.03 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 22.7% strikeout rate and 1.7 fWAR in 141.1 innings
For the first time since 2019, the right-hander held up for a full season. However, he’s not the same dominant, ace-like arm he was with St. Louis four years ago.
In all seriousness, he’s similar to Paxton in the sense that it could be a case of burnout. After all, this is his first time logging more than 78.1 innings since the aforementioned 2019 campaign.
He’s decent and gets ground balls at a pretty decent clip (42.9%), but his walks have been way up the past two seasons, and, like Paxton, who’s to say he doesn’t get burned out next year?
25. RHP Michael Lorenzen — Philadelphia Phillies
2023 stats: 4.06 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 40.9% ground ball rate and 1.7 fWAR in 148.2 innings
It’s going to seem personal, but I promise you it isn’t. I’ve just never been in love with Michael Lorenzen: the Starter.
He’s certainly decent, but his strikeouts took a nosedive from roughly 24% in 2019 and 2020 down to 17.8% in 2023.
Sure, he’s pretty solid in run prevention, but with his reduction in Ks comes a reduction in ground ball rate as well. There are just too many balls put in play against him to not worry about him getting hit by the regression stick in front of the Green Monster.
26. RHP Kyle Hendricks — Chicago Cubs
2023 stats: 3.77 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 16.3% strikeout rate and 2.5 fWAR in 126.2 innings
If not for Corey Kluber flashbacks every time he took the mound, I’d probably have Hendricks in the teens somewhere.
After a couple of meh seasons in a row, he’s back to being a high-grounder artist with minuscule walk metrics.
He’s not a strikeout pitcher and hasn’t been since the mid-2010s but he can still pitch and eat innings, two things the 2023 Red Sox lacked for much of the season.
I would probably steer clear of the 33-year-old, but it wouldn’t be a bad signing on a two-year deal to round out the back end.
27. RHP Kyle Gibson — Baltimore Orioles
2023 stats: 4.98 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 49.1% ground ball rate and 2.4 fWAR in 175.1 innings
Gibson is both durable and something of a peripheral darling despite never really being a plus-strikeout pitcher.
His calling card is he keeps the ball on the ground. However, he’s also been super prone to the gopher ball since he debuted with Minnesota back in 2013.
Similar to Hendricks before him, on a very short-term deal, it honestly would be a decent move for the Red Sox to shore up the back end of the rotation. If they added, say, Yamamoto and Gibson to make the rotation …
Yamamoto
Sale (L)
Bello
Gibson
Crawford/Houck/Pivetta
… they’d be in pretty decent shape.
The Orioles are 17-13 when Gibson pitches this year, which counts for something. However, he’s about as up-and-down as they come, sporting a 3.11 ERA in his 14 wins but an ERA north of six in his 16 losses/no-decisions.
28. RHP Mike Clevinger — Chicago White Sox
2023 stats: 3.61 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 21.1% strikeout rate and 2.2 fWAR in 114.2 innings
The 2023 season has been kinder to Clevinger than last year was. However, he’s still nowhere near the arm he blossomed into with the Guardians as recently as 2019.
He’s in a lot of ways similar to Flaherty, except without the clear burnout. That said, there’s some off-field baggage that follows the 32-year-old around like a dark cloud.
Despite the lack of ground balls and his strikeout numbers tapering off, I still do like his stuff. That said, I am not in love with the noise he’d come with and the 2024 Red Sox could use a year off from PR nightmares.
29. LHP Hyun Jin Ryu — Toronto Blue Jays
2023 stats: 2.62 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 47.8% ground ball rate and 0.7 fWAR in 44.2 innings
Over the years, I’ve grown to have a deeper appreciation for Asian Baseball Leagues. Ryu has been worth every bit the hype he coveted from his time in the KBO.
Injuries killed him early in his career, as well as the past two seasons. He’s still a decent arm, but a man who will be 37 in March, with diminished stuff and velocity, just doesn’t move the needle enough for the Red Sox.
In fact, if they were going to take a chance on Ryu this winter, they’d have been better suited to keep Bloom on staff because these kinds of signings have become commonplace to fill out his rotations.
30. LHP Martin Perez — Texas Rangers
2023 stats: 4.65 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 44.3% ground ball rate and 0.2 fWAR in 131.2 innings
Perez was one of the most-liked pitchers the Red Sox had under Bloom’s leadership. However, that doesn’t make him a particularly good pitcher.
Surprisingly, the southpaw was an All-Star in 2022 after not having an ERA below four since 2013, his first go-around with the Rangers.
This year is a bit more in line with the Perez we’ve come to know in his career: mid-four ERA, high peripherals, less-than-appetizing strikeout numbers and a season finished in the bullpen.
He’s a familiar face, and still surprisingly young at just 32 years old. So him rounding out the 20s is more because of that than his actual ability at this stage of his career.
31. LHP Dallas Keuchel — Minnesota Twins
2023 stats: 5.34 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 51.9% ground ball rate and 0.2 fWAR in 30.1 innings
It’s been a long road back to the majors for the 35-year-old Keuchel, who has had a very decorated career with two All-Star selections, five Gold Gloves, a Cy Young and a World Series title.
In his redemption tour with the Twins, he’s had four good outings and three bad ones. However, in his past five outings, he has a 4.18 ERA and sub-four FIP with 17 strikeouts in 23.2 innings.
If he’s willing to take a minor-league deal, which I doubt given the work he’s done just to get back to MLB, I think he’d make sense for the Red Sox as non-roster depth next Spring.
However, the reality is it’s probably best for the Red Sox to aim for a higher ceiling.
32. LHP Rich Hill — San Diego Padres
2023 stats: 5.53 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 19.2% strikeout rate and 0.6 fWAR in 143.1 innings
This would be Hill’s fourth stint with the Red Sox should the two sides come together on an agreement again.
He’s 43 but still seems determined to pitch in 2024. I’d count my blessings that he was pretty good in 2022 and keep a good rapport for a potential coaching staff position when he retires.
As a pitcher, he just doesn’t do much in terms of raising either the floor or ceiling of this team and I would hate to see Hill’s Red Sox, perhaps even MLB, career end on a bad note.
33. RHP Joe Ross — San Francisco Giants
DNP in 2023 (Tommy John Surgery recovery)
The 2021 season was something of a mini-return to form for Ross, who hasn’t pitched since then at the MLB level.
I think he’s somebody who could end up having a career revival in 2024 for the right organization, and I think Boston could be that organization.
He’s likely not going to sign an MLB deal, or even sign with a team and instantly be on their 40-man roster. Because of that, mixed with the glaring need for the Red Sox to improve their MLB rotation, Ross slips all the way down to 31.
He has a decent fastball that plays up because he’s in the top 25% in extension. While he could improve his ground ball rate, it’s not low enough historically to think signing him would be a death wish.
34. RHP Ross Stripling — San Francisco Giants
2023 stats: 5.40 ERA, 5.43 FIP, 3.91 xFIP and -0.4 fWAR in 81.2 innings
Stripling has been about as Jekyll and Hyde as they come since he left the Dodgers in 2020.
However, he’s proven to be a pretty solid MLB pitcher over his career.
Injuries and inconsistent play have crushed his numbers this season, likely meaning the 33-year-old gets nothing more than a one- or two-year prove-it deal this winter.
35. RHP Brad Keller — Kansas City Royals
2023 stats: 4.76 ERA, 5.93 FIP, 58.3% ground ball rate and -0.2 fWAR in 45.1 innings
Save for 2020, Keller has had a very difficult time replicating the success of his rookie season in 2018.
This year, between a nearly season-ending shoulder injury and struggles to consistently keep runs off the board, Keller likely won’t get much more than a one-year deal for a low salary.
Could he be a decent flier guy for the Red Sox? Maybe. But besides his high ground ball rate, there isn’t much to be impressed with by Keller.
36. RHP Julio Teheran — Milwaukee Brewers
2023 stats: 4.74 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 13.0% strikeout-to-walk rate and 0.3 fWAR in 62.2 innings
Even though the 32-year-old isn’t the same pitcher he was back in the early 2010s, it’s nostalgic seeing him pitch again at the MLB level.
Unfortunately, he’s been sidelined with a hip injury and, despite his success at avoiding Ball 4, hasn’t been able to return to the caliber pitcher he was as recently as 2019 with Atlanta.
Similar to Keller and Stripling before him, he’s somebody who could be intriguing as a flier guy but not really much more.
37. LHP Danny Duffy — Texas Rangers
DNP in 2023 (forearm)
Even in Duffy’s heyday, he struggled mightily at Fenway Park.
Sure, he wouldn’t have to face right-handed sluggers like Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez this go-around, but it’s probably not worth the risk to sign someone without an MLB inning since 2021.
38. LHP Wade Miley — Milwaukee Brewers
2023 stats: 3.38 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 45.0% ground ball rate and 0.7 fWAR in 109.1 innings
Miley has actually carved out a really nice career for himself since his underrated yet tumultuous tenure with the Red Sox in 2015.
Since 2018, he’s actually 22nd among starters with a minimum of 500 innings with a 3.50 ERA — ahead of the likes of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Charlie Morton and Carlos Rodon.
That comes with a few caveats, of course. For instance, three of the six seasons saw him pitch fewer than 81 innings, but he’s still at a 3.38 ERA this season in just shy of 110 frames.
It would be pretty entertaining for his career to lead him back to Boston after the “Five Aces” debacle of 2015, but he’s still proven he can overcome iffy underlying metrics and keep runs off the board.
39. RHP Carlos Carrasco — New York Mets
2023 stats: 6.80 ERA, 5.86 FIP, 45.0% ground ball rate and -0.3 fWAR in 90 innings
I’m a sucker for a good story, and a good story Carlos Carrasco is.
Dating back to his days in Cleveland, even before his triumphant victory in his cancer battle, I was a massive fan of the now-36-year-old right-hander.
Age is the big deterrent in terms of giving him a deal and seeing if he can bounce back, but he’s someone with the talent to bounce back, even in his later seasons.
40. LHP Julio Urias — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 stats: 4.80 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 24.3% strikeout rate and 1.2 fWAR in 117.1 innings
I don’t care about the potential this left-hander has. He only doesn’t rank last because he’s a proven MLB pitcher in his mid-20s. But two domestic violence cases in his career cast too much of a shadow over his employment to even warrant interest.
No thanks.
41. RHP Jonny Cueto — Miami Marlins
2023 stats: 6.20 ERA, 6.59 FIP, 18.6% strikeout rate and -0.5 fWAR in 45 innings
Cueto is a tough read despite having a bad season at the age of 37, mostly because he had a “turn back the clock” season with the White Sox in 2022.
Similar to guys like Carrasco before him, he’s probably too old to gamble on bouncing back next season. Not that his skillset as a flyball pitcher with limited strikeout production bodes well at Fenway, but the age is a real killer here.
Maybe a minor-league deal, but I’d probably not pay too much attention to the former Reds great.
42. RHP Corey Kluber — Boston Red Sox
2023 stats: 7.04 ERA, 7.11 FIP, 16.3% strikeout rate and -0.8 fWAR in 55 innings
Certainly a forgettable year for the former multi-time Cy Young winner and one of the best pitchers of his era.
Not every Kluber outing was a dud, but it certainly felt like it at times.
He did record his first major league save in his final outing of the season, though he gave up three homers and four runs in three innings en route. So, that was kind of “fun(ny?).”
43. LHP Tommy Milone — Seattle Mariners
2023 stats: 2.00 ERA, 6.04 FIP, 32.3% ground ball rate and -0.1 fWAR in nine innings
The last season Milone made more than 10 starts was during the Obama administration, as was the last time he made more than two appearances with an ERA below 4.76.
Even with as bad as Kluber and Cueto were in 2023, Milone makes even less sense for the Red Sox, even on a minor-league deal.
44. RHP Zach Davies — Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 stats: 6.81 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 44.8% ground ball rate and 0.9 fWAR in 79.1 innings
Davies used to be one of the more dependable arms in baseball from about 2016 to 2020.
However, now he’s got a sky-high ERA and is also marred with allegations of domestic violence.
Like Urias … no thanks.
45. RHP Zack Greinke — Kansas City Royals
2023 stats: 5.39 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 44.0% ground ball rate and 0.6 fWAR in 128.2 innings
This would be quite the immaculate grid square around 2030 when Greinke makes the Hall of Fame.
However, between his lackluster performance this season, his age and the documentation of his severe anxiety, it just wouldn’t make sense for either party if they were to marry.
I love Greinke though. What a joy he’s been to watch and what an impact he’s had on the game during his career.
46. RHP Adam Wainwright — St. Louis Cardinals
2023 stats: 7.95 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 39.3% ground ball rate and -0.5 fWAR in 94 innings
He’s retiring at season’s end.
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