Wilyer Abreu and the Eagle Eye
An analysis of the overlooked prospect in the Vazquez trade
The Boston Red Sox clubhouse was best described as despondent following Christian Vazquez being dealt to the Houston Astros on August 2nd of last season. Still mired in the playoff hunt, trading away one of the team’s leaders seemed akin to waving a white flag on the 2022 season.
But Boston general manager Chaim Bloom largely stood pat at the deadline, declining to deal away other impending free agents such as Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez. The 2022 trade deadline sums up the Red Sox front office’s mindset during the Bloom era: remain competitive without hindering opportunities for long-term success.
While Boston made efforts to remain in the chase for a wildcard spot, it is clear that the offer they received for Vazquez was too good to refuse. This spring, many fans have had a chance to see why this was the case.
Former Houston prospects Enmanuel Valdez (#18 BOS Prospect) and Wilyer Abreu (#23) have flashed impressive offensive potential in games so far in Grapefruit League competition. Valdez, in particular, has become a fan favorite, amalgamating five free passes in just 15 plate appearances in addition to lacing a 379 ft home run in a left-on-left matchup.
The strong plate discipline and power-oriented approach by Valdez have drawn comparisons to San Diego Padres star Juan Soto. While the excitement may seem exaggerated, the side-by-side is quite enticing.
But a deeper dive shows that the ‘other’ prospect in the Vazquez trade, Abreu, may actually have closer ties to Soto’s on-base ability.
Let’s get this out of the way first: it’s probably unfair to compare any prospect to Soto. He broke into the majors at 19(!) years old, is still just 24, and has a .950 career OPS (157 OPS+) and 1.13 BB/K ratio.
Abreu is 23 years old and strikes out a great deal (26.4 K%), but here’s the exhilarating aspect: he walked 114 times last season in 129 games (19.7 BB%). Abreu was on pace to exceed Soto’s MLB-leading 135 BB (19.3 BB%).
Boston actually had four players in the top seven of all MiLB players in BB% (min 490 PA) - Niko Kavadas (2nd - 19.8%), Abreu (3rd), Max Ferguson (18.2%), and Brainer Bonaci (7th - 18.0%).
Bonaci, the Red Sox's #17-ranked prospect, spent 2022 in single-A Salem and is particularly intriguing due to his young age (19), defense and base-stealing ability (28/34 SBA).
Kavadas’s strong presence at the plate vaulted him from Salem to A+ Greenville to AA Portland in just his second pro season. The offensive potential is real with Kavadas (170 WRC+) but his defensive limitations (1B/DH) could hinder his impact, especially if he continues to punch out at a high rate (29.5 K%).
Abreu is the only one of the four on the 40-man roster and has the potential to impact the major-league team in 2023. With an ability to play all three outfield positions and successfully steal bases (31/34 SBA), he should provide insurance for a Red Sox roster riddled with players with an injury history.
Strong plate discipline will play at the major-league level. Nine of the 12 postseason teams in MLB last season were in the top half of the league in walk rate. The Braves and Phillies were slightly below average, and the Guardians were only able to combat their glaringly low 7.3 BB% with an impressive 18.3 K%.
There are concerns that Abreu could be too passive at the plate, though his power numbers suggest that he can be an asset even if teams throw more pitches in the zone. He has knocked 80 extra-base hits in 744 at-bats over the past two seasons.
Abreu’s all-around refined approach included a proclivity towards launching the ball to the pull-side (42.4 Pull% / 44.3 FB% in 2022). This is advantageous because pulled fly balls typically travel farther than those hit the opposite way, even if they have the same exit velocity, due to spin and extra force created from the bat traveling farther before contact.
The pulled-flyball power has been on full display this spring, as evidenced by Abreu’s grand slam against the Phillies on Thursday.
With an eagle eye and strong pull power, combined with defensive flexibility and the ability to swipe bags, Abreu is the exact type of player that can be a useful asset for any MLB team. Keep an eye on his performance in 2023 as he patiently forges his way towards cracking the major-league roster.