Ranking the top catches by Red Sox outfielders this season
Ranking the top catches by Red Sox outfielders this season
Using Statcast's catch probability to measure the top five most difficult plays made by Boston outfielders in 2023
Yesterday evening, I polled fans on X (Twitter) to see which Boston Red Sox outfielder they believed had made the best catch of the 2023 season based on Statcast’s catch probability.
The results were as follows:
Jarren Duran — 40%
Alex Verdugo — 37%
Masataka Yoshida — 18%
Adam Duvall — 5%
Boston’s defense has been under a microscope for most of the 2023 season, so let’s take a look at how the fans did.
T1. Alex Verdugo — May 19th @ San Diego
Verdugo’s snag against the Padres on May 19th had an estimated catch probability of just 30%.
But it’s actually TIED with another grab for the lowest probability catch on the season…
T1. Adam Duvall — July 30th @ San Francisco
Adam Duvall did not get a lot of love in the poll, but this liner against the Giants on July 30th had just a 30% catch probability as well.
The baserunner was so confident it would land for a hit that he broke for home right on contact. Not a wise decision.
T3. Alex Verdugo — August 10th vs Kansas City
The third lowest probability catch goes to another double play and another Verdugo grab.
Verdugo was given just a 45% chance on a sliding snag against the Royals on August 10th. He’s had quite the defensive resurgence this season.
T3. Raimel Tapia — May 7th @ Philadelphia
Remember Raimel Tapia? He was awarded a four-star catch for this 45% probability play against Bryce Harper and the Phillies back on May 7th.
Tapia was designated for assignment and subsequently released by Boston on June 11th, as outfield reinforcements inbound from the injured list made him expendable.
5. Masataka Yoshida — May 30th vs Cinncinati
Fifth place goes to Yoshida for an excellent read to rob the Reds on May 30th.
Just a 50% estimated chance…a coin flip if you will.
Yoshida’s had a rough defensive debut overall (-6 outs above average) but has shown an occasional flash of the leather too.
Where’s Jarren Duran?
Wondering where Jarren Duran is? He led the poll with 40% of the vote.
The two grabs above are tied with two Verdugo plays for sixth in the rankings (both with 55% probability).
He’s been oh-so-close to making some incredible plays this season.
This play against the Giants would have been one of the best catches in baseball this year (10% catch probability).
A few of Duran’s notable robberies have fairly high catch probabilities due to the amount of time he was given to get back to the wall.
The play below was given a 95% catch probability due to its hang time — though it’s still aesthetically pleasing.
It’s important to note that in no way are these rankings indicative of each player’s overall defensive performance so far this season (Duran has obviously been more valuable than Yoshida defensively).
But each of the aforementioned plays is representative of the player’s relative capabilities when it comes to defensive ceilings. If a player has the ability to make a tough play, then they have the capability to make them more consistently.