Analysis on every Red Sox spring training non-roster invite pitcher
With spring training underway, here’s a write-up with an analysis on every Red Sox non-roster invite pitcher. As of right now there are 12 arms in total, and this will be added to if there are more signed. That’s on top of three outfielders, six infielders, and four catchers for the position player side of things.
Simply put, a non-roster invitee/NRI means the player is invited to big-league camp and will get innings in big-league spring training games but is not on the 40-man roster. Usually, these are either prospects that the club is looking to ramp up the development of or veteran guys likely in Triple-A looking to find their way into a big-league role.
Cam Booser
Cam Booser in 2022 returned to professional baseball for the first time since 2017, spending the year at Double-A in the Diamondbacks organization before he spent 2023 with the WooSox. The 31-year-old struggled results-wise but flashed some upside, posting a 4.99 ERA while striking out batters at a mark of over 25% in 48 appearances for Worcester — and in his final 29 outings of the season, the lefty finished with an impressive 2.75 ERA and a 2.7 BB/9.
Booser flashes a fastball with ride at 93–95 while topping out at triple-digits, as he struggles to locate it at times and owned some rather poor in-zone rates but the command and control improved as the season went on. His velocity also plays up in general due to his strong extension, and he creates flatter approach angles up in the zone with his three-quarters release that he makes look rather easy.
The southpaw then hurls a gyro slider in the mid-to-high 80s that picked up a SwStr% near 20% in ’23; he threw strikes and commanded it very well while it can often flash life that’s more cutter-like with it having some decent lift to it. His older SoxProspects scouting report said he used to throw a true cutter in the low-90s but in that same report it said he was working it out of his arsenal — which it obviously appears that he did this season. To round out his pitch mix he then features a sweeper/curveball type of asset that got an impressive over 20 SwStr% this year in Triple-A, with it sitting low-80s and getting anywhere from 10" to 18" of sweep, averaging closer to 10".
He owns some rather low spin rates averaging below 2000 RPMs for each of his three pitches, but if he can gather consistency with his control and command his stuff could certainly play in the majors. With more consistency velocity-wise and swing-and-miss secondaries, Booser could be a candidate to see big-league time in 2024.
AJ Politi
Andrew “AJ” Politi, 26, has been a Worcester mainstay for the past two seasons despite some success, pitching to a 2.41 ERA in 38 ’22 outings for the WooSox, though took a bit of a step back this past season, tallying a less-impressive 4.46 ERA in 15 games for Worcester.
Politi gets some nice ride on the fastball at 93–95 but it lacks command and the control falters at times. His best pitch is a sharp 86–89 cutter that garnered an impressive near 17 SwStr% last season with great command/control, and he induced both whiffs and GBs with a loopy 79–81 curveball that has a near -10° VAA at a 12-to-6-like shape. He also seems to have completely ditched the changeup, not throwing it in ’22 nor ‘23.
The cutter is a very solid offering but with an inconsistent fastball and a curveball that’s not much of an in-zone asset, Politi lacks heavily against lefties, especially without his changeup. Improved results with the fastball and or a fourth offering are almost a must for him to see any future big-league success.
Melvin Adon
Recently signed to a minor-league deal by the Red Sox, 27-year-old Melvin Adon flashes some elite stuff, but it doesn’t exactly take a genius to see the flaws. He posted a 7.43 ERA in 40 outings for Triple-A Sacramento (Giants) with him being uncontrollably erratic at an 8.33 BB/9.
As said though, the upside is clearly there. He delivers from a three-quarters slot and can touch 102 while mainly sitting 97–99 with the sinker, averaging 15" of tail while he averaged 5–8" of sweep with the 87–89 slider.
The movement profile can be inconsistent at times with the slider but it attracted an impressive whiff rate north of 40%; the two pitches both induced ground balls at a ~60% rate and fed off low EVs while Adon struck out 11.2 per 9, but what’s plagued Adon the entirety of his professional career is the evident control issues — they reached a career-worst rate this season (8.33 BB/9 as mentioned) before San Francisco decided to pull the plug on him.
He lights up stuff models and his raw stuff gives him the ceiling of a big-league closer, but until his walk rates go down he won’t even conquer much success at the Triple-A level, never mind seeing the majors. I’m very excited to see how he does with Worcester this year though just due to the raw upside that Adon holds.
Lucas Luetge
The 36-year-old southpaw Lucas Luetge saw great success with the Yankees in 2021 and 2022, posting a 2.71 ERA across 107 outings between the two seasons, but had a horrid start to his year after being traded to the Braves (7.24 ERA in 12 G) before cutting ties with Atlanta. He comes to Boston looking to get his career back on track.
Luetge doesn’t exactly throw for velocity, featuring an 86–88 cutter as his main asset that he struggled to command last year which he pairs with a 75–77 sweeper that averages almost 20" of sweep. He then gets his whiffs with a low-to-mid 70s curveball that has an ultra-loopy -12.5° VAA and -15" of IVB, which he picked up over a 50% whiff rate with the Yankees in 2022 and is a fantastic two-strike option.
Luetge had great results with his secondaries in 2023 but the cutter got annihilated by barrels, leading to his poor 2023 results. His sweeper doesn’t pick up all that many whiffs with the degree of sweep it has but it garners soft contact well. With the lack of velocity, the name of the game is deception for Luetge.
The lefty is running out of time in his career given his age, but he’s the biggest name on this list with both proven and recent major-league success. Success in Triple-A and an injury or two from the bullpen could certainly have him see major-league time this year.
Chase Shugart
Chase Shugart had a rough year in 2023, posting an 8.22 ERA in 40 outings for the WooSox. The 27-year-old right-hander at just 5-foot-10 struggled with both control and command in 2023, but Shuguart can flash some solid stuff at times.
Shugart can get some decent life on the fastball while sitting mid-90s, but with a rather poor approach angle it doesn’t miss bats and can get it over the plate and the command can be shaky.
As for the secondaries, he features a mid-to-high 80s true slider that averages 5–8" of sweep while he can a lot of times flash shape more like a cutter reaching the low-90s. His older scouting reports describe him having more of a curveball, but his movement profile this year looks as if he switched to more of a sweeper; the pitch averaged 16" of sweep in the low-80s and got a solid number of whiffs. He then rounds out the arsenal with a high-80s changeup that he doesn’t have a consistent feel for and is used sparingly.
Shugart likely won’t see time in the majors in 2024 barring a breakout year in Triple-A; has the potential of an up-and-down reliever.
Justin Hagenman
The 27-year-old Justin Hagenman was acquired in mid-season the Kiké Hernandez trade along with Nick Robertson and saw great success in 2023 at the Triple-A level following a rough ’22 in AAA.
The 6-foot-3 righty in Hagenman slated a 2.78 ERA in 25 outings for Triple-A Oklahoma City (Los Angeles’ affiliate) before being dealt and he put up a mark of a 3.26 ERA with the WooSox across 16 games.
Hagenman delivers from a low, three-quarters release point and sits 91–94 with the fastball, getting some arm-side run. He throws it over the plate well but the pitch has a fringe command profile and it doesn’t miss bats nor induce grounders, in which he also relies on a high-80s cutter.
He then hurls a low-80s slider, a pitch that can get some topspin at times and misses bats at a solid rate, and will at times turn to a mid-80s changeup that has some nice tail to it. He doesn’t project all that much more than he’s showing right now as a swingman at-best type reliever.
Jorge Benitez
The 24-year-old southpaw Jorge Benitez spent seven seasons in Seattle’s organization and despite some control woes (5.9 BB/9) had a solid year for them in Double-A, slating a 2.14 ERA in 40 relief appearances.
The 6-foot-2 left-hander is on the leaner side (155 lbs.) and throws from a lower three-quarters slot, generating a flatter approach angle on (what was when he was healthy) a low-90s fastball that generates a solid rate of whiffs though more than not against lefties. He pairs it with a mid-70s curveball that gets a high rate of spin and has been commanded fairly well. His lack of velocity only gives him so much potential even with aspects of upside, however, which will probably have him be a Triple-A mainstay at best for the time being.
Alex Hoppe
Maybe the most underrated arm in Boston’s farm system, 24-year-old righty Alex Hoppe is filled with upside at a high-90s fastball that can occasionally touch triple-digits. After 31 outings with High-A (3.93 ERA, 12.5 K/9) he made his way up to Double-A for 12 appearances and put up a 4.50 ERA. He’s likely to start his year with the Sea Dogs but I’d imagine he will make it to Worcester at the very least by the end of the year.
Hoppe’s fastball can lack command at times but has good carry to it, he was tabbed as having the best slider in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. At 84–87 with some gyro shape to the pitch, it can suffer control woes at times but it induces plenty of soft contact and misses bats well. He then mixes in a mid-80s changeup that has usage at sparing rates. Don’t get fooled by where he is in the prospect rankings, that’s more just because he’s purely a reliever — Hoppe could even see big-league time as soon as this season if the results are there.
Luis Guerrero
** This write-up was from my post on 1/16 **
Luis Guerrero had a rise through the Red Sox system and rankings in 2023, as he was expected to begin the season in High-A Greenville but a great spring training had him start the season in Portland. The 23-year-old Dominican-born arm could see time at the big-league level this season after the righty dominated the Double-A level and made it to Triple-A by the end of the season despite some lackluster control.
Guerrero sits 96–98 with the fastball at a mid-4° VAA with his three-quarter arm slot, while he can occasionally touch triple digits. He struggles with both control/command but the pitch has a plus upside due to its characteristics and raw stuff.
There’s a lot to like with his splitter. Its spin rate is in the 800s and it has a strong ability to generate whiffs, though it is thrown sparingly with a rather inconsistent feel for it. Guerrero then flashes two slider profiles as secondaries, one being a tighter slutter-like gyro at 87–90 and the other being a more of a sweeper shape in the low-to-mid 80s that can reach as far as 15" of sweep (averages around 10"); the sweeper seems to be a new addition this season based off his older scouting reports and ’23 movement profiles. Both show an ability to miss bats and solid potential.
The control as mentioned though is very questionable for Guerrero with him putting up a 5.44 BB/9 in Double-A this season — he walked nearly a third of batters faced in his six outings at the Triple-A level too. He has some of the best raw stuff in the organization and it gives him a ceiling higher than a 17th-round pick out of a JUCO would usually have, but the control could be what holds him back from reaching his ceiling. Either way there’s a fairly decent shot Guerrero could see time in the majors in 2024.
Helcris Olivarez
Another low three-quarters arm slot lefty, 23-year-old Helcris Olivares put up a 6.05 ERA in 21 starts for the Rockies’ High-A affiliate in 2021, and missed most of the 2022 season plus all of the 2023 season due to a shoulder injury.
So, there’s obviously not much data available on him, but he’s still a projectable and athletic 6-foot-2 left-hander; and based on scouting reports he’s 93–97 with the fastball that can be a bit run-heavy while the secondaries lacked velocity, but the high-70s curveball was a solid asset for him that moves well and missed bats. He then mixed in a low-80s changeup. I could see him having a decent year with either the Sea Dogs or WooSox and seeing some big-league time in the future.
Frank German
The 26-year-old righty Frank German is probably a familiar name to Red Sox fans, as he hurled four big-league innings in 2022 for Boston but spent his 2023 between Chicago (CWS) and Cinninati’s Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a 7.78 ERA in 19 outings. He was originally a minor-league Rule 5 pick by Boston from the Yankees, like Kaleb Ort. After a two-month span with just one outing, an appearance in the complex league for Cincinnati, he was picked up by Boston and made an appearance in the complex league before finishing the year with three games in Low-A Salem.
German has some good velocity, sitting 95–98 with the fastball but he lacks shape with the pitch. He kills spin well and can miss bats with an 85–87 splitter/changeup that’s mainly thrown out-of-zone, while he is 85–87 with a gyro slider that he really struggled to control/command last year. The secondaries are lacking and the fastball is an average pitch at best, and combine that with a poor year at the Triple-A level this past season it’s hard to see him making any real jump to the majors anytime soon.
Joely Rodriguez
Joely Rodriguez spent his 2023 season with the Red Sox and put up a 6.55 ERA in 11 outings on top of some time spent on the injured list. He was recently re-signed by Boston, being brought on via a minor-league deal with an invite to big-league camp.
Rodriguez suffered a slight velocity drop in ‘23 — he was 90–92 with Boston this past year but in ’22 with the Mets, where he pitched to a 4.47 ERA in 55 outings along with very similar results the year before, he was 91–93 with his run-heavy sinker.
He throws from a low-to-mid-5 release height and is mainly sinker-changeup while mixing in a slider and four-seamer at very sparing rates, and he picked up a SwStr% above 20% with the changeup in ’23 but the sinker was not effective at all. He was able to pick up a ground ball rate near 60% with the pitch in ’22 but that number didn’t even reach 40% in ’23. The changeup is a plus pitch for him that can also pick up GBs at a strong rate but Rodriguez needs to get his sinker back if he wants to have any big-league success.