Can the Red Sox rely on Alex Verdugo in right field?

Verdugo’s poor defensive metrics in 2022 don’t tell the full story

Verdugo struggled defensively by the metrics in 2022 (via Abbie Parr/AP Photo)

By judging Alex Verdugo solely off his cumulative defensive metric totals in 2022, you would think he was a liability in the outfield for the Boston Red Sox. Verdugo had -4 outs above average (13th percentile) and -5 defensive runs saved over the course of the season.

The totals didn’t make a lot of sense for a relatively-athletic, young outfielder who is well-known for his arm strength. The 26-year-old ranks sixth in Major League Baseball with 17 outfield assists over the past two seasons and has routinely ranked above average in sprint speed.

Baseball Savant measures the difficulty of plays based on catch probability (calculated by hang time and OF’s proximity to the landing spot). Stars are assigned to plays based on this factor with five being the highest honor.

Verdugo made three five-star catches in 2022. He had only made one prior to the season.

Ryan Medeiros @RRyanmedeiros

Verdugo recorded a career-high three five-star catches in 2022. Batter / Catch Prob. / Opp. Time / Feet Covered Walsh / 15% / 5.7 sec / 102ft Hasse / 15% / 2.6 sec / 28 ft Sheets / 5% / 4.7 sec / 84 ft He had one such play prior to 2022 (via Baseball Savant)

Over the course of the season, Verdugo showed he had the ability to make elite defensive plays, adding a multitude of three and four-star catches to his highlight reel.

How did he accrue negative value in 2022?

For one, he was eaten up by the Green Monster in a myriad of plays. Verdugo expressed that he felt left field at Fenway stifled his range.

Verdugo via The Athletic: “In left field (at Fenway), if it’s anything over my head it’s basically, get around it and play it off the wall.”

Thus, he lost significant value on plays near or off the wall that were deemed fairly easy chances by catch probability (85% or higher). The metrics do not factor in the Monster.

Ryan Medeiros @RRyanmedeiros

Verdugo was unable to convert several plays at the wall that were rated as easy conversions based on catch probability. Play 1 - 85% Play 2 - 95% Play 3 - 95% There were a few similar plays not included in the highlights (via Savant)

In addition, Verdugo lost value over a few freak plays that should have been easy outs (80+ catch probability).

Ryan Medeiros @RRyanmedeiros

Verdugo was dinged for some other strange plays with factors largely out of his control (sun, potential collisions). Play 1 - 99% catch prob. Play 2 - 99% Play 3 - 80% (All data/footage via Savant)

The metrics don’t factor in blinding sun in right field or another fielder bearing down on a player in their periphery.

But, even casting outliers aside, the advanced numbers indicated a dip in Verdugo’s ability to accelerate in the outfield. In 2020, he had the 11th-best outfield jump in MLB (+2.5 ft vs avg), aided by an excellent +1.6 burst measurement (i.e. acceleration after initial jump).

That number cratered to -0.1 in 2021 and further declined to a -0.5 mark in 2022.

It was revealed that Verdugo attempted to bulk up for more power at the plate over the past season or so, which could have cost him a step in the outfield. In addition, Verdugo’s brother, Chris, said that he played the first two months of the 2022 season with a fractured toe.

But there’s one generally overlooked factor that may have the greatest impact on a potential defensive revival for Verdugo in 2023.

Positional consistency

Verdugo wasn’t graded as a top defensive outfielder during his time in the Los Angeles Dodgers system, though some scouts credited his defensive instincts for allowing him to spend 2618.1 innings (69.8%) of his minor-league career in center field. 

In the major leagues, Verdugo hasn’t truly been able to settle into a position (48% LF / 25% CF / 27% RF). That’s not a great thing for a player who relies on strong reads/jumps to be an efficient outfielder.

In 2021, Verdugo’s worst defensive season of his career (-5 OAA), he was bounced around the outfield, starting 79 games in left, 38 in center and 19 in right. Verdugo struggled defensively range-wise (-5 OAA / -5 PART) when he was tasked with playing 337 innings in center field.

Ryan Medeiros @RRyanmedeiros

Being moved around the outfield could have had an effect on Verdugo’s reads over the past few years. He struggled in 2021 (-5 OAA) during a season in which he played 79 games in LF, 38 in CF and 19 in RF. Here’s a good example of a play in which he got a poor read/jump :

In his best defensive season, 2019, the Dodgers allowed him to play 63% of his innings in CF, where he graded as above average.

Ryan Medeiros @RRyanmedeiros

Verdugo proved to be a capable CF in 2019 during his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who gave him consistent playing time at the position. He picked up his first career five-star catch that season (via Savant).

Perhaps the acquisition of Masataka Yoshida to play left field will allow Verdugo to settle into right. Verdugo’s amalgamation of three, four and five-star plays prove that he has the ability to make an impact in the field. Potentially, familiarizing himself with one position will help him make them more regularly. 

Verdugo via The Athletic: “Honestly, if they want to keep me in right, that’s fine…ideally, I want to stay in one position.” | “I think the biggest thing is in right field I’m able to run…I have space to run down balls more.”

Playing right field full-time would allow Verdugo to finally settle into a position, let his instincts and arm play, and avoid being stifled by the Monster in left field.

Why does it matter?

Defense is going to be crucial for the 2023 Red Sox, with an emphasis on acquiring strike throwers this offseason (Corey Kluber - 3.0 BB% / Chris Martin - 2.2 / Richard Bleier - 4.5) and more innings for Garrett Whitlock (4.8) and Chris Sale (career 5.3) meaning more balls in play. 

Expect to see Verdugo’s defense play an important role with an uptick in opportunities in right field. He has the talent to be an impact defender, he just has to show it more consistently.

Ryan Medeiros @RRyanmedeiros

Consistent playing time in right field in 2023 should lead to more plays like this for Verdugo. More in-depth analysis to come!

Follow Ryan on Twitter @RRyanMedeiros

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