Leandre: Top 30 first basemen entering 2024, 20-11
The middle third of the top 30 first basemen entering 2024 features a couple of World Series champions.
The middle third of this top 30 first basemen list features a couple of World Series champions as well as some runner-ups.
This position is not one known for its defensive value; it’s the least valuable on the field. The job of a first baseman is to make routine plays — except for the occasional pick in the dirt — and hit the ball at a comfortably above-average clip.
Save for one member of this group, everyone slated between Nos. 20 and 11 had a wRC+ of 114 or better in 2023, with four of them posting at least a 120.
Before naming them, let’s quickly recap the first basemen ranked from 30th to 21st.
And now for the next 10.
20. Alex Kirilloff — Minnesota Twins
It may have only been 88 games, but Kirilloff broke out in 2023. Following two seasons in which he amassed 0.3 fWAR, 11 home runs and a 91 wRC+ in 104 games, he posted 0.8 fWAR, 11 home runs and a 120 wRC+.
Two things contributed to Kirilloff’s success last year: an increased walk rate and more fly balls finding the seats. He didn’t see a major increase in quality of contact — his hard-hit rate dropped nearly 8% from 2022. However, he hit more line drives, coinciding with a drastically decreased grounder rate, and saw 18.3% of his fly balls leave the ballpark.
Defensively, he was a mess in 2023 with -8 DRS and -7 OAA in 510 defensive innings. Until that improves, coupled with sustained offensive success, the late-teens-to-early-twenties is where Kirilloff will stay.
19. Ryan Mountcastle — Baltimore Orioles
The evidence against ranking Mountcastle higher is nothing if not circumstantial.
I firmly believe this guy has the tools to be a top 12-ish first baseman in MLB … Baltimore just doesn’t allow for it.
Last year was the best “bang for your buck” season of the 27-year-old’s career. In 115 games, he matched his career-high 1.7 fWAR with a career-high in batting average and on-base percentage.
The power played a role as well as Mountcastle slugged 18 home runs to couple his 114 wRC+ despite drastically underperforming his xwOBA for the second year in a row.
Since the start of 2022, Mountcastle has a .329 wOBA at home; respectable, but nothing special. However, he has a .366 xwOBA at Camden Yards — if he can get to a ballpark that fits his swing better, he’s going to take off.
18. Nathaniel Lowe — Texas Rangers
Lowe had a good 2023 season after an All-Star-caliber campaign in 2022. His ranking of 20th isn’t a knock on him for “regressing,” it has more to do with who I think he is as a hitter.
For his career, Lowe has a 120 wRC+, however, his only season (out of five) with a wRC+ over 120 was in 2022.
He’s firmly a good hitter with the potential to have great stretches, I just don’t see him as an elite-level bat.
17. Brandon Drury — Los Angeles Angels
I don’t think people appreciate the work Drury put in to revive his career.
Through his first 456 games as a big leaguer, he slashed .248/.296/.411 with an 81 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR. In 314 games since, he’s slashing .263/.313/.493 with a 119 wRC+ and 5.7 fWAR.
Perhaps first base is the wrong position to rank Drury ahead of 2024, as FanGraphs’ RosterResource projects him to be the Angels’ DH with Nolan Schanuel at first.
However, I think he has the offense to hold up there should a team pull the trigger on acquiring him.
16. Rhys Hoskins — Milwaukee Brewers
Sixteenth is a peculiar ranking for Hoskins coming off of a lost year to an ACL injury.
To be honest, there are plenty of reasons to rank him as high as 13th.
He’s a great hitter, man. Though he’s not hitting 40 homers like former teammates Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, he’s consistently around 30 with a respectable strikeout-to-walk rate.
Since debuting in 2017, Hoskins has posted a sub-122 wRC+ once while constantly hovering around 2.0 fWAR (was on pace to do so in 2020).
15. LaMonte Wade Jr. — San Francisco Giants
Wade Jr. popped big time in 2023, posting a career-high .373 OBP, .362 xwOBA and 2.1 fWAR in 135 games.
The only downside to his season was the Giants outright refused to play him against southpaws (81 plate appearances). In those 81 appearances, he posted a 101 wRC+ and .351 OBP. However, there just wasn’t enough of a sample size for me to consider him more than a platoon bat.
Besides, he’s historically shown to be incapable of hitting lefties.
14. Spencer Steer — Cincinnati Reds
I feel like the Reds have a massive logjam on the infield, and right now Steer is slated to play left for them.
However, he played 73 of his 156 games at first a season ago and thrived there. Overall, he posted 2.1 fWAR with 23 homers, 86 driven in and a 118 wRC+.
I like Steer at first more than Jeimer Candelario, especially considering the position’s lack of defensive value. The issue then becomes, who plays left?
The Reds are in a weird position right now that, if managed correctly, could be a good problem to have.
13. Brandon Belt — Free Agent
I’m amazed Belt still hasn’t found work ahead of the 2024 season.
Perhaps he isn’t a first baseman anymore, but it’s tough to tell considering he was teammates with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Toronto a season ago. In 2022, he logged over 500 innings with two defensive runs saved.
I’m not too sure who “needs” Belt, which feels odd to say about someone coming off of a 138 wRC+ in 2023.
Throwing a prediction out there, I’m going to say the Cleveland Guardians bring him in.
12. Vinnie Pasquantino — Kansas City Royals
A shoulder injury halted Pasquantino’s first full MLB season after 61 games.
While he wasn’t spectacular in his sample size on the surface, he posted a .350 xwOBA to go with remaining a tough guy to strike out. Among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, he ranked 12th in lowest strikeout rate.
A No. 12 ranking is ambitious, but I see Pasquantino taking a huge leap in 2024 — perhaps into All-Star status. Between him and Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are beginning to build a young core that might make noise in the coming years.
11. Wilmer Flores — San Francisco Giants
As a result of the Giants’ awkwardly constructed position player group, Flores is projected to come off the bench in 2023 despite having the offense to justify playing first base.
I’m keeping the 32-year-old ranked as a first baseman in hopes the Giants come to their senses and use him there more often than not. In 2023, he posted a 136 wRC+ (top 20 regardless of position with a minimum of 400 plate appearances).
He also posted six defensive runs saved in 415 innings.
They’ve got to figure something out because there’s no way Flores can sit a lion’s share of games in 2024.
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