Three mock trades for the Red Sox to bolster their bullpen at the trade deadline
Three mock trades for the Red Sox to bolster their bullpen at the trade deadline
It’s been a tumultuous season for the Red Sox, but with just three games to play until the trade deadline they’ve put themselves in a position for Chaim Bloom to make some win-now moves.
With valuable veterans such as James Paxton and Adam Duvall sure to net solid returns on the trade market, it’s possible the front office will still take a buy/sell approach to the deadline. However, after the team’s red-hot July, it feels unlikely the Red Sox will make any major subtractions. Bloom has hinted that the team may be in the market for a right-handed reliever, so exploring some possibilities the Red Sox could make in that area come makes sense. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported that during an interview Bloomimplied that the team likely wouldn’t go after rentals during the deadline, so let’s mock up some deals for some interesting, controllable relievers who could be a big add in the second half of 2023 and beyond.
Red Sox acquire: Kyle Finnegan
Nationals acquire: Matthew Lugo, Allan Castro, Jose Ramirez
While Finnegan was a bit of a late bloomer when he debuted at the age of 28, he’s been a consistent bullpen arm for the Nationals since 2020. His career ERA sits at a respectable 3.39 over just about 200 innings pitched. The Texas State product has been remarkably durable, spending just 15 days on the injured list over the span of three and a half seasons.
Finnegan has again put up solid numbers in 2023, holding a 3.24 ERA/4.32 FIP over 41.2 innings pitched. He’s posted roughly average walk and strikeout rates this year and has benefited from a steady uptick in fastball velocity, which has jumped from a 95 mph average in 2020 up to 97.2 mph in 2023. Finnegan has concerning batted ball data, as his average exit velocity lands in the first percentile and his HardHit% in the fifth. Dropping his slider may be a good idea, as batters are hitting an absurd .714 against the pitch with a 1.429 SLG. While he’s been closing games for the lowly Nationals, Finnegan will likely never be a back-end reliever on a contending team and projects more as middle relief depth in the Red Sox bullpen. Dave Bush and the Red Sox pitching development team could try and build off his elite fastball and above-average splitter.
In order to determine the returns of each of these mock trades, I’m going to reference similar trades from the last couple of seasons. I find this deal comparable to the recent Pierce Johnson to the Braves trade, where the Rockies acquired Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon in exchange for the 32-year-old reliever. In a move for Finnegan, I see the Red Sox moving on from a couple of fringe top-30 guys who are both Rule 5 eligible in 2023 (although extremely unlikely to be picked) similar to the Braves/Rockies deal. I’m projecting this deal will include a third player unlike the Johnson trade due to Finnegan’s team control through 2026.
Matthew Lugo is the most recognizable name in this deal and was a second-round draft pick in 2019. He’s struggled with the bat in Double-A Portland, but is still only 22 and has proven to be a versatile defender. Castro, aged 20, has just recently been promoted to High-A Greenville where he’s gotten off to a hot start with a 137 wRC+ in his first 8 games. He has an above-average hit tool and is a switch hitter that has played all three outfield positions. Ramirez is 22 and has pitched at Single-A Salem so far this year, posting a 3.36 ERA over 64 innings pitched. He offers a high-risk, high-reward starting pitching option for the Nationals.
This move wouldn’t be flashy, as Finnegan has a fairly low ceiling and would probably be the Red Sox 5th or 6th inning guy when the bullpen is at full health. However, Finnegan has proven to be a consistent, available contributor at the big-league level, and is controlled for six more seasons. The Nationals have nothing to play for, and at age 31 (32 in September) Finnegan doesn’t really fit in their future plans.
Red Sox acquire: Lucas Erceg
Athletics acquire: Stephen Scott, CJ Liu
The A’s began their yearly teardown early this year, as they sent flame-thrower Shintaro Fujinami to the Orioles in exchange for minor league reliever Easton Lucas on July 19th. The 28-year-old rookie Erceg may be the next to go and could be a hot commodity on the trade market as a middle relief arm. His ugly 5.28 ERA is inflated by an absurd .403 BABIP and he holds an elite 2.39 FIP, which will be extremely appealing to any contender looking for relief depth.
While Erceg struggles with control, walking 5.28 batters per nine innings, he has dominant batted ball peripherals. His Baseball Savant page is littered with red circles:
Thanks to his elite fastball velocity and sharp changeup, Erceg has been able to limit hard contact as well as some of the best relievers in baseball. His most used pitch, a sinker, averages nearly 98 mph, and he’s routinely touched triple digits with it in 2023. Erceg has also shown flashes of a plus slider to go along with a cutter and four-seamer, showing the potential of an elite 4-5 pitch arsenal. The former 2nd-round pick has had an incredibly unlucky July, with a 1.21 FIP far lower than the 8.38 ERA. If Erceg can slow the walks down and get a little bit of luck on his side, he has the potential to be a dominant force out of the bullpen.
I find this trade comparable to the John Curtiss/Payton Henry trade between the Brewers and Marlins in 2021. At the time, Curtiss was controllable for four more seasons and had pitched 65 innings between 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.22 ERA. Henry was a 24-year-old backstop who was hitting .297 between Double-A and Triple-A with limited power. Erceg hasn’t been nearly as productive as Curtiss had been at the time, but also holds far better peripherals and expected stats than Curtiss did. I believe the package for Ecreg will be slightly larger than the package for Curtiss also due to the discrepancy between sellers and buyers in today’s market.
Stephen Scott is a 26-year-old catcher with plus power and an impressive stat line in Triple-A Worcester this year. Given the dreadful production of A’s catcher Shea Langaliers, Scott’s 123 wRC+ at the AAA level may be appealing to Billy Beane and Oakland’s front office. Scott is also an adequate defender at first base and the corner outfield positions. Liu is 24 and has pitched in Double-A Portland in tune to a 4.57 ERA. He flashes a solid fastball and decent off-speed pitches and could contribute to a weak A’s pitching staff in the near future.
Unlike Finnegan, Erceg has shown the potential of a back-end relief arm, and once the BABIP straightens out he should start to see better results. With team control through 2029, the A’s might still want to hold onto him and see if they can start to unlock better surface-level numbers. However, Oakland’s seemingly-endless rebuild doesn’t seem anywhere near finished, and they may want to cash out on Erceg as they head toward another miserable finish.
Red Sox acquire: Justin Lawrence
Rockies acquire: Nick Yorke
Of the group of relievers I’ve mentioned, Lawrence has both the highest ceiling and the best results in 2023. The ever-aimless Rockies are headed toward another last-place finish in the NL West and need to replenish their underwhelming farm system. After an unlucky rookie season where his FIP was more than two full points lower than his ERA, Lawrence has put together a stellar 2023 as the Rockies’ set-up man. Despite the extremely hitter-friendly environments of Coors Field (otherwise known as where pitchers’ careers go to end), Lawrence has pitched in tune to a 2.94 ERA/3.19 FIP with a highlight-reel sweeper. While he hasn’t been mentioned in many rumors thus far, he seems like a potential trade candidate given the Rockies’ situation.
Lawrence throws a sinker 50.9% of the time and a sweeper 49.1% of the time, and despite the lack of a true arsenal has been extremely effective with the two-pitch mix. Opposing offenses hit just .120 versus his sweeper, which has an absurd 11-run value. While he sometimes struggles with control, his xBA, xSLG, and Barrel% all fall in the 90th percentile or better. While the Daytona State product is on the older side (He turns 29 in November), he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2029 and has an extremely high ceiling if he can bring the walks down.
The Yankees acquiring Scott Effross from the Cubs in exchange for Hayden Wesenski in 2022 is a near-perfect comparison for this deal. Both Lawrence and Effross are relievers who were having a breakout season at the age of 28, are controlled through 2029, and came from teams falling out of contention. Wesenski and Yorke are both lower-ceiling top-100 prospects coming from strong farm systems in the AL East.
Yorke has bounced back from an injury-plagued 2022 where he posted an 84 wRC+ in High-A Greenville. Despite a recent slump, Yorke has rebounded in Double-A Portland with a 115 wRC+. The former first-rounder has average power but a plus hit tool and ranks 83rd on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect list. Still just 21, Yorke projects as a possible top-of-the-order 2nd baseman who could soon share an infield with Rockies’ top prospects Ezequiel Tovar and Adael Amador.
It may be a tough pill to swallow for some to send over a top-100 prospect for a reliever, but the Red Sox have the farm system to do it. Lawrence has the stuff to be a perennial late-innings option and would be a massive piece as the Red Sox push for a playoff spot. While it’s always important to keep in mind the volatility of relief pitchers in today’s game, this would be a game-changing trade that feels realistic for both sides.
Projecting trade deadline deals can feel like a shot in the dark; Inevitably, most of the moves made were never projected or expected by fans or the media. In an attempt to make this piece more interesting, I tried to pick players who have flown under the radar in trade deadline rumors, and due to their years of control left are not guaranteed to be moved. The Red Sox have been the best team in baseball in the month of July and could be just one missing piece away from a playoff run. You can never really know what to expect from Chaim Bloom and the tight-lipped Red Sox front office, but it’s always fun to try and find some players who just might be targets come the August 1st deadline.
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