Three potential landing spots for Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen
Reports indicate the Boston Red Sox may be looking to offload their closer in an effort to shed payroll.
The Boston Red Sox have had a tumultuous offseason thus far in the eyes of their fan base.
While there’s been some cause for excitement, including several pitching acquisitions, there’s a lot of confusion about the direction of the team in 2024.
Recently, reports indicated that closer Kenley Jansen, Boston’s lone All-Star representative from 2023, may not be long for Beantown. Not only have the Red Sox fielded phone calls on the future Hall-of-Famer, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported it’s “increasingly likely” they trade him, though “nothing definitive.”
The 36-year-old is coming off a season that couldn’t have started better. Through his first 12 appearances, he looked vintage — 9-for-10 in save chances with a 0.77 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout-to-walk rate.
After two nightmarish outings in a row following his 400th career save on May 10, he finished the year posting a 3.38 ERA and saving 20 out of 21 chances in his final 37 appearances. Though strikeouts were down and walks slightly up, he still finished the 2023 campaign having had a strong season.
But what’s the market for him? In 2024, he’ll be 36 years old making $16 million and coming off a season with his fewest appearances ever (tied with 2011).
In reality, three teams make a ton of sense.
Miami Marlins
This one seems super obvious.
While the Marlins did get quality contributions out of southpaws A.J. Puk and Tanner Scott, neither amassed more than 15 saves. In fact, at the trade deadline, they added veteran right-hander David Robertson — 14 saves with the Mets — to the mix.
Having a go-to closer might not be as paramount today as it was even five-to-seven years ago, but having one certainly wouldn’t hurt.
With the Red Sox already matching up as a perfect trade partner with Miami on one of its young starters — Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera — a deal with Jansen headed to South Beach makes all the more sense.
Texas Rangers
The reigning World Series champions had only three people earn saves for them on their title quest: left-handers Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman, as well as right-hander José Leclerc.
While Leclerc had his club option picked up, Chapman remains a free agent and Smith signed with the Kansas City Royals.
While the Rangers could be in play for free-agent closer Josh Hader, a trade for Jansen is certainly also a possibility.
From the Red Sox side, this seems the most practical way to shed the entire $16 million Jansen is owed, or at least most of it.
The Rangers emerged in recent years as a cash cow for free agents — inking middle infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, as well as All-Star starting pitcher Jacob deGrom to massive contracts. What’s $16 million more to them if it means replacing the 26 saves they got out of Smith and Chapman combined last year with one arm?
In the event Texas ate the entire 2024 salary, Boston probably gets nothing more than a Florida Complex League or Low-A reliever in return — but that might be worth it in the long run for their 2024 and beyond plans … at least financially speaking.
St. Louis Cardinals
A somewhat outside-the-box trade partner here but given the landscape of the National League Central year-to-year, the Cardinals aren’t exactly far from contending for the crown.
These two teams have already agreed on one trade this winter — Tyler O’Neill to Boston for right-handers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos — but it’s not unheard of for teams to make multiple trades together in a short period.
The lineup for St. Louis is good enough — Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, etc. are all more than quality bats.
Their rotation, although not the most daunting, still features several arms with successful MLB track records: Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas and Kyle Gibson.
The bullpen, however, ranked 23rd in ERA, 18th in FIP, tied for 22nd in saves and 23rd in K-BB%.
Given the Cardinals’ need for another shutdown reliever, one that can move Ryan Helsley back to a set-up role, and Boston’s need to bolster its rotation, might there be something to a Jansen-for-Steven Matz swap? St. Louis gets its closer, albeit a rental closer, effectively paying $3.5 million to shed financial responsibility for Matz in 2025.
While during the previous regime, Boston had an interest in Matz before. The left-hander has struggled to find his footing in the Cardinals rotation since signing a four-year, $44 million contract before 2021. However, last year he saw a similar resurrection of sorts as Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta did after a bullpen banishment.
In his final 15 outings, before a lat injury ended his season in August, Matz had a 2.14 ERA and 2.80 FIP. In his final seven starts, he had a 1.86 ERA and 2.84 FIP.
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