Predicting destinations of top 25 free agents in 2025 MLB offseason
With a scarce number of free agents having made plans for their 2025 season and beyond, a lot of the game's top talent remains unsigned.
Early stages of MLB free agency is always exciting. Even though the league operates at a much slower pace than the NFL or NBA, the brief “delusion” period of MLB free agency allows fans of every team to state their case for why certain star players will don their uniform the following season.
Initially, the hype around this offseason seemed to center on Juan Soto with not much helium below him. Fast forward from August, guys like Japanese Phenom Roki Sasaki, 2023 Cy Young Blake Snell and redemption stories Luis Severino and Sean Manaea enter the fray as well — and that just covers starting pitchers.
Speculating where everybody will end up is fun, but there’s a lot of obstacles that impede team’s from signing guys just because they want them: taxes, organizational health, fans, how other teams view them, qualifying offers, etc. are only the tip of the iceberg.
Ed Hand of Pod by the River and To The Show We Go puts a ton of time and effort into doing an awesome free agency tracker. You can read his full tracker here at Beyond the Monster.
A lot will go into predicting where Ed’s top 25 (remaining) free agents end up: ownership, market, desperation, contention windows, perceived willingness to forfeit a draft pick for a player with a qualifying offer, etc.
Let’s do this, shall we?
25. OF/DH Joc Pederson
2024 Numbers: .275/.393/.515, 151 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR, 23 homers in 449 PAs
2024 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Fits: Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees
Pederson’s success year-to-year remains a bit scattered, but he’s coming off his best offensive season as a big-leaguer.
His hard hit rate dipped a smidge in 2024, but his launch angle and barrel rate increased in his first year in the desert.
Given his power-hitting potency and corner outfield position, he makes a ton of sense for the Yankees and, should they miss out on retaining Juan Soto, he’s a very good budget baller by comparison.
Verdict: Kansas City Royals on a two-year, $39 million contract
The Royals’ young core got a taste of postseason ball in 2024 despite position player acquisitions of Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier and Paul DeJong along the journey. Adding Pederson shows that Kansas City is serious about maintaining that level of excellence in the immediate future.
24. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
2024 Numbers: 4.05 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.5 fWAR and a 28.0% strikeout rate in 175.2 IP
2024 Teams: Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
Fits: Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers
The past two seasons cemented Kikuchi as a bona fide No. 3 in a good rotation, after his first four left a lot to be desired.
The strikeouts went through the roof, especially in his 10 starts with the Astros, while his walks dipped even more from what was his previous career-high in 2023. While he possesses something of a prone-ness to home runs allowed, he’s become proficient at limiting baserunners.
Verdict: Texas Rangers on a three-year, $42 million contract ($20 mil club option for 2028)
The Rangers are looking to cut payroll for 2025, so signing Kikuchi may look counterproductive at face value. However, shedding RHPs Nathan Eovaldi (free agent) and Jon Gray (trade) effectively saves the Rangers $30-plus million.
Signing Kikuchi at $14 million per year still nets them $22 million saved.
A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Kikuchi may not dazzle, but there’s potential — especially if Jack Leiter and/or Kumar Rocker take a leap.
23. RHP Luis Severino
2024 Numbers: 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 2.1 fWAR and a 21.2% strikeout rate in 182 IP
2024 Team: New York Mets (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants
More important than having a good season, Severino was healthy in 2024.
He likely won’t return to his 2017 or 2018 form given the laundry list of health issues and being 31 in February, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good addition for a team in need of stable starting pitching.
He could stand to receive a boost in strikeout production, which he saw with 10 K/9 after the All-Star Break this past season. That did, however, come with home run troubles (1.37 per-nine), but you can live with homers so long as they’re solo shots.
Verdict: Baltimore Orioles on a three-year, $57 million contract
The Orioles seem poised to land a big fish starting pitcher this winter. That said, given the injuries of 2024, it couldn’t hurt to stabilize the rotation beyond adding/retaining a No. 1.
Severino’s homer troubles somewhat get masked by playing in front of the deepest left-field wall in the sport while he takes his big-market, AL East institutional knowledge to a team that’s failed to deliver a win in consecutive postseasons.
The Orioles also have one of, if not the best farm in the league and can survive forfeiting a draft pick in 2025.
22. OF/DH Tyler O’Neill
2024 Numbers: .241/.336/.511, 131 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR and 31 homers in 473 PA
2024 Team: Boston Red Sox
Fits: Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners
The injury issues will always travel with O’Neill, who played in over 100 games for just the second time in his seven-year career. However, gravitating to a more DH-heavy role would certainly mitigate a lot of the risk in signing him.
He strikes out a lot, but can carry your offense for weeks at a time when he’s rolling.
To me, it feels like the best fits are Boston and the Dodgers, the latter obviously can only fetch him time at designated hitter when Shohei Ohtani pitches, and obviously assuming they don’t re-sign Teoscar Hernandez.
Verdict: Boston Red Sox on a three-year, $50.25 million contract
No matter how busy Boston is improving its roster this year, they need more right-handed power than shortstop Trevor Story and center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
It’s unclear how likely trading current designated hitter Masataka Yoshida is, but if the Red Sox were open to Yoshida as the primary left-fielder at home and O’Neill on the road, with the other at DH, this pairing could work.
21. RHP Kirby Yates
2024 Numbers: 1.17 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 33 saves and a 35.9% strikeout rate in 61.2 IP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
Fits: New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
What can’t be said of Yates’ 2024 campaign? The dude, at 37 years old, not only returned to All-Star status, but was also a legitimate Reliever of the Year candidate.
He’s up there in age with several years spanning his two most recent elite seasons, but that shouldn’t impede teams from spending on him. However, I feel like this has smaller market looking to break through written all over it.
Verdict: Pittsburgh Pirates on a one-year, $9 million contract ($11.5 mil club option for 2026)
The Pirates ranked 27th in bullpen ERA last season despite Dennis Santana, Colin Holderman and Aroldis Chapman giving well above-average production.
David Bednar, their All-Star closer in 2022 and 2023, hit a massive wall, spiking his ERA to 5.77 in 2024. While they could bank on that being a one-off, they are still set to lose Chapman this winter. Adding Yates gives them another elite-level reliever to either bridge to Bednar or slam the door on ballgames.
20. LHP Tanner Scott
2024 Numbers: 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 22 saves and a 28.6% strikeout rate in 72 IP
2024 Teams: Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres
Fits: San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
Scott feels like a rich man’s Brewers Josh Hader. He’s a Swiss Army Knife that can give you multiple innings against a pocket of lefties, come into a jam and slam the door in high leverage or be your closer.
While relievers are volatile, relievers like Scott are a dime a dozen. This is the kind of guy you pay up the wazoo for.
He averaged 97.2 mph on his fastball last year with his best ERA across a full season of his career. While he’s 30, there should be little discomfort in giving him a four-year deal.
Verdict: Boston Red Sox on a four-year, $64 million contract
The Red Sox need to replace the closing stability of the much-maligned Kenley Jansen who, for better or worse, seems destined to leave Boston after two seasons.
They also need to replace the stability of setup man Chris Martin, who I wouldn’t close the book on returning to Boston, but feel he’s likely headed elsewhere as well.
Scott is the best of both worlds — Uber-dependable in the ninth inning but you feel comfortable using him in any role imaginable. With Liam Hendriks returning from injury, Justin Slaten entering Year 2 and, potentially the return of Garrett Whitlock to the bullpen, adding Scott gives Boston four bona fide high leverage relievers, including their first lefty since Andrew Miller in 2014.
19. LF/CIF Jurickson Profar
2024 Numbers: .280/.380/.459, 139 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR and 24 homers in 668 PAs
2024 Team: San Diego Padres
Fits: San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals
Putting several fits here more to show the kind of value a versatile defender with a somewhat high floor offensively has.
That said, it feels taboo to include any team besides the Padres.
He’s a fit there through and through: his personality meshes well in that clubhouse, he has a history there and his most productive seasons happen there as well.
Even year Jurickson Profar needs to be studied, but if odd year Profar can catch up, he’s going to age beautifully.
Verdict: San Diego Padres on a two-year, $27 million contract ($14 mil club option for 2027)
He fits right into San Diego’s contention window and affords them a stable option in left field with the ability to play first base and maybe even a little third base should they need him to.
There really isn’t much else to say.
18. RHP Nick Martinez
2024 Numbers: 3.10 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 3.5 fWAR and a 20.4% strikeout rate in 142.1 IP
2024 Team: Cincinnati Reds (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies
I audibly gasped when I read Martinez got the QO from Cincinnati. However, after seeing his numbers, it became a lot clearer to me.
He’s also a Swiss Army Knife, especially as a swingman, which is becoming a more important role by the season. Last year, he was awesome, improving on what was an impressive 2023 campaign with the Padres.
That said, I don’t see him as a pitcher teams would forfeit a draft pick for, hence the only fits being a team who turns everyone into a good player (Rays) and a team that is solely focused on winning a title (Phillies) in addition to the team who gave him the qualifying offer.
Verdict: He accepts the qualifying offer
I just don’t see a team coming close to the $21.05 million he’d earn in 2025 with the Reds, perhaps even over two years.
Yes, he’s posted consecutive very good seasons, but he also saw a dramatic decrease in ground ball rate and swinging strike rate.
17. LHP Sean Manaea
2024 Numbers: 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 2.8 fWAR and a 24.9% strikeout rate in 181.2 IP
2024 Team: New York Mets (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays
Where Martinez isn’t the type of pitcher I’d deem worthy of forfeiting a draft pick on, Manaea definitely is.
For starters, he’s a starter definitively, so that in turn makes him more valuable to an acquiring organization.
Secondly, his pace after the mechanical shift he made during the summer turned him into a completely different pitcher. He sustained success through his first start of the NLCS before getting shelled in Game 6 against the Dodgers.
He strikes me as the steal of the offseason waiting to happen.
Verdict: Tampa Bay Rays on a four-year, $66 million contract
The Rays maximize their talent like nobody’s business, Manaea strikes me as the exact guy they’re looking for.
Besides, they wouldn’t need him to be their ace, as they already have Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Taj Bradley. While they have enough ceiling rounding out the rotation with Shane Baz and Ryan Pepiot, adding a veteran who gobbles up innings would be massive for one of the game’s most heavily analytical organizations.
16. SS/2B Ha-Seong Kim
2024 Numbers: .233/.330/.370, 101 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR and 11 homers in 470 PAs
2024 Team: San Diego Padres
Fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves
Kim is one of my favorite players and, had it not been for a shoulder injury ending his season, might’ve put up his third consecutive three-win season for the Padres.
Unfortunately, he regressed offensively and got hurt.
He likely is on the mend with a pillow contract for 2025, making him a high-priority target to a contending team, as his defensive value transcends what is a fairly average bat.
Verdict: Los Angeles Dodgers on a one-year, $8 million contract
The Dodgers won the World Series in 2024 despite fairly limited production out of shortstop when Mookie Betts got hurt and subsequently switched back to right field.
It appears Betts is returning to the infield in 2025, either at second or short. While the Dodgers still have postseason hero Tommy Edman, veteran stalwart Miguel Rojas and youngster Gavin Lux under contract, having Kim as either depth or in utility gives the Dodgers so much stability up the middle.
Plus, he gets the added bonus of being on the odds-on favorite to win the title in 2025.
15. 1B Christian Walker
2024 Numbers: .251/.335/.468, 119 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR and 26 homers in 552 PAs
2024 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox
Walker very much should be one of the hottest commodities this winter, as he is the perfect balance of stable offense with power, plus elite defense, albeit at a low defensive value position.
His counting numbers took a hit in 2024 as he dealt with injuries, but haw spikes in his hard hit rate and barrel rate at the cost of a slight worsening in bat-to-ball.
He’s going to make a team very happy this winter, it’s just a matter of who.
Verdict: Detroit Tigers on a five-year, $120 million contract
I don’t love this fit from a home run standpoint, but the Tigers need more experience and an upgrade at first base. I envision them being somewhat involved in the market for other veteran first basemen like Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso but Walker, in my opinion, is and should be their guy this winter.
Spencer Torkelson took a nosedive after a 30-homer campaign in 2023 and I think they’re closer to giving up on him than they are confident he will be a consistently productive bat. I could see them trading him for pitching.
14. RHP Shane Bieber
2024 Numbers: 12 IP, 0 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 20 K across two starts
2024 Team: Cleveland Guardians
Fits: Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres
Hard to gauge Bieber as a long-term option based on two starts, no matter how nasty those starts were.
Also, to give more context, those two starts were against the Oakland Athletics, who didn’t turn it on offensively until June, and the Seattle Mariners, who struggled to score runs all year.
Similar to Kim, I imagine Bieber takes a one-year deal to rebuild his value. While he’ll be 30 in May, I don’t think the age will deter people from paying him 2026 if he has a good year.
Verdict: Cleveland Guardians on a one-year, $14.5 million deal
The Guardians finished three wins shy of a World Series berth in 2024 and who knows how differently that ALCS goes if they could’ve gotten some length out of an additional starter.
I think Cleveland gives him a slight bump in pay, treating it like another year of arbitration for the right-hander and seeing what happens.
13. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
2024 Numbers: 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 2.7 fWAR and a 23.9% strikeout rate in 170.2 IP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
Fits: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
While Eovaldi might not be as dominant as some of the other available pitchers this winter, he’s one of the most dependable postseason performers in league history. For a team in need of another arm to get them over the hump in October, he might be at the top of their big board for this offseason.
I think this is a guy who’d also serve as a tremendous veteran leader to have on a young team but highly doubt he forfeits another shot at a ring simply because he already has two.
Verdict: Houston Astros on a two-year, $42 million contract
To be truthful, if it’s not a new deal with the Rangers, I anticipate the Astros being the most serious player for Eovaldi’s services.
It would also serve as an even greater homecoming for the All-Star and come with lower expectations thanks to joining a rotation with Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier.
12. 2B Gleyber Torres
2024 Numbers: .257/.330/.378, 104 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR and 15 homers in 665 PAs
2024 Team: New York Yankees
Fits: New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels
Torres’ season at face value leaves a lot to be desired, but once he became the full-time leadoff hitter on Aug. 16, he went on a tear to finish the season.
Over his final 184 plate appearances, he slashed .313/.386/.454 with a 142 wRC+ and 13 extra-base hits.
He’s not a very good defender, but the bat plays assuming he’s more like second-half Torres. I expect him to take a one- or two-year deal to rebuild his value and reset his market in the future.
Verdict: Seattle Mariners on a one-year, $16 million contract ($16 mil mutual option for 2026)
The Mariners had the best run prevention unit in the sport last year but missed the playoffs by one game thanks to being a bottom-10 run-scoring offense.
Torres might not improve their chances at hitting homers, as seems often the case with righties who play in Seattle save for Nelson Cruz, but he definitely serves as a nice upgrade from Jorge Polanco.
11. 1B Pete Alonso
2024 Numbers: .240/.329/.459, 122 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR and 34 homers in 695 PAs
2024 Team: New York Mets
Fits: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers
It was not a good contract year for Alonso, who saw a career-low .219 ISO in a career-high 695 plate appearances in 2024.
He’s still a proverbial lock for 30 homers, but I don’t view him in the same light I once did.
Teams started daring him to turn on inside fastballs and only eight of his 34 homers came on the inner third of the plate. Moreover, he saw a dramatic dip in his expected slugging percentages on inner-third pitches from 2023.
Verdict: New York Mets on a five-year, $130 million contract
Nobody values Alonso like the Mets do. He’s a fan favorite and had some dramatic postseason moments along their Cinderella run to the NLCS.
I just can’t envision the Mets not sweetening the deal to keep him, even if it is an overpay.
10. OF Anthony Santander
2024 Numbers: .235/.308/.506, 129 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR and 44 homers in 665 PAs
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
I’ve seen some point to the low OBP for Santander as a reason to be scared off a little. However, I think that’s misguided.
Personally, I look more at the gap between batting average and OBP as more of a tell-tale sign. In Santander’s case, he’s got a 73-point gap and his low OBP can just as easily be attributed to a career-worst .225 batting average on balls in play.
He hit 44 homers, stayed the course with his walk rate and cut his strikeout rate from 2023. There’s no need to overthink this, he can and should get a fairly substantial offer this winter.
Verdict: New York Yankees on a five-year, $110 million contract
I think the Yankees need to start preparing for life after some of their stars. While that doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t keep Soto, it shouldn’t be ignored that Anthony Rizzo had his option declined and Giancarlo Stanton is 35 years old.
While they do have Jasson Dominguez hopefully poised to be an MLB contributor in 2025, there’s still a need for at least one outfielder, a first baseman and somebody who could potentially DH after Stanton, who only had three remaining guaranteed years, leaves.
Santander doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience at 1B, but played 72 innings there in 2023 for Baltimore. It could serve as a good option for New York whether Soto stays or not.
9. OF Teoscar Hernandez
2024 Numbers: .272/.339/.501, 134 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR and 33 homers in 652 PAs
2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants
Hernandez bet on himself in the ultimate fashion this past season and it paid off with gusto.
He signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers, won a World Series, won the Home Run Derby, made the All-Star team and secured himself at least $21.05 million in 2025 thanks to receiving the qualifying offer.
Barring a team inexplicably giving him five or six years, he will likely exceed the QO in average annual value. It’s just a matter of where he goes.
Verdict: Los Angeles Dodgers on a four-year, $90 million contract
He got a taste of winning and seemed to really embrace the bright lights of Hollywood. I just don’t see any team giving him an enticing enough offer or situation to pry him away from the Dodgers.
8. RHP Jack Flaherty
2024 Numbers: 3.17 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.2 fWAR and a 29.9% strikeout rate in 162 IP
2024 Teams: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers
Fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees
Flaherty is somewhat of a major question mark this winter since his 2024 was the first good and full year of his career since 2019.
That, and he comes with concerns about his back.
The question surrounding Flaherty for me is just how real was 2024? I think he’s definitely a legitimate top of the rotation arm, but is he a No. 1 or a No. 2?
He was just the ace of a World Series winner, but that team was considered the favorites at the deadline. Plus, they’re returning Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 2025.
I think he’s a No. 2, which probably takes him out of the running for Boston.
Verdict: New York Mets on a three-year, $66 million contract
Having Kodai Senga at the top of the rotation, it feels like the Mets can pay a bit more to solidify their No. 2 starter spot by getting Flaherty.
This deal feels a little light, but I just don’t see a team going beyond three years for the right-hander for the concerns mentioned earlier.
7. LHP Blake Snell
2024 Numbers: 3.12 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 3.1 fWAR and a 34.7% strikeout rate in 104 IP
2024 Team: San Francisco Giants
Fits: San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels
Snell is one of the biggest wild cards going into the winter. Not because of his talent, but because the shelf life of how people view his talent.
He’s arguably the most talented pitcher on the market, and certainly is among MLB free agents, but the difference in giving him four years versus six or seven is perceived as monumental for risk.
Verdict: Los Angeles Angels on a five-year, $175 million contract (opt-out after three, team option for sixth year at $37 million for 2030)
The Angels lineup is actually pretty decent, but the rotation is scary in a bad way.
Sure, Reid Detmers might take a leap, and Jose Soriano seems like a potential mid-rotation arm, but Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks behind them is a little uninspiring.
Snell gives them a legitimate ace, and a viable path to a postseason spot. I know they have a ton of money on the books going to Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, but at some point they have to stop toeing the line of mediocrity and take a leap.
6. SS Willy Adames
2024 Numbers: .251/.331/.462, 119 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR and 32 homers in 688 PAs
2024 Team: Milwaukee Brewers (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets
Adames had the perfect storm of successes in 2024. He hit for power, was markedly improved in average, hit the ball on the screws and played all but one game.
Unfortunately, his defense sputtered a ton, down to -16 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average.
He’s a very good athlete, so it seems reasonable to call his defensive struggles a one-off, but if you’re viewing it with caution, how willing are you to pay him like a shortstop if you may be moving him to second base?
Verdict: San Francisco Giants on a six-year, $144 million contract
The $24 million average annual salary probably feels low for Adames, but I just don’t see his market being as robust for him as a shortstop unless he stays in Milwaukee.
The Giants are really the only team that will use him at short but given the market, can pay him like a high-end second baseman — similar to the Red Sox signing of Trevor Story in 2022.
5. 3B Alex Bregman
2024 Numbers: .260/.315/.453, 118 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR and 26 homers in 634 PAs
2024 Team: Houston Astros (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers
The report that Bregman is willing to move off third base creates a bit more of a market for his services moving forward.
However, I don’t envision him ending up with a team that plans to use him as a second baseman.
That really leaves three teams: Houston, Detroit and Seattle.
Bregman had a down year in 2024, but was more up to snuff after April ended. He also had offseason surgery to repair bone chips in his elbow. So, maybe what ended up being a sub-standard four-win season was a one-off and he can return to he pre-2024 form.
Verdict: Houston Astros on a five-year, $130 million contract
Similar to Alonso, I don’t think there’s a team out there better equipped and more appreciative of Bregman’s skillset than the team he already plays for.
He’s a lifer, in my eyes, to the Astros. While $26 million average annual value might not be eye-popping, I think it’s enough to keep him in Houston.
4. RHP Corbin Burnes
2024 Numbers: 2.92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.7 fWAR and a 23.1% strikeout rate in 194.1 IP
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals
There’s basically two schools of thought when it comes to Corbin Burnes: There’s plenty of data to suggest he’s teetering on falling off as an elite starter and he just had a great year so there’s no reason to panic.
I’m in the middle. I think Burnes might have the shortest remaining shelf life of the available top starters but he is still a top available starter.
But to give some credence to the Burnes debate, David Price was second in AL Cy Young in 2015, signed a lucrative deal in Boston and just wasn’t the same pitcher. Still good, for sure. Just well below the value of his contract.
That said, he’s still super solid and even added a sweeper in 2024, which saw some success.
Verdict: Baltimore Orioles on a seven-year, $210 million contract
New ownership, new order of business in Baltimore, who gave up a very good amount to fetch Burnes last winter. I just don’t see them being willing to let him go unless the total salary approaches $250 million.
He was a beast for Baltimore and, based on these predictions, a rotation of Burnes, Zach Eflin, Severino, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez — with Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer and John Means potentially as depth at some point — rivals for the top rotation in the American League.
3. LHP Max Fried
2024 Numbers: 3.25 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.4 fWAR and a 23.2% strikeout rate in 174.1 IP
2024 Team: Atlanta Braves (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
Perhaps calling it a bad Max Fried year is laying it on a little thick because he had worse numbers but substantially more volume, but Fried’s down year production-wise would be some guys’ best season of their career.
He doesn’t blow people away with strikeouts, but keeps the ball on the ground and can certainly buckle down when he has to. In 2024, he had a .368 OPS against and a strikeout rate above 28% with runners in scoring position and two outs.
Verdict: Boston Red Sox on a six-year, $174 million contract (opt-out after four, club option for $31 million in 2031)
He’s everything the Boston Red Sox need in an acquired starter. Postseason experience, ability to keep the ball on the ground, left-handedness and a pedigree as one of the game’s best pitchers.
Boston should be foaming at the mouth to land him this winter, and I believe they do.
2. RHP Roki Sasaki
2024 Numbers: 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and a 21.6% K-BB rate in 111 IP
2024 Team: Chiba Lotte Marines of the NPB
Fits: Every Team in MLB
If you have a penny remaining in international free agency pool money, offer it to Roki Sasaki.
The 23-year-old flamethrower is one of the most dominant pitchers to come out of Japan ever, and won’t cost the same deal as Yamamoto did a year ago.
There isn’t a team in baseball that should be scoffing at the idea of signing him.
Verdict: Los Angeles Dodgers
I don’t see why he’d forfeit hundreds of millions of dollars if not for wanting to play with Ohtani, Yamamoto, Betts and Freddie Freeman on their title defense in Los Angeles.
It would be the shock of the offseason for me.
1. OF Juan Soto
2024 Numbers: .288/.419/.569, 180 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR and 41 homers in 713 PAs
2024 Team: New York Yankees (Qualifying Offer)
Fits: New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
I don’t care who is in your outfield, you make room for Juan Soto.
He’s the best hitter on the market and one of the three- or four-best in the world.
I don’t care if the total salary ends up over $600 million, every team in baseball should be eyeballing him — obviously some ownership groups don’t want to spend like that, but doesn’t mean they shouldn’t.
Verdict: New York Mets on a 14-year, $675 million contract
For those keeping score at home, that’s $48.2 million a year.
I know some people think that’s a ludicrous amount for an athlete to make, but that’s what the market dictates a guy like Soto should make in free agency. After all, he’s 26 years old; he can still get better in the front half of that contract.
Steve Cohen is a madman, and I think he will further prove that to be fact handing this deal out to the young outfielder.
