Wikelman Gonzalez teeters on promotion with hot stretch
Wikelman Gonzalez teeters on promotion with hot stretch
After a slow start to his season, Wikelman Gonzalez has turned a corner. In his first 8 starts of the season, Gonzalez could only manage 26.2 IP and surrendered 22 earned runs on a whopping 28 walks. The encouraging sign was the strikeout numbers were still substantial.
It was his start on May 27th that the 21-year-old began to turn the corner. Recording 12 strikeouts without walking a batter in 5.2 IP, it was by far his most impressive outing of the season. Since the beginning of that game, Gonzalez has pitched 26.2 IP in 6 starts and recorded 42 strikeouts while allowing just 10 walks. For a young pitcher in the lower levels of the minor leagues, honing in their command is one of the best ways of proving they are ready for the next level.
The Dominican native signed with the Red Sox as a 16-year-old at the beginning of the 2018 international signing period. In his fifth full season in the organization, he must be added to the 40-man roster before the 2023 Rule-5 draft in December. As long as he continues this level of production, combined with the looming promotion, he is a no-brainer to be protected from selection.
One thing to take note of in this stretch for Gonzalez is what kind of contact he’s inducing. In the first 8 starts, he was getting an even split of 50% groundballs and 50% flyballs, with an 8% pop-up rate (double counted in the flyball rate). In the next 6 starts, he induced fewer groundballs at 39% and more flyballs at 61%, though only improved on his pop-up rate by 1%. These rates feel almost flipped for the production he’s getting with this type of contact.
One reason that it could be pointed to as not being a fluke, is his strike rate and swinging strike rate, which is also bleeding into his improved walk rate. Now at a 63% strike rate (6% increase) and 18% swinging strike rate (4% increase), he’s now challenging hitters on a more regular basis.
Is pitching at a rate of 2.01 ERA with a 61% flyball rate sustainable? It’s impossible to say without getting a peak behind the curtain at the quality of contact. With that said, anybody who regularly scours baseball analytics could tell you that one of those is likely to give. For reference, Gonzalez’s flyball rate in the 6-game stretch would rank him as the 2nd highest flyball rate in all of the minor leagues among qualified pitchers.
In the meantime, Gonzalez will continue to take the bump for the Greenville Drive, with a promotion to AA Portland on the horizon.
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