My preference in commenting on any significant player movement concerning the Red Sox is to take it in for a few hours and then comment on the effects and next moves. Such is the case with the announcement of Alex Bregman signing a five-year. $175 million free agent contract with the Cubs.
The irony of the announcement coming on the very day the Sox had their annual fan “Fenway Fest” is not lost on me and should not be lost on you. In many ways it sums up the nature of the MLB free agency system and is a sobering reminder of the business of baseball.
Bregman’s departure from the Red Sox was preordained when the Red Sox signed him to the three-year, $120 million contract last February. The key was the player opt-out clause given to Bregman after year one. In the modern era of baseball contracts that is the ultimate “bet on yourself” golden parachute. If his numbers and play were anything close to career average you had to expect he was going to exercise the opt-out and become a free agent once again.
That reality was set in stone with the fact that his agent is Scott Boras. Both Boras and Bregman knew that there would be teams (Cubs, Sox, Tigers and Phils) that would throw large American dollars at him. They were right! If fans were surprised at this when he declared himself a free agent in November, shame on you!
So, the question is: Was it worth $40 million to have one year of Bregman on your team?
The answer is yes. The Sox entered 2025 hoping to make the postseason. They also knew that the “Big Three” were going to arrive in Fenway at some point during the season. Based on Bregman’s reputation as a student of the game and mentor, they knew they had a player that would set an example with his play on the field, his actions and demeanor off the field, and as it turned out a coach while on the IL. The young core of this team including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, Carlos Narvaez, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and others credited him with his work as mentor, friend and coach. They were taught valuable lessons about how to approach the game and more importantly it came from a peer.
So what else did the Sox get while Bregman wore the uniform?
165 (162 Regular - 3 Postseason) Games and player and unofficial bench coach at a cost of $242,424 per game.
114 Regular Season Games played and 3 Post Season Games played. A 70.37% participation rate for the regular season. (43 games missed with Quad Injury)
A Seasonal Stat line of:
The noise factor……
When Bregman arrived the correct move was to play him at third base over Raffy Devers. Bregman is the far superior defensive player. The decision to move on from Raffy was about Raffy and never about Bregman. You can argue that the Sox were a better team in many ways without Raffy, but that is a discussion we can have at another time.
The decision to sign with the Cubs…..
Bregman will be 32 on March 30th. He was looking for a long term (5-6 year) contract. Any five year commitment would take you into his age 36 season. You can argue that Bregman would continue to play at a level at or close to his career averages for the first two years of any deal with a steady decline beginning in his age 34 season. In other words the last three years of the deal don’t really age well.
(Important Safety Tip: The Sox saw this with the initial deal and thus the original three-year timeframe!)
It was reported that the Sox offered an aggressive offer to Bregman. The numbers surrounding that offer were said to be 5-years $160 Million or $32 Million per year without accounting for any presumed deferred compensation which affects the AAV.
The Cubs signed Bregman for five-years $175 million or $35 million per year. It has roughly a $30-$31 million AAV number for CBT considerations. The Cubs lost out last offseason and decided that they wanted the services of Bregman and were willing to beat the Sox with their offer. For the privilege of receiving his services, Bregman DOES NOT have any opt-out clauses in the contract and will receive a FULL NO-TRADE CLAUSE. In my opinion, the Cubs win with the lack of opt-outs as no-trade clauses in reality can be renegotiated in the players favor if needed.
Give Jed Hoyer kudos for getting that accomplished with Boras.
With Boras as a players agent, the discussion clearly revolves around money. Any contract negotiation with Scott Boras is a PhD level course in risk-reward economics. It is never about a players fit, team culture or any other criterion you chose to place on the obtaining the services of a player represented by him.
Boras played both the Red Sox and Cubs. He got the Red Sox to go five years when they did not want to. He got the Cubs to go $15 million higher than the Sox and reminded them that they could have had his services a year earlier if they had been willing to go above their 4-year $115 million offer they presented last offseason, had they been willing to do so.
Given that dynamic… The Red Sox never stood a chance!
The Cubs got the player….. The Sox got the shaft!…. Bregman gets a long term deal…. Boras cashes in!!!!!
Where do the Red Sox go from here?
The Red Sox still have a lot of things to fix before spring training starts. Here is my list of things to consider in the handling of this even larger headache that is going to take about a truck full of Tylenol to get rid of:
Do not sign Eugenio Suarez. He is not the answer. He can hit for power, but that is about it. He is not a great defensive player and we have already experienced what happens when you have a weak defense at third when Devers manned the hot corner. If the Sox sign him, in my opinion it is a white flag move.
The Sox now have two problems in the infield, second base and now third base.
They could and probably should sign Bo Bichette for second base. If they can’t then they will probably run a platoon of Ceddanne Rafaela, Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard and Mayer.
They need a third baseman. Mayer can handle the job defensively while he gets better hitting MLB pitching. The issue is his durability.
The better solution at third, at least for the next year or two, is to trade for Nolan Arenado. He is a change of scenery candidate. The Cards are in rebuild mode and Bloom has already dealt Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to the Sox.
He will once again need to eat some money as part of any deal and the question will be what Bloom wants from the Sox in return. He has two years remaining on his nine year $275 million deal at $27 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027. He did have an injury hampered season in 2025 and he turns 35 in April. He does have a full no trade clause, but I think that would be a minor issue.
Signing Arenado would mean that Mayer is your insurance policy for both Story and Arenado.
You still need at least 2-3 lefthanded arms in the bullpen.
You could improve behind the plate by signing JT Realmuto as the “1A” catcher, getting great defense and a solid bat.
If you sign Bichette and trade for Arenado, then you have improved your offense and your infield defense should be better.
As I noted in my weekly Coffee Thoughts column this morning, I expect a corresponding move by Breslow within 48 hours. I still feel that way. There are solutions available to the Red Sox. They will undoubtedly need to get “uncomfortable” with respect to thresholds in MLB’s CBT gameshow.
They may also need to part with some additional prospect capital that they were not anticipating they would have to relinquish. The situation is troublesome but not dire! Keep the panic button in your desk drawer and let this whole thing play out!
That’s my plan!
I question the importance of defense, except up the middle, if the player brings great hitting…both OBP and Power. Your thoughts?
Overpay for Hunter Goodman (RH Pwr Bat), Viktor Vodnik, Steh Halvorsen & Riley Kelly. As far as a LHP in the bullpen, I like Justin Wilson over Coloumbe or others. No problem if they want to bring in Arenado or if they do not. I am fine going with the plethora of answers at 2B. Also, I am fine with Shane Drohan, Tyler Samaniego and Jovani Moran as that 2nd LHP in the bullpen. If there's injury or under-performance, there's always someone out there to get once spring training or the regular season starts.