2023 Breakout Picks for Each Division
Six overlooked players you need to know for the upcoming season
As the days wind down toward the beginning of the 2023 season, it’s time for analysts to have one last crack at selecting their breakout picks. I’ve been crunching the numbers for about a month now and honed in on a few players that I believe are vastly underrated.
Following each player’s name, position and team, I’ve listed their average draft position (ADP) in fantasy leagues - per FantasyPros. If you’re yet to draft a team, these players may be bargains.
Let’s get into it.
AL East: Ryan Mountcastle - First Base - Baltimore Orioles (163 ADP)
You wouldn’t know it based on the results, but Mountcastle absolutely crushed the ball in 2022. He was eighth out of all qualified hitters with a barrel in 10% of his plate appearances (10.0 Brls/PA%) and his 61 total barrels ranked sixth in all of MLB.
Barrels are more of a process stat - reflecting the quality of a hitter’s contact, not the outcome of the play. So why didn’t the results show?
Perhaps no player was hurt more than Mountcastle when the Orioles pushed the left-field fence back at Oriole Park.
The change potentially cost him at least five home runs…
Mountcastle will, unfortunately, have to deal with the same left-field dimensions in 2023, but he was generally just unlucky with some of the placements of his hard-hit fly balls in 2022.
Due to his poor luck, Mountcastle’s average (.250) was 27 points lower than expected (.277 xBA) and his slugging took a more substantial hit (.423 vs .509 expected). He had the largest differential between his wOBA and xWOBA (-0.046) of any hitter.
Statistically, Mountcastle was the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2022. If he continues to hit the ball hard and in the air, with any improved fortune (and placement), he could be in for a monster season in 2023.
Bold Prediction: Mountcastle becomes eighth Oriole to hit 40 HR in a single season.
AL Central: Will Brennan - Outfield - Cleveland Guardians (464 ADP)
Brennan might not have a clear path to playing time with Steven Kwan, Myles Straw and Oscar Gonzalez making up Cleveland’s outfield, but the 25-year-old rookie could still make a significant impact in 2023.
Brennan, the Guardians’ #11-ranked prospect, surged from High-A to the MLB level over the past two years, thanks largely to his mature and polished approach at the plate.
Across 36 games in AA and 93 games in AAA (129 total) in 2022, Brennan slashed .314/.371/.479, driving in 107 runs and swiping 20 bags in 23 attempts.
Brennan’s 11.7 K% ranked third lowest out of all minor league hitters with at least 500 plate appearances. His low strikeout totals coupled with proficient plate discipline led to an impressive 0.72 BB/K ratio.
As part of his contact-heavy approach, Brennan hits a lot of ground balls (44.5% GB) but showcased some power potential for the first time in his career with 57 extra-base hits (40 2B) in 2022.
The heroics from Brennan in the minors led to a late-season promotion to the major league roster, where he continued his torrid stretch, posting a 158 OPS+ with just four strikeouts in 45 PA (11 G). He appeared in five postseason games and recorded two hits.
Brennan’s overall profile at the plate is akin to Kwan’s - few punchouts and lots of balls in play - albeit to a less extreme extent. If he can be anything close to what Kwan has been for Cleveland, it’s a win for the Guardians.
Bold Prediction: Brennan posts a 3.0+ WAR season with Guardians (proj. ~0.7 WAR).
AL West: Logan O’Hoppe - Catcher - Los Angeles Angels (311 ADP)
The Angels traded Brandon Marsh to the Phillies for O’Hoppe at last year’s trade deadline, and, while Marsh played an important role for Philadelphia as the team made its first World Series appearance since 2009, Philly fans may be cringing at the thought of the O’Hoppe trade in coming years.
O’Hoppe is MLB’s 53rd-ranked prospect, a testament to his strong pedigree, but his breakout could come sooner than many expect. Last season, in 447 PA between Philadelphia and Los Angeles’ AA affiliates, the 23-year-old slashed .283/.416/.544 with the fifth-highest WRC+ (159) of any hitter with at least 400 MiLB PA.
The most enticing aspect of O’Hoppe’s offensive game is his command of the strike zone. He drew 70 free passes to just 74 strikeouts (0.95 BB/K) while recording the highest slugging of any player with at least a 0.90 BB/K.
The only player whose 2022 performance was comparable to O’Hoppe in the minors was MLB’s #37 prospect Miguel Vargas (.511 SLG / 0.93 BB/K). Vargas is likely to get significant playing time at second base for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023 and was almost my breakout pick for the NL West.
The majority of O’Hoppe’s 2022 offensive onslaught came after his trade to Los Angeles, where he increased his fly ball rate to 53.9% and jumped his pull rate to 61%. The result was a .673 slugging percentage and 11 longballs in 29 games.
After bashing his way to a September call-up, O’Hoppe’s strong plate discipline translated to the big league club in a small sample (2 BB / 3 K in 16 PA). He also showcased some impressive blocking ability on defense.
Playing time isn’t guaranteed for O’Hoppe with veteran backstop Max Stassi projected to catch a significant chunk of innings. But one can figure that Los Angeles favors the younger backstop who they see as a major part of the future of their franchise.
Should the Angels overcome their postseason drought in 2023, you can bet that O’Hoppe probably played a big role.
Bold Prediction: O’Hoppe records 120 OPS+ en route to winning AL ROY.
NL East: Braxton Garrett - Starting Pitcher - Miami Marlins (376 ADP)
Miami has three young lefties with the potential to break out: Garrett, Jesus Luzardo (155 ADP) and Trevor Rogers (263 ADP). I want to focus on Garrett, who hasn’t garnered as much attention as the other two, being drafted in fantasy about 200 spots behind Luzardo and 100 places behind Rogers.
Many forget the hype around Garrett when he was drafted seventh overall out of high school, forgoing a scholarship to Vanderbilt. Much of the excitement was lost when the southpaw needed Tommy John surgery after just four career professional starts.
But Garrett persevered and quietly posted a 3.58 ERA in 88 innings last season. None of his standard numbers jumped off the page, nor did his peripherals (4.05 xERA), but Garrett did post a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.75) mainly thanks to his ability to limit free passes (2.45 BB/9).
In a small big league sample the year prior, Garrett was uncharacteristically wild, walking 20 batters in 34 innings with the Marlins. Not only did he cut down on the walks in 2022, but he also showed the ability to make quality pitches on the perimeter of the strike zone.
Control will be crucial for Garrett, as he has not shown overpowering stuff thus far in his big-league career (94 Stuff+) and relies on weak contact and chases for success. He ranked 31st out of 159 pitchers in soft contact rate (18.5% - min. 80 innings) and 14th in chase rate amongst that same group (36%).
Garrett threw a first-pitch strike 66% of the time in 2022 (29th out of 159 P). I’ve previously noted why this is important in my Chris Martin article, but here’s a brief refresher:
Hitters after a 1-0 count in 2022: .255/.371/.428
Hitters after an 0-1 count in ‘22: .213/.258/.334
Garrett is just 25 years old and made some late-season adjustments that could pay off in 2023. Formerly a fastball/curveball pitcher, he transformed himself into a majority sinker/slider arm late in 2022, with the ability to throw five pitches, including his changeup.
Garrett’s sinker provides an alternative pitch to his four-seam fastball, which has a middling spin rate and got crushed in 2022 (.531 SLG). The sinker fared better, accruing a .367 opponent slugging and -6 run-value, even with some poor luck based on batted ball data (.338 xSLG).
Thus, Garrett dropped his fastball usage by ten percent from July to September and increased his sinker usage by six percent. It wasn’t a drastic change, as Garrett had used the sinker about 20 percent of the time throughout the season, but he clearly preferred it over the four-seamer towards the latter half.
The slider was Garrett’s primary put-away pitch in 2022, as hitters batted .220 and whiffed 40 percent of the time against it. His change-up (.279 xWOBA) and curveball (.270 xwOBA) should continue to be effective change-of-pace pitches despite the latter yielding some ugly results last season (.437 wOBA).
If Garrett continues to progress in 2022, leaning on his sinker and slider as primary offerings and utilizing his curveball and changeup effectively around the perimeter of the zone, he could see another jump in performance as a key cog in Miami’s growing rotation.
Bold Prediction: Garrett leads Miami’s rotation in ERA (yes, over Alcantara).
NL Central: Mitch Keller - Starting Pitcher - Pittsburgh Pirates (352 ADP)
Once one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, Keller’s big-league struggles (6.02 ERA in 170.1 MLB IP) sent his stock plummeting heading into the 2022 season. The righty salvaged his chances of sticking in the Pirates rotation with a solid 3.91 ERA (106 ERA+) in 159 innings but was still far from the ace many had expected him to be.
In fact, many underlying numbers suggest regression from Keller in 2023. He was well below average in strikeout rate (20.1%) and walk rate (8.6%) and didn’t induce many whiffs or chases from opposing hitters.
So why am I predicting him to break out in 2023?
Keller made a couple of key adjustments to his arsenal in the middle of the 2022 season that helped make him much more effective in the second half. First, he began throwing a two-seamer/sinker to help keep hitters off his four-seam fastball.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, Keller dropped his previously tight-spinning cutter/slider in favor of a sweeping slider (sweeper).
Keller’s sweeper only got better over the course of the season. From the start of August onwards, it graded out as the nastiest slider in MLB (144 Stuff+*) ahead of some of the best pitchers in the game.
*Stuff+ essentially measures the physical characteristics of a pitch as a way to quantify ‘nastiness’ pitches.
The sweeper generated a .183 opponent average and .252 slugging over the course of the season. In September, Keller appeared to have mastered the pitch, as it registered its highest average spin rate (2754 RPM) resulting in an average of 19 inches of horizontal break and an absurd .168 wOBA over 134 offerings.
Over the final three months of the season, Keller used his sweeper about 25% of the time, balancing it with his four-seamer (~30%), two-seam/sinker (~24%) and curveball (~15%). He mixed in a changeup occasionally against left-handed hitters.
Aside from the sweeper, none of the pitches were especially impressive stuff-wise in 2022. The two-seamer collected a solid -8 Run-Value per Savant but only graded out at 96 Stuff+, similar to the four-seam (97 Stuff+). Solid grades, but not elite.
The good news for Keller is his two fastball offerings work well together and have played up stuff-wise this spring, corresponding with a slight improvement in average velocity.
In addition, Keller has added a new cutter into his repertoire, a pitch that could aid his performance again lefties. He previously threw a cutter until the 2022 season, but this new version acts more like a gyro-slider, averaging 91.1 MPH with 2424 RPM. The older version averaged 86.1 MPH and 2370 RPM.
The results have been there so far in Grapefruit League play, as Keller’s Stuff+ (113) is up from a 103 mark last season. The adaptability shown by the 26-year-old should lead to continued improvement as he prepares for his first-career Opening Day start for the Pirates.
Bold Prediction: Keller finishes top five in NL Cy Young voting.
NL West: Ryan McMahon - Second Base - Colorado Rockies (201 ADP)
McMahon was one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball over the last two years. His 19 Outs Above Average ranked third in MLB behind Ke’Bryan Hayes (30) and Nolan Arenado (24) and just ahead of Matt Champan (18).
But with Brendan Rodgers suffering a should injury in spring camp, Colorado seems willing to have McMahon open the season as its second baseman, a position he has proven capable of handling at the major-league level.
McMahon hasn’t quite tapped into the power potential the Rockies hoped he had back when he ranked top four in their system. The 28-year-old has eclipsed 20 home runs three times in his MLB career, but his home ballpark factors and ability to hit the ball hard suggest he has far more left in the tank.
Out of 118 MLB hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past two seasons, McMahon ranks 24th in average exit velocity (80th percentile) and 36th in hard-hit percentage (70th percentile). Punishing the ball at this rate while playing half your home games in Coors Field would suggest some gaudy power numbers.
It’s clear that McMahon made a concerted effort to drive more balls in the air over the past two seasons. His average launch angle rose to 12.6 degrees between 2021-22 (akin to Bryce Harper & Rafael Devers) after averaging 8.6 from 2018-20. The change helped boost his offensive performance from poor (83 OPS+) to about league-average (98 OPS+).
But McMahon made another, perhaps just as crucial, adjustment in the second half of the 2022 season that allowed him to channel his raw power into production.
No power hitter sprayed balls in the air the opposite way as often as McMahon through the first several months of the season. From Opening Day through the end of July, 63.2% of McMahon’s flyballs were hit to the opposite field.
Using the whole field isn’t necessarily a bad thing but, for hitters whose main strength is their raw power, it can be detrimental. I’ve previously referred to an article by Eno Sarris regarding a decrease in opposite-field home runs, but I think it’s worth sharing again because it helps explain why McMahon’s propensity to hit opposite-field fly balls put a damper on his performance over the past two seasons.
“Even if you account for the quality of the batted ball, pulled balls have more power than their opposite-field counterparts. In other words, pulled Barrels do better than opposite-field Barrels, generally. In the Statcast era, the slugging percentage on pulled Barrels was 3.299, and on opposite-field Barrels it was 2.467. This year, that last number is down to 2.056 — still good, but not as good as pulling it.”
The full article from Sarris can be found here: link.
McMahon’s spray charts over the past two years tell the story. If you look at just his home runs, it seems as if he’s been pretty successful in using the whole field.
But when factoring in fielding outs, it’s easy to see that McMahon’s pulled fly balls leave the yard far more often than those hit the other way. Look at all those flyouts to left field.
The charts make a nice visual as to how often McMahon went the other way over the course of the full season, but the split percentages below demonstrate the aforementioned adjustment he made about three-quarters of the way through the 2022 season.
There is no doubt that McMahon is most dangerous when he hits the ball in the air up the middle and to the pull-side. He seemed to realize that around the time of the trade deadline, drastically cut down his opposite-field fly balls and shifted his approach more towards driving the ball up the middle.
The change in approach was successful, after slashing .231/.329/.365 (85 WRC+) up until August, McMahon hit .271/.322/.500 (114 WRC+) the rest of the way. He accrued half his fWAR (1.5) in the last 55 games of the season.
If McMahon hits the ball in the air to center more often than left in 2023, he should prove to be a much more productive hitter. Ideally, he will continue to get the bat head out even further in order to more consistently to pull flyballs.
The shift-rule change should benefit McMahon as well, as he was shifted in 47.2% of his plate appearances in 2022 and hit 87% of his ground balls either up the middle or to the pull-side.
McMahon has crushed the ball this spring. His 97.8 MPH average exit velocity ranks second out of all hitters with at least 15 recorded batted balls. He has yet to pull a flyball but has two bombs to straightaway center.
If McMahon sticks with the adjustments he made late in the 2022 season, he could pace all second basemen in home runs in 2023 en route to a breakout season. If he manages to further increase his pull rate, he could be one of the more dangerous hitters in the National League.
Bold Prediction: McMahon wins an NL Silver Slugger award as a second baseman.
While some of my bold predictions may be … well … bold, I do have general confidence in the ability of these six players to translate their talents to unforeseen success in 2023.
The data presented isn’t a guarantee for imminent results, but I’d much rather put stock in players who have demonstrated adaptability and/or a disciplined approach than not.
As always, feedback is much appreciated. Feel free to come back at the end of the season and heckle me if these guys flop.
I have a hunch that won’t happen though.