Chris Sale: Back on Cooperstown watch?
Despite only eclipsing 100 innings for the first time since 2019, did the Boston Red Sox southpaw do enough to put himself back on a Hall of Fame path?
After five innings of one-run ball in his season finale on Thursday, left-hander Chris Sale accomplished several feats for the first time in years.
For starters, he reached 100 innings for the first time since 2019, — same goes for the 125-strikeout plateau. He also made it to the finish line for the first time since 2018.
Overall, the southpaw pitched to a so-so 4.30 ERA, but the underlying data suggested he was much better (3.80 FIP, 3.51 SIERA). While not the vintage Sale, nor even a frontline starter-caliber season, there’s much to be optimistic about as the 34-year-old enters his final offseason under contract in Boston.
Above all else, the slender left-hander has re-entered the conversation of having a Hall of Fame career.
Across 13 seasons, Sale has a 3.10 ERA and 2.97 FIP to go along with 2,189 strikeouts and an MLB-record 11.1 K/9. He also has seven All-Star Game selections, a World Series ring and five top-five finishes for Cy Young.
By the end of 2019, Sale had a 3.09 ERA and 2.90 FIP for his career with all the same accolades.
Unfortunately for him, he’d pitched only 48.1 regular-season innings since that point entering the 2023 campaign.
Even though this year wasn’t spectacular by any means, and even featured a lengthy stint on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, the campaign Sale had should re-open the dialogue that he’s on a Hall of Fame track.
But how?
First off, he’s closing in on 50 career wins above replacement (47.6 on FanGraphs, 47.2 on Baseball Reference). While 50 WAR is hardly an automatic-induction, that alone would give him more than Hall of Fame starters like Old Hoss Radbourn (on FanGraphs) and Dizzy Dean (on both).
Next, he’s less than 700 strikeouts from passing Cy Young for sole possession of 25th on the all-time list. Save for active players, there are only four pitchers in the top 25 for strikeouts not in the Hall of Fame.
Roger Clemens (PEDs)
Curt Schilling (character clause)
CC Sabathia (not yet eligible)
Mickey Lolich (considered a HOF snub)
Basically, get to the top 25 without cheating or having character issues and you’re a proverbial lock. If Sale matches his strikeout total from this year every season for the next, conservatively, five years, he will finish with 2,814 — 24th all time.
The question that remains is whether or not Sale pitches that long … and healthily. He’s still incredibly talented when healthy, but that’s the problem — when healthy.
Fact of the matter is Sale hasn’t made 30-plus starts since 2017 — his first year in Boston.
He’d have to have two, maybe even three years of maintaining good production and health to have a real shot at breaking into the top-25 for strikeouts. Unfortunately for him, that’s just not been in the cards for the better part of half a decade.
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