Leandre: Top 30 first basemen entering 2024, 30-21
A position known for top-flight offense, the first base position got richer entering 2024.
Since 2004, there hasn’t been a season that first base finished with a positional wRC+ below 108.
That said, it was overall a pretty pedestrian season for first base as a whole, which is ironic considering two of the three NL MVP finalists were first basemen, as well as one of the three AL Rookie of the Year finalists.
At the top, it was as elite as ever; it even added two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper to the fray as a means to get his bat in the lineup as he recovered from elbow surgery.
There’s some intrigue in the back third of the top 30 at the position. Some well-decorated veterans looking for bounce-back seasons, but also youngins looking to break out in 2024.
With that, let’s start at No. 30, shall we?
30. Andrew Vaughn — Chicago White Sox
It feels like we’ve been waiting a while for Vaughn to burst onto the scene, but 2023 was his first year as an everyday first baseman in Chicago.
He was never expected to dethrone longtime White Sox first baseman and 2020 AL MVP José Abreu, but until last season he was a left fielder.
In Year 1 manning first, Vaughn posted OK numbers offensively: a 103 wRC+ with 21 homers and 80 driven in across 615 plate appearances. While raw data, especially counting stats, never tells the full story, everything about Vaughn’s quality of contact screamed “average” last year.
That is, except for his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, which both ranked above the 70th percentile.
He has the benefit of age still on his side, as he turns 26 in April, but he’s inching closer to his prime with a 103 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR for his career.
29. Jake Cronenworth — San Diego Padres
Cronenworth showed signs of decline in 2022 despite a 4.2 fWAR and 110 wRC+ in 158 games. However, the regression bug caught him even harder in 2023.
In a career-low 127 games (on pace for 146 games in 2020), he also posted career-lows in wRC+ (92), wOBA (.301), fWAR (1.0, including 2020 when he had 1.6) and ISO (.148).
So far, Cronenworth has looked good in Spring Training, albeit only 13 plate appearances. It would be nice to see him rebound, and the Padres could certainly stand to gain from that, but until he does he’s shown he’s an average defensive 1B with well below-average offense.
28. Connor Joe — Pittsburgh Pirates
Joe flashed potential in 2021 with the Colorado Rockies before a down year found him traded to the Pirates for the 2023 season.
In a career-high 133 games, he proved worth the investment. While his 107 wRC+ overall was below the league average at first, he posted a 127 wRC+ in his 172 plate appearances as a first baseman.
There’s no telling if there’s cause and effect, but he did enough to sneak into my top 30.
27. Josh Bell — Miami Marlins
The 2023 campaign was a tale of two seasons for the All-Star, who went from a below-average bat with Cleveland to a comfortably above-average one with Miami.
The reason he comes in so low, despite a career wRC+ of 114 in over 1,000 games, is his inconsistency.
Baseball is a game of streaks, and I’m not knocking him for being streaky, but over the past two seasons, he’s posted a 114 wRC+ as part of four organizations. With Washington, it was 144; with San Diego, it was 80; with Cleveland, it was 96; with Miami, it was 119.
Some ballparks aren’t great fits for certain players, but to rank higher at a position known for its offense, you can’t be so up-and-down.
26. José Abreu — Houston Astros
Abreu turned it on big time in the postseason last year, posting a 158 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances.
However, Year 1 in Houston was a struggle for the 2020 AL MVP. He picked it up in the second half but didn’t do nearly enough to be worth $19.5 million.
I don’t think it’s an age thing for Abreu. I genuinely think he’s going to bounce back this year and return to All-Star form. Do I think he will take home MVP votes next fall? No, but he’ll be better.
25. Carlos Santana — Minnesota Twins
The 37-year-old may not be the man he was in Cleveland, but he is still one of the toughest guys to strike out.
While the walks went down for him in 2023, especially with Milwaukee in the second half, he dipped into the fountain of youth to slug .459 with 11 homers in 52 games. That .459 SLG would’ve been his best full-season mark since 2019 with the Guardians.
Defensively, he was tremendous last season, logging 11 defensive runs saved and three outs above average. Though first base isn’t a heavily-regarded defensive position, being a good defender certainly doesn’t hurt.
24. Ty France — Seattle Mariners
I like France a lot, he’s just regressed the past three years in the power department.
His wRC+ went from 129 to 125 to 104 while his slugging percentage went from .445 to .436 to .366.
His walk rate remains hovering around 6.5% and he’s still a tough one to punch out. The problem comes from a lack of thump. Should he return to the 18-20-homer range, he has a chance to re-climb these rankings.
23. Ryan Noda — Oakland Athletics
For an Oakland Athletics team that took a ton of heat for being “talentless” in 2023, Noda certainly had a great rookie campaign.
In 128 games, the 27-year-old posted a 123 wRC+ and a .364 OBP. While he has a knack for striking out, he’s also a 98th-percentile walker who doesn’t chase and also hits the daylights out of the ball.
He also flashed some power, despite the .406 slugging percentage, hitting 16 home runs despite playing in a tough stadium.
22. Spencer Torkelson — Detroit Tigers
I’m prepared for 2024 to be the Year of Torkelson.
The former Arizona State Sun Devil-turned No. 1 pick eclipsed the 30-homer plateau in 2023. As a result, he became just the seventh Tiger to reach that mark since 2005; the first to do it since Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton did in 2016.
Like Noda, Torkelson also hits the daylights out of the ball despite not being as potent a walker. However, his .487 expected slugging percentage and .352 xwOBA were both in the top 22% of MLB in 2023.
He also saw a 32-point wRC+ and 2.4-fWAR improvement from 2022.
21. Anthony Rizzo — New York Yankees
Rizzo opened 2023 on fire, posting a 137 wRC+ through the end of April. Entering play on May 28, it was 147 with already 11 home runs.
On May 28, Rizzo collided with Padres superstar right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. While his cage was rattled, he only missed a few days before returning to action.
However, from June 2 onward, his wRC+ of 44 ranked tied for 390th out of 409 players with at least 100 plate appearances.
He then got placed on the IL for a concussion stemming from the aforementioned collision, ending his season on Aug. 2.
Rizzo is certainly a much better player than he was in his final two months of 2023, but aside from 10 Spring Training plate appearances, I don’t know to what extent that collision may still affect him.
He’s also 34 years old, so mix his age with the injury and there’s still a lot of unknown for the Yankees’ first baseman.
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