Time for a Red Sox Offseason Reality Check

The discourse about the current state of the Red Sox has gone very far off the rails, and is missing important context. Are things really as bad as they seem?

Charles Krupa | Credit: AP

For a lot of people, Christmas Eve is a day for celebration, reflection and merriment. But for many Red Sox fans, it was a day of anger and frustration boiling over.

Coming off back-to-back 78-84 seasons, a change in the chief baseball officer role, and team officials talking a big game about offseason activity, the Red Sox have not made any franchise-altering moves as they prepare for the 2024 season.

New CBO Craig Breslow has dished out just $1M in free agent dollars this winter to a single player—reliever Cooper Criswell, who has a minor league option remaining and isn’t a lock to be on the opening day roster.

Breslow has made a few trades, most notably ones that sent out Alex Verdugo and brought in Tyler O’Neill. Breslow grabbed some pitching depth in the Verdugo deal and smaller trades for Justin Slaten and Isaiah Campbell.

But for big moves? The Red Sox were barely—if at all—involved in the bidding for Shohei Ohtani, and seemed to be a pawn in Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s plan to drive up the price for his preferred destination in LA. The Sox also didn’t make much noise for Juan Soto before he was dealt to the rival Yankees.

Starting pitching remains the single-biggest need of the Red Sox this offseason and despite their dalliance with Yamamoto and their connection to most of the other starters on the free agent and trade markets, they haven’t addressed this need as the New Year approaches.

Payroll spending, or lack thereof, has been a huge public sticking point. Not only did the Red Sox stay under the Collective Bargaining Tax in 2023, at least nine other teams had higher CBT payrolls on the season. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, this represents the lowest mark relative to other teams in the entire time Fenway Sports Group has owned the Red Sox.

Naturally, Red Sox fans are upset about all this, and things exploded on Christmas Eve when MassLive’s Sean McAdam posted the following in his column:

This set off a firestorm of responses on social media, including some imploring FSG to sell the team.

Tensions had been bubbling over for a bit. The Yamamoto sweepstakes were a frustrating affair. While details of how the Yankees, Mets and the eventually-successful Dodgers courted Yamamoto were leaked all over the Internet, virtually nothing leaked about the Red Sox efforts that ended up being true outside of one meeting.

Then Jared Carrabis said on both his podcast and the Play Tessie podcast that he previously heard from a trusted source that the Red Sox would be aggressive on Yamamoto “but if they don’t get him, I’m not sure they’re going to spend much at all this winter.”

And, in the aforementioned Speier report, also from Saturday:

Red Sox fans have reason to be frustrated. It’s been a lousy couple of years. But I’m taking the opportunity in this space to present some viewpoints on the current state of affairs that seem to be lacking from the discussion.

I don’t intend with this piece to cover up or excuse the things that have gone wrong with the Red Sox the last few years and this offseason so far. 

But things may not be as bad as they seem, and much about the current Red Sox organization are being glossed over or are completely missing from the discourse.

The Offseason Has Still Barely Started

A perfect storm of factors has led to one of the slowest-moving hot stove seasons in recent MLB history. First it was Ohtani’s long courtship that held things up, and then Yamamoto’s. 

Now, the two biggest free agent pitchers on the market are the aforementioned Montgomery and Blake Snell—who are both represented by Scott Boras, who notoriously bleeds out contract negotiations to get the best deals for his clients. The biggest free agent hitter, Cody Bellinger, is also a Boras guy. It seems the glacial pace of the offseason will not be abating soon.

Very few other significant free agents have actually signed to date. Per Ed Hand’s 2023/24 MLB Free Agency Tracker, just 17 of the top 50 free agents on his list have signed. Plenty of teams besides the Red Sox have made few if any big offseason moves to date—the Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros, Guardians and Twins come to mind just in the American League. The Rays biggest move so far was a sell move, sending Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers.

This is not the best free agent class, and depending on how you feel about Snell’s 2023 season, there is no surefire #1 starter the Red Sox badly need among the remaining free agents.

But Speier mentioned Saturday the Red Sox are interested in the next tier of free agents starters—including a possible reunion with James Paxton and the likes of Japanese starter Shoto Imanaga and former White Sox star Lucas Giolito.

These aren’t the most exciting names. But one or two of them would go a long way to providing much-needed stability in the rotation at a cost commensurate with their expected output. Signing them would also possibly allow the Red Sox to trade one of several controllable MLB pitchers to help meet other needs—including for a top-of-the-rotation arm.

When word trickled out about the Red Sox possibly not being willing to spend on the likes of Montgomery and Snell, online ire immediately turned to FSG for once again being stingy with money for top-tier free agents.

But I raise this question, one for which we may never know the answer: Does the new pitching-centric Red Sox front office want to go bidding for Montgomery or Snell and FSG is saying no, or does the front office not think those pitchers are going to produce to justify their expected contracts?

Montgomery would fit the Red Sox well as an innings-eater with a ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. But he is more hittable than most top-rotation arms. Since it’s not my money, I would’ve already offered him whatever he wants. But I don’t run the team, and there are valid reasons not to extend yourself past five or six years on someone with his repertoire and track record.

The Red Sox should not spend indiscriminately on starting pitching just to say they did and placate the fanbase. There’s a ton of pressure on Breslow to get his first significant signing or signings with the Red Sox right. Rebuilding the Red Sox pitching is going to take multiple years—they can’t fix it all in one offseason, or with one signing or trade.

Will the Red Sox go into 2024 with a surefire #1 ace-level starter on the roster? It is increasingly looking like the answer to that is no barring a trade. But the Red Sox very well could go into next season with a solid, playoff-caliber team in all other areas, and still be in a good spot to acquire an ace in-season or play in the more loaded 2024/25 free agent starter market.

[Side note: All the reports I’ve cited in this article regarding the Red Sox supposed spending plans appear to come from sources within the industry and not the Red Sox themselves. That makes those statements about the Red Sox budget speculation—informed speculation no doubt, but still not definitive information. 

The Red Sox have been so extraordinarily tight-lipped this offseason that it feels only they know for sure what their spending plans will be. Keep that in mind when you see these anonymous industry reports.]

Are We Sure the Red Sox Position Players Are That Bad?

The Red Sox, as a big league team, have a lot going for them despite the constant drumbeat of complaints about last place finishes the last two years. I’m not disputing the fact they finished last in the AL East in 2022 and 2023. But, it’s foolish to act like all last place teams are created equal. Besides the Yankees in their own division, only one 4th-place team in MLB had a better record than the Red Sox in 2023—the Padres, by one game.

This is not good enough for the Boston Red Sox, with their resources, fanbase and year-in and year-out expectations. I just offer this as a way to say the Red Sox are not some hapless bunch of dunces masquerading as a baseball team. There are a lot of strong ballplayers on this team and with the right additions in the still-young offseason there’s no reason they can’t be in the playoff hunt in 2024. 

I’ll start by going over the position players.

Rafael Devers is a star who just turned 27 and despite continued worries about his 3B defense is an elite offensive performer and lineup anchor entering his prime hitting years. Triston Casas also already feels like a star as he heads into his age-24 season, with an unreal hitting approach and a clear desire to improve.

Trevor Story will enjoy his first healthy, normal offseason as a member of the Red Sox. His SS defense should continue to provide a stabilizing presence while he tries to get back on track offensively to be the dynamic contributor he was signed to be.

In the outfield the Red Sox can run an array of talented hitters and defenders on a daily basis. There is much to like about the all-around games of O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. Masataka Yoshida seems ticketed to DH duty, but that’ll help maximize his value as a player as he continues to acclimate to America following an up-and-down rookie year. 

Rumors persist around the Sox and Teoscar Hernandez, who would provide needed 25+ HR power from the right side and free the team up to deal one of the aforementioned young outfielders to address other needs.

Pitchers love throwing to Connor Wong and he’s shown flashes of offensive potential despite high strikeout numbers. Reese McGuire is an adequate compliment but the Red Sox have brought in Roberto Perez as possible competition for his roster spot.

Second base remains an area of concern for 2024, but Breslow has been consistent about wanting to find a solution on the trade market. Jorge Polanco and Ha-Seong Kim will continue to be mentioned—again, the trade market has barely moved. Pablo Reyes is a fan favorite but feels best served as a bench bat, and he’d be a damn good one at that. 

With Justin Turner possibly not returning in free agency, there are well-founded concerns about a leadership vacuum in the Red Sox clubhouse. I posit that a healthy Story could step into that vacuum—he was a leader in Colorado and as a high-energy performer could finally have the opportunity to be one in Boston. He has already offered to take young Sox infielders under his wing as the club works to improve its putrid 2023 defense.

Reiterating this point—there is a lot to like here. It’s not perfect, but the Red Sox are not starting from a bad place with this group of players.

The Glass-Half-Full Look at Red Sox Pitching

Chaim Bloom’s huge failure during his tenure in Boston was not developing and acquiring big-league caliber pitching nor putting the right people in place to maximize the capabilities of the pitchers they had.

Breslow is a former big league pitcher who had success building a pitching program in Chicago that developed Justin Steele. Breslow’s first big hire was to bring in Andrew Bailey from San Fran as pitching coach. Bailey was instrumental in helping turn Kevin Gausman into an ace-level pitcher and developing Logan Webb into one too.

Pitchers must execute on their own. But having different voices around them now is undoubtedly positive, and could mean a lot for the talented pitchers on the 40-man roster who simply were not being maximized under the old pitching coaching and development infrastructure. And yes, the Red Sox do in fact have many talented pitchers under control for 2024.

We already know what Brayan Bello can do. He should be an extension candidate soon. Bailey can help Bello improve on producing more swing-and-miss stuff and consistency on his slider.

Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck don’t have defined roles for 2024 but are preparing as if they’re going to be starters. More significantly, both guys are healthy and having normal offseasons heading into 2024. Recall that both were rehabbing for major surgeries heading into 2023. The Red Sox should not hesitate to see what both can bring starters in spring training under Bailey’s tutelage before making a call on their roles.

Can the Red Sox rely on Chris Sale at all? Not really. But, like Whitock and Houck, he finished 2023 healthy and is heading into 2024 via his first normal offseason in a while. Sale appears poised to head down the path of many great pitchers before him—learning how to be a crafty veteran getting buy on guile and smarts as his pure stuff diminishes. He has one more year on his contract and has every incentive to perform.

Nick Pivetta has stayed fully healthy the last two years and flourished in the second half of 2023 while honing his pitch mix. After the All-Star break Pivetta had a 3.30 ERA, 3.28 FIP, .196 BAA and a 102:19 K:BB ratio in 73.2 innings. Like Sale, he is a free agent after 2024 and looks to cash in bigtime if he can extrapolate that performance over a full year. He’ll work with Bailey to keep maximizing his stuff.

Lastly, some folks seem to forget Kutter Crawford exists or that he had actual success as a starter last year. Many were mad that the Red Sox were “outbid” by the Royals for the services of free agent Seth Lugo. The Red Sox may not have extended themselves for Lugo because of the presence of Crawford, who had the same 3.83 FIP as Lugo in 2023 in 17 fewer innings—Crawford is also 27, Lugo is 34. Crawford may best be suited for a bullpen role or as a trade asset. Either way, he’s a valued arm.

The Sox bullpen is one of the main strengths of the team, and while they could stand to add another established lefty, a group highlighted by Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber, Brennan Bernardino and any of the above starters who don’t make the rotation will be a force to be reckoned with in the AL East once again.

Yes, this group needs reinforcements at the top of the rotation. But there is talent here and with a new direction from one of the top pitching coaches in the game, there is a strong foundation from which to build.

What You’re Not Hearing About FSG Right Now

Lastly, I want to address the discourse around Red Sox ownership.

Calls to sell the team are both futile and unwarranted. FENWAY Sports Group is not selling the Red Sox anytime soon. Ownership of the Red Sox and Fenway Park is central to the prestige of their brand, and there’s zero indication FSG is not making money hand over fist because of the ballclub and ballpark. As long as that keeps happening, selling feels out of the question.

FSG has done many great things with the team and Fenway since 2002. Those do not absolve them for not spending as much on payroll relative to other teams like they did before 2020, or other mistakes they’ve made in recent years.

But there’s a difference between voicing displeasure with ownership by demanding they do a better job, and outright demanding they sell. After all, we are still in the same calendar year in which FSG handed out the biggest contract in team history.

Yes, ownership tends to put its foot in its mouth regularly with unforced errors like Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comment in November. But that doesn’t mean the Red Sox have bad owners—look no further than places like Oakland, Colorado and Pittsburgh if you want to see what actual bad MLB team owners look like.

[Side note: The “full throttle” comment by Werner has taken on a more annoying life of its own than any comment by a Sox official in a long time, far eclipsing Chaim Bloom’s “underdog” comment at the last trade deadline. The Red Sox haven’t done much this offseason but the content makers have to have something to talk about, so it’s been full throttle on “full throttle.” 

I wonder, though: do people remember the full quote where Werner made the “full throttle” comment? It’s probably not what you thought it was—it wasn’t for me when I looked it up. I was expecting it to be something like “we’re going to be full throttle this winter in improving the team” or “we promise fans to be full throttle in all we do this winter.” Instead it was this, via NESN.com:

This was an ill-advised comment by Werner, and the Red Sox allowing this to be the dominant PR narrative of the offseason was a blunder. But it could be spun as less of a promise from ownership but more of a mandate for all of baseball operations down to the coaches and players. Still, it’s a mandate that hasn’t been fulfilled so far this winter.

When Sam Kennedy and others have to face the music at Winter Weekend in January, I fully expect this to be the way they address inevitable questions about the comment. The cat is way out of the bag, and I doubt it will make much of a difference unless the Red Sox make some actual “full-throttle” moves between now and then, but be prepared for that to be the narrative from the team.] 

Besides, how do we know another owner would be better than FSG? People call for a sale but I rarely ever hear anyone suggest who they want to own the team instead. Some of us are old enough to remember when the Red Sox had actual bad owners—it wasn’t fun. The grass is not always greener when it comes to sports owners.

The fans want to root for a winner and that hasn’t happened the last two years, or four of the last five years. Fans should demand better from FSG, and that means spending to fill the obvious holes in the roster.

At the same time, I think the extremely vocal and active fans who post on social media about the Red Sox overrate their own relevance. I bet you could barely fill the bleachers at Fenway with all the fans who post regularly about the Red Sox on Twitter—that’s not remotely enough people to sway a multi-billion dollar corporation.

If we’re sitting here in two months and the club hasn’t made material improvements to the team and aren’t at least up against the first CBT line, there is reason to be incredibly mad about the state of the Red Sox and FSG should hear about it. I just don’t think we’re there yet.

There’s so much offseason still left. I believe it’s prudent to leave your pitchforks and (unlit) torches in the closet—at least until March 1.