Red Sox Defense Full of Surprises in 2023
Boston's defense has rated poorly so far this season, but it's not all bad for the Sox
The Boston Red Sox have a record of 28-25 about a third of the way through the season, placing them fourth in the division and three games back of an American League Wild Card spot.
The offense has been a surprise, ranking near the top of the AL in several categories including average (4th), runs (3rd), RBI (3rd), on-base (T-3rd), and slugging (3rd). Credit to Masataka Yoshida (134 WRC+) and Alex Verdugo (125 WRC+) for leading the charge.
The pitching has left more to be desired, as inconsistency has led to a bottom-five ERA (4.68) and WHIP (1.31) in addition to the fourth most runs allowed in the AL. There is optimism to be had, as starters Chris Sale and Tanner Houck have shown flashes of excellence and rotational roles are becoming more concrete.
While Boston’s pitching has been the focus of the team’s struggles, a significant chunk can be attributed to the defense, as the Red Sox have been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball through the first third of the season.
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): -17 (27th in MLB)
Outs Above Average (OAA): -7 (23rd in MLB)
These struggles have undoubtedly impacted the pitching staff and cost the team several wins. Breaking it down positionally, we can see where improvements must be made.
Can you go wrong with Wong?
Connor Wong has been one of the great surprises of the 2023 season, thanks largely to his prowess in stopping the running game. He is third among all qualified catchers in caught stealing percentage (33%), backed by his elite 1.89 second pop time to second base (6th in MLB).
In that aspect, it’s easy to see why he has continually garnered considerable playing time over Reese McGuire, who has thrown out just one runner in 22 attempts (4% CS).
Connor Wong is fourth in MLB in Catcher’s CS Above Average (+4) at 2B. His estimated CS% is 16%. His actual is 35%.
McGuire is 55th out of 59 qualified catchers with -3 CS Above Average.
Though Wong’s throwing dominance seems to make him the clear No.1, McGuire actually bests him in other key components of the catching game. For example, whereas Wong rates quite poorly in both Catcher Framing Runs and Blocks Above Average, McGuire is about average.
McGuire bests Wong in both Catcher Framing runs (CFR) and Blocks Above Average (BAA) per Statcast.
CFR:
McGuire (0) ➡️ 28th of 59 qualified C
Wong (-2) ➡️ 52 of 59
BAA:
McGuire (0) ➡️ 27th of 63
Wong (-3) ➡️ 54st of 63
However, for what it’s worth, Boston pitchers have posted a 4.14 ERA with Wong catching versus a 5.56 ERA with McGuire behind the plate.
Wong’s control of the run game and work with the pitching staff have helped him accumulate four DRS (top 30 overall in MLB). He should continue to see the bulk of the work behind the plate but needs to improve in areas to become a more complete catcher.
Story of inconsistency at short
The Red Sox middle infield still hasn’t really settled in following a turbulent offseason in which the team lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency and Trevor Story to UCL surgery.
Story was perhaps the team’s best defender in 2022 (10 OAA) and was slated to take over at short in 2023. He has resumed throwing but will not return until at least midseason.
In the meantime, Boston has attempted to cobble together a middle infield of largely unproven defenders to hold down the fort, using six different starters at second base and five at shortstop this season (including Bobby Dalbec).
Kiké Hernandez was tasked early on with manning short full-time and made a whopping five errors in his first eight games. It was fortunate that Yu Chang was able to step in during Hernandez’s defensive slump, as the former proceeded to record +3 OAA in just 91 innings thanks to an absurd 9% success rate added on tough chances in the field.
Chang’s 97% success rate at shortstop is eight percent higher than any other infielder at a single position in 2023 (min. 25 attempts). While converting plays at that rate is surely unsustainable (no infielder has posted a success rate above 90% in the Statcast era - min. 50 attempts), it’s still an impressive feat.
A hamate injury to Chang in late April thrust Hernandez back into the starting role at short, and, while he has improved, his -5 OAA is still the third-worst mark by a shortstop this season. Fielding Bible is somewhat kinder with a -1 DRS designation that still places him toward the back of the pack.
The poor performance has to be frustrating considering Hernandez chose to play centerfield for Puerto Rico in the Word Baseball Classic this spring instead of remaining in camp to get reps at shortstop. For an athlete who has the tools necessary to be a successful shortstop, a lack of consistent experience at the position seems to be the only handicap.
At second base, Enmanuel Valdez emerged as the go-to starter due to Christian Arroyo’s strained hamstring. A bat-first prospect who was given a 40-grade in the field, Valdez has unsurprisingly labored defensively with -4 OAA and -4 DRS.
Boston’s primary starters at second and short have been two of the worst statistical defenders in baseball this season. Not a recipe for success.
Concern on the corners?
Speaking of bat-first players, Rafael Devers has continued to make strides at third base after long being considered a liability in the field.
Turning himself from a well-below-average defender to about average is a significant upgrade considering his ability with the bat. Statcast actually rates him as above average at third this season, as his OAA totals have steadily improved over the past three years.
2021: -14
2022: -2
2023: +1
On the opposite side of the diamond, Triston Casas has struggled at first base despite being touted as a solid defender in his ascent through the minor leagues. He has recorded -4 OAA and -4 DRS through the initial third of his first full big-league season.
While growing pains are sometimes inevitable for young players, one has to wonder if maybe Justin Turner, who has been somewhat more serviceable at first statistically (+0 OAA, -1 DRS), should start seeing more reps in the field with Casas at DH.
It probably makes more sense to let the younger player work things out.
Red Sox Primary Infielders In 2023 by OAA/DRS:
Casas: -4 / -4
Valdez: -4 / -4
Hernandez: -5 / -1
Devers: +1 / 0
Reasons for optimism
Contrary to the infield, which has been predominantly responsible for Boston’s defensive woes in 2023, the outfield has provided solid play thus far.
Outs Above Average in 2023:
Infield: -9 (25th)
Outfield: +1 (12th)
The re-emergence of Alex Verdugo as an above-average defender has helped solidify the outfield defense. His five DRS rank him as a top-five right fielder in MLB and his two OAA support the resurgence.
Verdugo rated poorly defensively last season (as previously analyzed) but has been nearly perfect so far. He has converted all but two opportunities with a catch probability of 80% or higher and added five catches on batted balls with catch probabilities ranging from 30-65%.
But perhaps the most impressive turnaround belongs to Jarren Duran, who improved his defense in part by shagging batting practice from his former high school team this offseason.
Duran has converted every opportunity with a catch probability over 45 percent this season (all but three chances overall: 45%, 10%, 5%). His success rate of 97% is the third-best out of 104 qualified outfielders per Statcast.
Duran’s dominance in centerfield can be linked to his elite reaction time and much-improved route running.
Jarren Duran’s Jump Breakdown from 2022-23 per Statcast:
2022: Reaction (1.6) / Burst (0.6) / Route (-1.5) ➡️ 0.7 Ft vs Avg
2023: Reaction (2.5) / Burst (1.4) / Route (-0.4) ➡️ 3.6 Ft vs Avg
Masataka Yoshida has rated poorly in left this season but most of the value lost has been on borderline plays near the Green Monster. He’s probably closer to an average defender than he’s been credited for. Rob Refsynder and Rafael Tapia have been serviceable fill-in players at all three outfield positions.
Adam Duvall will begin his rehab assignment with the Woo Sox this evening and should have the ability to provide good defense in center field, but it may make more sense to keep Duran’s production in center with Duvall and Verdugo on the corners to have elite defenders at all three positions.
It’s likely that either Duran or Casas is the odd man out once Duvall returns, considering the structure of the roster. Duvall in left would mean Yoshida to DH, pushing Turner to first.
It can be tricky for teams to figure out how to maximize offensive potential without sacrificing defense. To be most successful, Boston will have to find a way to improve their fielding without losing firepower at the plate.
Overall Defensive Grades
Catchers:
McGuire: C+ / Wong: A-
First Base:
Casas: C- / Turner: C+
Second Base:
Valdez: D / Arroyo: B
Shortstop:
Chang: A / Hernandez: C
Third Base:
Devers: B
Left Field:
Yoshida: C+
Center Field:
Duran: A+
Right Field:
Verdugo: A
Some of the defensive improvement will ideally come with more playing time and experience for younger players such as Casas and Valdez. Regardless, reinforcements are inbound from the IL (Chang, Duvall, Story, etc.) and should be ready to step in to save runs in the field.
Defense will make a major difference in the win (and loss) column down the stretch.
When Duvall returns, I think Tapia may be the odd man out