Leandre: Hypothetical ballot for 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame
Not one of the most-stacked classes in recent history, but who deserves induction as part of this year's Hall of Fame class?
Every year, the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) votes for up to 10 candidates for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York.
This year’s results and class will be announced at 6 pm EST on Jan. 21, 2025.
For those who love nostalgia, this is the kind of discourse you live for every winter, as it’s a time to reflect on some of the best players from their respective eras.
On the flip side, it’s also a time of intense hostility on social media, as everyone has their concrete opinion of who belongs in the Hall and often will gauge their opinion of your ballot based on how close it is to theirs.
Anyway, it’s become a yearly tradition of mine to write an article explaining my rationale for the players I deem worthy of baseball immortality. I do not have a vote, though hope to hold that honor one day, I am just a baseball sicko.
This won’t be a ranking based on most deserving to least, or vice versa. My ballot will be listed alphabetically as it would appear by column on the ballots posted on social media.
Last bit of housekeeping before getting into the ballot, it’s time for my explanation on the character clause. I look at each player in a vacuum, because I don’t know what the cut-off should be for what character flaws are bad enough to keep you out of the Hall.
Now, for players I deem borderline, I will enact the character clause to push them off the fence. That said, I’ve seldom faced that dilemma in the five years doing a hypothetical ballot.
Without further ado, let’s begin.
OF Bobby Abreu — Sixth
I was late to the Scott Rolen party but arrived bright-eyed and bushy-tailed to the Abreu party.
I understand the likelihood of his induction is probably slim barring a dramatic gain in votes this year, but he’s one of those cases I believe are more nuanced than credited.
For example, during his peak — roughly 1998 to 2005 — he ranked third among MLB outfielders in fWAR, trailing Barry Bonds (PEDs) and Andruw Jones (Hall of Fame hopeful). During that stretch, he slashed .305/.415/.519 with a 141 wRC+ in 5,447 plate appearances.
He’s also among seven hitters in league history with 400 stolen bases and 550 or more doubles — joining Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb, Craig Biggio, Honus Wagner, Paul Molitor and Bonds.
He’s not the sexiest case on the ballot, but his career compares pretty well to Todd Helton, who got in last year. I know one played corner outfield and one played first base, but offensively they were remarkably comparable talents.
OF Carlos Beltran — Third
I hope we can have an honest conversation about Beltran now that he’s in his third season of Hall of Fame eligibility.
If you want to hold his 2017 against him, let me remind you that he was one of the worst hitters in the sport that year. Entering the season, he was a .281 career hitter with 68.6 fWAR and over 1,000 extra-base hits (2,617 overall).
He’s one of the best switch-hitters of all time, boasting a top-15 wRC+ among switch-hitters with at least 7,500 plate appearances.
I know top-15 doesn’t sound like “Hall of Fame” but for those who talk about the best hitters of their era, he’s second in fWAR and homers among switch-hitters since 1990 (Chipper Jones), while also collecting three Gold Gloves and nine All-Star selections.
LHP Mark Buehrle — Fifth
This is the ultimate “Hear Me Out” candidate on the ballot.
Nothing jumps off the page when looking at Buehrle’s career, but there’s a reason he’s hung around the ballot for five years now. So, out of respect, I’ve re-examined his case every season.
Buehrle is a nuanced addition to my ballot, as he truly was one of the last of a dying breed of Uber-durable workhorses. The southpaw made 28 appearances in 2000, 25 out of the bullpen, amassing just 51.1 innings pitched. After that, he never had a season with fewer than 30 starts or 198.2 innings.
From 2001 to 2014, he averaged 33 starts, 217 innings pitched and a 3.81 ERA. Over that span, he made five All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, had a top-five finish in the American League Cy Young, won a World Series, led the league in WHIP once and threw two no-hitters — one being a perfect game.
The year following that stretch, he posted a career-worst (as a starter) 198.2 innings pitched, but led the league with four complete games.
Being a non-strikeout artist, he fell victim to the BABIP monster sometimes. However, aside from a 4.99 ERA in 2006, he never posted worse than a 4.28 in his MLB career.
Just the pinnacle of consistency, and by all accounts a wonderful teammate and person. He’s on the fence for me, but with a couple of votes dropped, he’s a player who gets the nudge into my ballot for 2025.
OF Andruw Jones — Eighth
I think Jones finally gets inducted this year, his eighth of eligibility.
He’s one of those heavily examined peak players because that’s all there is to analyze. However, luckily for him, he debuted so you that his 20s are all he needs to make his case for Cooperstown.
From 1996 to 2006, Jones slashed .267/.345/.505 with 342 home runs, a 116 wRC+ and 61.0 fWAR, the latter being third in baseball for that stretch.
He also won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves from 1998 to 2007 while posting five All-Star Game selections and an MVP runner-up.
His 30s weren’t horrible, but he turned into something of a journeyman, playing for five teams in his final six seasons. While he posted just 3.5 fWAR from 2009 to 2011, he managed a 114 wRC+ and 88 extra-base hits in 266 games.
He’s got the counting stats to pair with his elite defensive track record, it’s just a matter of how much he’s penalized for his 30s.
C Russell Martin — First
This one gave me some real trouble.
On one hand, there’s little volume on Martin’s side offensively with not enough tangible record of his defensive prowess to garner a vote.
On the other hand, from a defensive value standpoint, he’s rated as a top-three defensive catcher of all time, trailing Yadier Molina and Ivan Rodriguez.
On a rate basis, Martin also clears Molina in fWAR, wRC+ and other metrics. Even if you wanted to prorate his defensive value over 150 games, he beats Molina 26.7 to 25.2.
Molina sort of ball-hawked the Gold Glove Award from Martin, but the consensus is the Cardinals’ longtime backstop is a first-ballot induction. My rebuttal is why shouldn’t Martin also get the same love?
Don’t believe me? Here’s how they stack up against each other:
I know volume favors Molina and who’s to say Martin doesn’t heavily regress had he not retired after 2019? But we can only judge what we saw and the data accompanying it.
2B Dustin Pedroia — First
Like Jones, to a much lesser degree, Dustin Pedroia is a player you can only judge on his peak.
Statistically speaking, he was definitively a top-two or three second baseman during his prime — trailing Chase Utley and, maybe, Robinson Canó.
From 2007 to 2016, Pedroia slashed .303/.368/.447 with a 116 OPS+ and 50.6 rWAR while winning Rookie of the Year, MVP, two World Series titles, making four All-Star teams and winning four Gold Gloves.
Unfortunately, disaster struck early for him in 2017 when the infamous Manny Machado slide resulted in a knee injury that eventually ended the Red Sox legend’s career.
That said, he still averaged 5.1 rWAR/650 plate appearances from 2007 to 2019. Canó’s best 13-year stretch is from 2006 to 2018, and his fWAR/650 plate appearances was 5.2 — and he has the stain of a PED suspension, albeit at the tail-end of his MLB career.
So you’re looking at, from a peak standpoint, a top-two second baseman for his era when factoring in off-the-field matters.
Remove the two injury-riddled seasons that ended Pedroia’s career, and here’s how he stacks up with Canó and Utley:
Take out 2017, the year Pedroia battled injury as a result of the Machado slide, and here’s how those three stack up:
Do I think he ever gets in? No, I do not. Do I think he at least deserves another look in 2026? Absolutely.
LHP CC Sabathia — First
I don’t think there’s a lot of necessary defending of voting for CC Sabathia, considering he’s far and away the most deserving pitcher on the ballot.
I’m dating myself a little, as I was born in 2000, so I didn’t get to experience the excellence of peak Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, etc. But a decent consolation prize was witnessing the peak of Sabathia.
The southpaw was a two-time All-Star by his age-23 season but didn’t truly break out until he was 25 (2006). That season, he posted a 3.22 ERA, led the league in shutouts and complete games, and then followed that up with a Cy Young Award in 2007.
Those two seasons started a seven-year peak where Sabathia logged 1,591.2 innings, won 122 games and posted a 3.14 ERA. During that stretch, he also made four All-Star teams, won the World Series in 2009 in addition to his 2007 Cy Young, and went on one of the most ridiculous stretches of dominance in recent history in 2008 with the Milwaukee Brewers.
He made 17 starts in Milwaukee, went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA, and pitched seven (!!) complete games, three of which resulted in shutouts — both led the NL and he only spent a few months there.
Sabathia was a bulldog.
Unfortunately, injuries and struggles with alcoholism hampered his age-32-to-34 seasons, but he recovered and returned to an abbreviated version of his old self, posting a 3.76 ERA across 86 starts from his age-35-to-37 seasons.
Overall, he won 251 games and logged over 3,500 innings with 3,093 strikeouts and a 3.74 ERA.
There are 19 members of the 3,000-strikeout club; fourteen are Hall of Famers. The only exceptions are Roger Clemens (PEDs), Curt Schilling (character), Sabathia (first-year eligible), Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander (active).
Even growing up as a Red Sox fan, I couldn’t help but respect the work ethic, inspirational redemption arc and sheer productivity of Sabathia, even though he spent 11 seasons with the Yankees.
Congrats on what should be a borderline unanimous induction, Mr. Sabathia.
OF Ichiro Suzuki — First
There isn’t a greater slam dunk on this ballot than Ichiro.
The longtime Seattle Mariners great came over from Japan at 27 years old and still managed and 18-year-plus-two-game career in MLB.
During such career, he mustered over 3,000 hits, including setting the professional baseball record for most hits — factoring in his NPB numbers.
He also hit .311, which is 17th all-time among the 86 hitters in league history with 10,000 plate appearances stateside.
He also accumulated 60.0 rWAR, 54.8 coming during a 10-year peak which saw him win Rookie of the Year, MVP, play for a team that set the all-time wins record, make 10 All-Star teams, win 10 Gold Gloves, two batting titles and an All-Star Game MVP.
He’s got the accolades, and the counting stats, to make him a slam-dunk first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and it should be unanimous.
2B Chase Utley — Second
Utley maintained productivity throughout his career, save for 2015 and 2018, but his peak is one of the most underrated in recent memory.
He was just good-to-great at literally everything from 2003 to 2014, a span where he slashed .285/.370/.488 with the third-most fWAR (59.5) among position players, trailing Miguel Cabrera (60.9) and Albert Pujols (75.2).
During that span he had a 126 wRC+, 68.8 baserunning runs (BsR) and 137 defensive runs saved, the latter two being fifth and fourth in MLB respectively for that era.
His 61.5 fWAR is 14th among second basemen all-time, but it’s higher than Hall-of-Famers Ryne Sandberg and Bobby Doerr. In fact, his career stacks up beautifully with Sandberg’s.
LHP Billy Wagner — Tenth
He was so close to making it to the Hall last year, but came a small handful of votes shy (73.8% — needed 75%).
Wagner is one of the most dominant closers of all-time, especially when considering he’s left-handed. Among relievers with at least 500 innings, he’s second to Mariano Rivera in ERA, fifth in strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk rate, in addition to ranking eighth all-time in saves with 422.
I’ve seen some love thrown out for former Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez, and I can get behind that, but not until Wagner has his moment of glory.
If he’s not inducted this year, it’ll be hard to garner my support for another reliever. Wagner was filthy, a level of dominance rivaled only to Rivera from a longevity standpoint.
Dropped Votes: Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez
Now that Bonds and Clemens are off the ballot, there’s less juice for me to vote for PED users, especially ones that have suspensions staining their legacies.
While the use of PEDs was never legal, it was very clearly allowed in the late-1990s and early-2000s, and I disagreed with the idea of disallowing players like Bonds and Clemens for things the league turned a blind eye to.
However, even if you want to justify it saying Ramirez and Rodriguez were “grandfathered in” as Steroid Era players, they knew there was a risk of suspension should they test positive, yet they continued to use and, in Ramirez’s case twice, were subsequently suspended.
If you’re not going to induct players with no PEDs suspension, you can’t induct players with suspensions.
