What's the plan for Bobby Dalbec? Three hypothetical trades for the struggling infielder
Homers, strikeouts, and not much in between. The duality of Bobby Dalbec has proven ineffective, and his time in the Red Sox organization is likely nearing a close. At just 27, Dalbec still has the potential to contribute at the big league level. The only question is, where will it be?
Dalbec entered last season fresh off a breakout 2021, posting a 106 wRC+ and hitting 25 home runs. His batted-ball data was off the charts, particularly his 98th-percentile barrel rate and 91st-percentile average exit velocity. Dalbec seemed like a Joey Gallo-type bat; elite power that would outweigh the huge strikeout numbers.
However, things could not have gone worse for Dalbec since his eye-opening 2021 campaign. In his 366 plate appearances since Dalbec has put up a 79 wRC+ and a staggering 34.2 K%. A once top prospect for the Red Sox has been passed over for a bench role, even as Triston Casas has had some growing pains in his first full season as the Red Sox first baseman.
Despite his struggles with the team as of late, Dalbec has still garnered interest from around the league. In December, Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that the Tampa Bay Rays expressed interest after the Red Sox shopped him around. Rumors continued to circulate when Peter Gammons of MLB.com reported that the Red Sox were continuing to shop around Dalbec on May 14.
Teams around the league seem to be intrigued by Dalbec’s continued production in AAA. Dalbec has a .927 OPS and seven home runs with the Worcester Red Sox in 2023 and displayed his incredible raw power with a 515-foot homer on May 19. Gammons also reported that some teams view him as a potential everyday third base option due to the athleticism and versatility he’s shown in AAA. (Dalbec has played five positions so far this year)
So if Dalbec seems to still hold value around the league and the Red Sox have no interest in giving him major league playing time, what is the next step for Bobby Dalbec? The Red Sox don’t have a lot of holes on offense, and relief depth seems like a realistic need for what Dalbec’s return could look like. The Red Sox have already proven to be active in the trade market, acquiring middle infielder Pablo Reyes from the A’s and young righty Diego Hernandez from the Yankees. So let’s have some fun and mock up some hypothetical trades for the big 27-year-old from Seattle.
Red Sox receive: Sam Moll
Athletics receive: Bobby Dalbec, Chris Murphy
It seems more likely that Dalbec would be headed to a non-contender, and the A’s are the definition of one. There’s little motivation for a team to trade for the Arizona State product and not play him, and a team like the A’s can surely guarantee playing time.
Billy Beane and Co. can take a chance on a fairly young player with proven MLB success; Almedys Díaz and Jesus Aguilar have had dreadful seasons and it shouldn’t be hard for Dalbec to get starts at corner infield positions consistently. They don’t have much to play for and a change of scenery with lower expectations could benefit Dalbec greatly. Murphy has shot down Red Sox prospect rankings after a dismal start to his AAA career but offers potential starting depth for the lowly A’s, and is still just 24. By including him in this deal, the Red Sox are also able to open up another 40-man spot, which could prove valuable in a roster crunch.
The Red Sox have gotten lackluster production from their lefty relievers, as Joely Rodriguez remains a question mark and Richard Bleier (who has since been placed on the 15-day IL) has struggled mightily. Moll has put up a 5.51 ERA with a 4.76 FIP, but those numbers are bloated by a single outing where he gave up five earned runs. Moll is great at limiting barrels, and while he struggles with his control, Moll has been excellent against lefties, with a 2.44 FIP and a .172 BAA.
With control through 2028, Moll can be a meaningful contributor in the Red Sox bullpen, while the A’s can take a shot on a high-ceiling player as they head for another season in the basement of the AL West.
Red Sox receive: Angel Felipe
Padres receive: Bobby Dalbec, Tyler Dearden
Remember when I said it seemed likely that Bobby Dalbec would be headed to a non-contender? Well, with Chaim Bloom, sometimes it’s best to expect the unexpected. so let’s draw up a trade with a potential World Series contender. With the Padres’ offense reeling as of late, they might view Dalbec as a possible diamond in the rough as they desperately try and contend in the NL West.
San Diego’s start of the season came out of left field after a massive spending spree in the off-season, and they sit at an exciting 21-26 through nearly two months of the season. Superstar third baseman Manny Machado has just landed on the injured list with a torn ligament in his hand, supplying a blow to a Padres team that has ranked last in a number of offensive categories. While they continue to offer roster spots to Rougned Odor (61 wRC+) and Brandon Dixon (-22 wRC+), Dalbec could be an intriguing spark-plug replacement; a big bat who can back-up Machado at third and platoon with lefty Jake Cronenworth at first. Dearden has had a solid year in AA Portland and offers a lottery-ticket outfielder who helps strengthen the Padres’ fairly weak organizational outfield depth.
For the Red Sox team without a lot of needs on offense, it makes sense to go after an arm, and Felipe is an eye-opening, high-reward arm with a lot of inherent risk. Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Rays in 2018, Felipe has been a mixed bag in his minor league career, sporting a 4.74 ERA through 241 innings. He’s struggled in AAA El Paso this year with a 7.47 ERA (3.57 FIP) and would require a 40-man roster spot. However, Felipe’s velocity and physical tools are what would interest the Red Sox; his fastball has topped out a 101 mph and he throws a plus slider. If the Red Sox believe they can help harness his spotty control, Felipe can be a back-end bullpen option for the years to come.
The Padres need offense and may need to act quickly if they don’t want to fall out of contention in a competitive NL West. With a strong group of pitchers and Felipe holding a 40-man spot, they may be willing to move on from the volatile reliever in order to retain some much-needed depth. For the Red Sox, they’re able to move on from Dalbec while getting back a high-risk, explosive arm in the process.
Red Sox receive: Sam Hentges, Zack Collins
Guardians receive: Bobby Dalbec, Jorge Alfaro, Christian Koss, Lynoll James
Again, trading for a major league-caliber offensive player doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the Red Sox, so examining potential relief options seems more realistic. This proposed swap with the Guardians requires a lot more moving parts, thus likely more unrealistic. Still, this deal makes sense for both sides as they each try and contend in their respective divisions.
The Guardians have been hindered by a lack of production versus left-handed pitching and offensive output from their catchers. Cleveland ranks 29th in MLB with a dismal 74 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and a lefty killer like Dalbec could offer a boost to their underperforming offense. If given a chance to platoon with Josh Naylor/Josh Bell at first base and DH, Dalbec could fall back into a rhythm; he holds a career 128 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
The Guardians’ catching situation has been a disaster, as the unexciting tandem of Mike Zunino and Cam Gallagher has combined for a 34 wRC+, the second-worst in the game. Alfaro has crushed the ball in AAA, posting a .955 OPS in 148 at-bats, and even if he’s only a league-average bat in the majors will be a significant upgrade to the Guardians’ situation now. The Red Sox also may have some motivation to move him soon, with his upward mobility clause opt-outs looming. Koss and James are both top 60 Red Sox prospects, with James having a slightly higher ceiling and Koss closer to the bigs. Koss turned some heads with a solid season in AA last year but has struggled to find his footing to start off this year. Both prospects are throw-ins and are easily replaced to fill a different need of the Guardians.
Of all the players the Red Sox could acquire in these mock trades, Hentges has the most big-league success and probably the highest potential. He was an elite reliever in 2022, putting up a 2.32 ERA across 62 IP with a Baseball Savant page littered with red bubbles. However, he might be a player who they’re willing to move, as they have the sixth-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball and are known for their elite pitching development. He’s dealt with shoulder inflammation so far in 2023 and has been limited to 4 appearances of 11.57 ERA ball. (2.44 FIP…) If he can stay healthy and be anything close to his 2022 self, he will be an elite option in the back end of the Red Sox pen. Collins is a placeholder who has hit the ball well in AAA Columbus and can easily be called up should Connor Wong or Reese McGuire suffer an injury.
Mock trades are more fun to do than anything, but doing the research to put them together is valuable in quantifying what a return might look like for a package involving Dalbec. Chaim Bloom hasn’t hesitated to fill needs and make changes with underperforming players so far in 2023, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if Bobby Dalbec is out the door come to the trade deadline in July. And now, just to wait on the burning question. For who?
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