The clock is ticking on Nick Pivetta to accept or decline the $21.05 million QO
The Red Sox are patiently waiting for Nick Pivetta to make a decision on whether or not he’ll accept the $21.05 million qualifying offer. The free agent pitcher has until Tuesday at 4 p.m. to either accept or reject the QO; by rejecting, the Red Sox will earn draft pick compensation.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported earlier this week that Pivetta is expected to decline the QO and sign a multi-year deal with another club. Until then, the Sox could see Pivetta pivot, sign the QO, and return for the ’25 season.
“He almost certainly won’t accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency,” Passan wrote Tuesday. “Teams believe his stuff plays like a frontline starter, and whether it’s the Cubs, Orioles, Braves, or others, Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter.”
If Pivetta signs the $21.05 million QO, he will earn a huge pay raise from last season, where he earned $7.5 million. The QO money would be a massive overpay for someone that posted a 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP last season. He held opponents to a .231 batting average and recorded six wins. While numbers don’t jump off the page, Pivetta had stretches of excellence and was a reliable veteran in a young rotation.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is rolling the dice on this Pivetta decision. The Red Sox can never have enough pitching, but $21.05 million for Pivetta is a poor allocation of payroll when that money could go towards a front-line starter.
Pivetta’s agents clearly have a great pulse on the market to possibly gamble and reject the Red Sox QO on Tuesday afternoon. It was also reported by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi that Pivetta has a strong market despite being tagged with the QO, which can be the kiss of death for some players.
Passan’s ESPN colleague Kiley McDaniel, Pivetta, is predicted to land a three-year, $63 million deal. Many teams across the league would be banking on his upside, as Pivetta is only 31 years old. As the pitching market starts to take shape, Pivetta will be a name to watch as he looks to make the most of free agency.
Teams value their draft picks and gambling in free agency, and forfeiting picks for players can be a risk, especially on Pivetta, who isn’t a superstar or front-line starter. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported on Friday that the compensation teams like the Cubs, Braves, and Astros would forfeit if they signed Pivetta would be steep. Because they were competitive balance tax payers in 2024, they would have to forfeit their second and fifth draft picks to sign him while forfeiting $1 million in international bonus pool money. The Orioles are another team linked to the righty would have to give up their third-highest draft pick after receiving revenue sharing.
If Pivetta accepts the QO and returns to Boston, he would get another season under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey and look to build off this past season, lower his ERA and FIP, and retry his hand in free agency next winter. The one problem with that is Pivetta will be 32 when he’s on the market again, reducing his ability to obtain a payday with a longer term on it.
It’s not truly known what kind of market Pivetta truly has to speculate whether or not he’ll accept or decline the QO. With teams needing pitching all around the league, it’s hard to fathom he’d accept and not take a deal with years, especially the projected three-year, $63 million that McDaniel is predicting.
If Pivetta turns down the QO, it doesn’t mean the door is closed on him to return to Boston. The Red Sox and Pivetta’s camp can still work out a new deal to bring him back to the club. If I were betting on this situation, Breslow is hoping Pivetta turns down the QO offer, the Sox obtain future draft picks from another club, and they upgrade elsewhere in free agency.
