Breaking down Red Sox signing LHP Aroldis Chapman
The Boston Red Sox signed former bullpen ace Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million contract Tuesday, pending physical.
To say the Boston Red Sox landing left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman came from the blind side would be an understatement.
And yet, the 36-year-old became their first “big fish” acquisition of an offseason that, reportedly, is set to include several.
Last year, Chapman posted a 3.79 ERA in 61.2 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates, saving 14 games. He also saw a career-low average fastball in a full season, the second-highest WHIP of his career and was once again not a full-time closer.
This begs the question: Why do the Red Sox like him enough to give him $10.75 million in 2025?
At face value, it’s easy to say Chapman is washed up. However, under the hood, he’s still among the game’s best left-handers.
There were 49 left-handed relievers to log at least 45 innings in 2024, among them, Chapman ranked ninth in FIP (2.99), fifth in xFIP (3.09) and second in strikeout rate (37.1%). While walks continue to haunt the veteran, he remains one of the best at racking up the strikeouts to offset, ranking eighth among the 49.
His velocity, though down overall last year, still is among the upper echelon of Major League Baseball. His 98.7 mph fastball on average ranks him in the 99th percentile (14th for four-seamers, second for sinkers), which allows him to remain effectively wild even as he gets deep into his 30s.
Last season, he even pinned Manny Machado to the plate with a 104.7 mph fastball to escape a jam.
Only three pitchers threw 50 pitches at least 102 mph in 2024: Ben Joyce, Mason Miller and Chapman. It’s clear Boston is prioritizing adding velocity to its bullpen from the left side, evidenced by the signing of Justin Wilson last month.
Last year, Boston’s left-handed relievers ranked tied for 25th in average fastball velocity. So, they seem to like the thought of bringing in guys who throw gas.
Moreover, there is a lot less risk involved in signing a reliever to a one-year deal. As is often the case, relievers are some of the most volatile performers year-to-year in sports. Couple that with the three-batter minimum and a pitcher who enters with nothing is much more susceptible to the blow-up outing.
At the end of the day, it’s just one outing out of 70, but it takes its toll on the overall numbers.
Regardless, that’s why a lot of teams seem to avoid shelling out long-term free-agent contracts to relief pitchers. Subsequently, this could explain why the Red Sox opted for Chapman over the much younger, much less checkered — we’ll get into that — Tanner Scott.
In recent history, some long-term reliever contracts include Edwin Díaz to the New York Mets, Josh Hader to the Houston Astros and Aroldis Chapman to the New York Yankees.
The former two are ongoing, but let’s see how they’ve looked thus far.
Díaz: Missed 2023 due to injury, then saw his ERA spike nearly two-and-a-half runs from his 2022 season.
Hader: Home runs per nine tripled, as did his ERA in Year 1 with Houston
Chapman: The back half of his deal saw his ERA jump to the high threes with over six walks per nine innings.
Those are just three examples and two have the chance to resurge as soon as next year, but that’s kind of the point. If Chapman disappoints in 2025, the Red Sox don’t have to pray it’s a one-off, whereas if Scott — who had an ERA over four his previous two seasons before 2023 — struggles, you have to rely on a bounceback.
Not to say Scott wouldn’t have been a better investment, but it’s more than fair rationale. Especially when you look at Chapman and him side-by-side in 2024.
Scott: 2.92 xERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA, 1.6 fWAR, 16.3 K-BB%
Chapman: 2.96 xERA, 2.99 FIP, 3.09 xFIP, 3.15 SIERA, 1.1 fWAR, 22.3 K-BB%
Under-the-hood metrics aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they paint a picture of that pitcher’s true talent for the previous campaign. While Scott had an ERA 2.04 runs better than Chapman’s, under-the-hood wasn’t so different from him.
In a vacuum, it makes one year, $10.75 mil for Chapman and four years, $65 million or so for Scott look like a worthwhile debate.
Now, let’s get into the downside of signing Chapman: The baggage.
In 2016, Aroldis Chapman was suspended 30 games for a domestic incident that took place the offseason prior, before getting traded to the Yankees from the Cincinnati Reds.
I won’t re-litigate the scenario much further, but the crux of the story is Chapman allegedly choked his girlfriend and fired a gun eight times at their Florida home in late October 2015.
Upon accepting his suspension, Chapman issued a prepared statement in which he maintained he didn’t harm his girlfriend but should’ve assessed better judgment in that scenario.
While it’s been over nine years since the alleged incident, with no reported incidents since, that kind of baggage — as it should — follows him to this day.
For the Red Sox, who had reportedly agreed to a trade for Chapman before backing out in light of the alleged incident, to decide now that it doesn’t outweigh the potential benefit his performance has on winning, is alarming, to say the least.
A potential 2015 Red Sox trade for Aroldis Chapman fell apart after domestic dispute issue (report)
This organization has been rife with public relations issues in recent years, whether it be Kevin Pillar’s controversial comments in 2020, or Matt Dermody’s homophobic tweets and debuting him during Pride Month in 2023, or the incident with Jarren Duran shouting a homophobic slur at a heckler in 2024.
It just doesn’t make sense for the team to voluntarily step in it this time, especially given the severity of what Chapman is accused of.
People can change — hopefully, he’s one of those people. But the fact the Red Sox organization once again presents its fan base with the choice between supporting someone with that kind of baggage or rooting for the team to lose is a classic case of its inability to read the room. Especially when other options make sense to fill that void as well.
