Kyle Harrison's Run Value Added on his Fastball at the Big League level this year was in the (approximately) 80th percentile, which makes it an above average pitch. His average velocity on that Fastball was 95.1 miles per hour, which also makes it above average. Left Handers with this fastball profile don't grow on trees, so Harrison could turn out to be a mid-line Starting Pitcher if the Red Sox pitching lab can help him to acquire two MLB average breaking pitches. That's been his problem. His breaking ball and changeup have been below average to downright poor at the MLB level. That's the key to this deal. Acquiring a mid-line Starting Pitcher can make this deal look much, much better if the Red Sox Pitching Development can live up to their reputation. They were able to help Quinn Priester add to his one above average pitch, and if they can do so with Harrison, this deal looks much, much better.
Hicks is someone I was preening for when the Cardinals were looking to trade him near the trading deadline in 2023. If he can find the plate, having a second high-leverage pitcher throwing 100+ miles per hour to pair with Aroldis Chapman makes the Red Sox bullpen much, much better almost immediately. We all remember the 2014-2015 Royals club who had four closers in their bullpen and turned that into two World Series appearances and one World Series championship. An effective Hicks lengthens the Red Sox bullpen and moves Weissert down the list. Champan, Hicks, Slaten, Whitlock, Wilson, and Weissert makes this bullpen quite formidable.
Tibbs was not in the top tier of college bats available in the '24 draft, but after Bazzana, Condon, Kurtz, Caglianone, Wetherholt, & Christian Moore, Tibbs was in that 2nd tier with Seaver King, Braden Montgomery & Cam Smith. I believe Breslow might see Tibbs as an opportunity to begin the process of phasing out Tristan Casas if he can develop quickly between now and the beginning of Casas' rehab assignment in June of next season. In reality, Casas probably won't be ready to face Major League pitching until around July first of next year. I understand the Red Sox interest in his bat.
Bello is a flyer with interesting pitch characteristics to his pitches. I understand he may not be tall or left handed, but he has control at a young age which is hard to find and his velocity can continue to tick up with additional development. He might end up in the bullpen in the coming years, but he's a nice flyer/project to have in the system.
Overall, I agree with your assessment. The true grade of this trade relies upon how the Red Sox choose to spend the money that came off the books by deleting Devers' contract from the books, but don't be surprised if three pieces of this trade all end up beings contributors within the next two years.
I'm not as down on the return from this trade as most.
Kyle Harrison's Run Value Added on his Fastball at the Big League level this year was in the (approximately) 80th percentile, which makes it an above average pitch. His average velocity on that Fastball was 95.1 miles per hour, which also makes it above average. Left Handers with this fastball profile don't grow on trees, so Harrison could turn out to be a mid-line Starting Pitcher if the Red Sox pitching lab can help him to acquire two MLB average breaking pitches. That's been his problem. His breaking ball and changeup have been below average to downright poor at the MLB level. That's the key to this deal. Acquiring a mid-line Starting Pitcher can make this deal look much, much better if the Red Sox Pitching Development can live up to their reputation. They were able to help Quinn Priester add to his one above average pitch, and if they can do so with Harrison, this deal looks much, much better.
Hicks is someone I was preening for when the Cardinals were looking to trade him near the trading deadline in 2023. If he can find the plate, having a second high-leverage pitcher throwing 100+ miles per hour to pair with Aroldis Chapman makes the Red Sox bullpen much, much better almost immediately. We all remember the 2014-2015 Royals club who had four closers in their bullpen and turned that into two World Series appearances and one World Series championship. An effective Hicks lengthens the Red Sox bullpen and moves Weissert down the list. Champan, Hicks, Slaten, Whitlock, Wilson, and Weissert makes this bullpen quite formidable.
Tibbs was not in the top tier of college bats available in the '24 draft, but after Bazzana, Condon, Kurtz, Caglianone, Wetherholt, & Christian Moore, Tibbs was in that 2nd tier with Seaver King, Braden Montgomery & Cam Smith. I believe Breslow might see Tibbs as an opportunity to begin the process of phasing out Tristan Casas if he can develop quickly between now and the beginning of Casas' rehab assignment in June of next season. In reality, Casas probably won't be ready to face Major League pitching until around July first of next year. I understand the Red Sox interest in his bat.
Bello is a flyer with interesting pitch characteristics to his pitches. I understand he may not be tall or left handed, but he has control at a young age which is hard to find and his velocity can continue to tick up with additional development. He might end up in the bullpen in the coming years, but he's a nice flyer/project to have in the system.
Overall, I agree with your assessment. The true grade of this trade relies upon how the Red Sox choose to spend the money that came off the books by deleting Devers' contract from the books, but don't be surprised if three pieces of this trade all end up beings contributors within the next two years.
I'm not as down on the return from this trade as most.