The intriguing overhaul of the Red Sox bullpen
On the unprecedented amount of turnover in the Red Sox bullpen in the last calendar year, and why you can expect real improvement in 2023
2022 Recap:
The Red Sox opened the 2022 season with ten relief pitchers on the 26-man roster. They included Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Kutter Crawford, Hansel Robles, Hirokazu Sawamura, Jake Diekman, Austin Davis, Matt Strahm, and Phillips Valdez. When the season came to a close in October, unbelievably, just Barnes, Brasier, and Strahm were still pitching out of the Red Sox bullpen.
Whitlock was shut down on September 20th, Crawford was transitioned into a starting role and didn’t pitch in the majors after the month of August, Diekman was traded at the deadline, and each of Robles, Sawamura, Davis, and Valdez was designated for assignment during the season.
At the end of the season, the Red Sox bullpen included Barnes, Brasier, and Strahm, as well as John Schreiber, Eduard Bazardo, Tyler Danish, Franklin German, Zack Kelly, Kaleb Ort, and we’ll include Tanner Houck who was also shut down by the end. Others like Darwinzon Hernandez, Jeurys Familia, and Michael Feliz made brief appearances in the ‘pen at times in 2022 as well. Josh Taylor was expected to be a bullpen staple but didn’t pitch a single inning.
Of the twenty-one names mentioned above, just five project to be in the Red Sox 2023 Opening Day bullpen. Only one of those five players was on the 2022 Opening Day roster as a reliever; Ryan Brasier. So how did we get to this point, and how should feel about the incredible amount of turnover in the Sox bullpen?
The Off-season:
The Red Sox began their off-season by making it known that Garrett Whitlock would begin the 2023 season as a starting pitcher, and that Tanner Houck may very well follow suit (although many have their doubts about that). They outrighted Tyler Danish off the roster, Eduard Bazardo was designated for assignment early on, and Matt Strahm bolted for a two-year, $15 million deal with the Phillies. It was clear from day one of the off-season began that the bullpen would look pretty different in 2023, but just how different was the question.
The Red Sox kicked off their hectic offseason by signing lefthander Joely Rodriguez to one year deal. Shortly after, they agreed to two-year deals with back-end arms Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen. The club acquired RHP Wyatt Mills in a trade with the Royals, and later traded former All-Star RHP Matt Barnes to the Marlins for LHP Richard Bleier (DFA’ing Franklin German in the process). Josh Taylor was also dealt to the Royals. That was a lot. Breathe.
Things can still change. Pitchers and catchers have just started to trickle into Jetblue Park. But looking at the roster now, you could project the bullpen to appear as follows:
CL: Kenley Jansen
SU: Chris Martin
SU: John Schreiber
SU: Tanner Houck
RH: Ryan Brasier
LH: Joely Rodriguez
LH: Richard Bleier
LONG: James Paxton or Nick Pivetta
AAA depth arms / injury replacements: Zack Kelly, Kaleb Ort, and Wyatt Mills
The 2023 Bullpen:
Seven names listed above didn’t throw an inning out of the Red Sox bullpen in 2022. It’s going to be a different look in 2023, and based on the fact that the Red Sox ranked 26th in all of baseball in bullpen ERA (4.59) and blew the sixth most saves (28) in 2022, this can only be good.
While the Red Sox mixed and matched the “closer” spot last year and blew plenty of saves, they were actually able to discover a couple of late-inning impact arms that should play significant roles in 2023; Tanner Houck and John Schreiber. Adding Chris Martin to that mix of set-up men, while inserting an established All-Star closer in Kenley Jansen into the fold should fortify the back-end. With four lock-it-in back-end arms at Alex Cora’s disposal, the Sox should be able to keep their most important relievers fresh, which is something they’ve struggled to do for the better part of a decade.
Along with a lack of back-end options in 2022, the Red Sox bullpen had a 3.87 BB/9, which ranked 6th worst in the majors. As a result, the front office made it a point to bring in relievers with low walk rates for 2023. Chris Martin had the best BB% in baseball last season, while Richard Bleier ranked in the 94th percentile.
Along with bringing in pure strike-throwers, the Red Sox, as always, will take their shots at bullpen upside. Kaleb Ort has a triple digit fastball that excites members of the front office. His overall 2022 numbers weren’t pretty, but he posted a 3.90 ERA if you remove his meltdown during the team’s 28-5 loss to Toronto in June. He has options and likely won’t start the season in the majors, but the team is intrigued by his upside.
Ryan Brasier posted a 2.25 ERA in the final month of the season (13 appearances) while pitching on a more consistent schedule. Fans may be surprised that he is still around, but the Red Sox clearly believe in Brasier, and will give him a chance, at least to begin the year.
Joely Rodriguez posted elite swing-and-miss metrics, and ranked in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity last year with the Mets. But his 12% walk rate torpedoed his season. If the Red Sox can help Rodriguez find a way to consistently command his pitches, he could provide the team a high-leverage lefty out of the pen, as he was in the second half of 2021 with the Yankees.
Despite his lack of big league success to this point, the Red Sox are intrigued by Wyatt Mills’s delivery. There’s hope that he can follow a path to big league success in a similar fashion to John Schreiber.
Zack Kelly posted a 2.21 ERA in his first twelve appearances of the season, before his last one ballooned his final number to 3.95. The Red Sox liked what they saw from him in his brief big league stint, which followed a successful AAA season where he posted a 2.72 ERA in 49.2 innings.
Overall Outlook:
Unlike Red Sox bullpens in recent seasons, the 2023 bullpen should carry no dead weight. The entire staple of arms can get big leaguers out, and there’s room for injury and error with multiple AAA depth options ready to make an impact when called upon. The team is excited about having a number of relievers with options, which will allow them to maneuver their roster in hopes of keeping as many arms fresh as they can.
There are even some non-roster minor league options that the Red Sox can turn to if things get testy. Guys like Ryan Sherriff, Oddanier Mosqueda, and Dan Altavilla can give you innings if needed (so long as a 40-man spot opens up in the process). Simply put, there’s a margin for error with this bullpen that the Red Sox haven’t had in years.
And that margin for error extends to the back of the bullpen as well. In years past, an injury or over-usage would leave the back of the Red Sox bullpen thin. However, the 2023 bullpen has four setup/closer caliber pitchers to finish off games, allowing the team’s most important arms to stay rested, and also leaving the team insured if one or multiple high-leverage guys goes down. Alex Cora won’t run into any situations like last year when he was forced to throw Tyler Danish in the game for a multi-inning save against Toronto in June.
The Red Sox may not be able to guarantee that a 3-2 7th inning lead becomes a win every time. But they certainly won’t leave you praying for a miracle when a starter exits the game in the 5th inning of a 3-3 ballgame, and you see Jake Diekman trotting in.
Unlike other areas of the roster, you don’t need to pray for several breaks to fall in favor for the bullpen to be a strength. It’ll get the job done more often than not, and has the upside to take it up a notch even from that. They may not be the most flashy and exciting bunch in baseball, but they will provide consistent results.
After what they’ve seen in recent years, Red Sox fans will take that every day of the week.
Follow Gordo on Twitter @BOSSportsGordo.
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The bullpen has definitely been upgraded, but I’m not a fan of Brasier’s. Also, I believe both Houck and Whitlock belong in the bullpen. Having them both there along the off-season additions and subtractions make for a formidable bullpen!
Great stuff, Gordo.