Take a breath, Red Sox Nation...
Despite the Jekyll and Hyde start, it's important to remember the season is less than 10% complete.
Following a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox return home with a record of 5-8.
They’re also in sole possession of last place, two games behind the Baltimore Orioles.
It’s alright to call a spade a spade: the Red Sox have underwhelmed to start the 2023 campaign. After a strong, resilient first series with the Orioles, they’ve often looked lifeless both on the field and in the dugout.
Their performance alone is enough to create that kind of vibe but, given the injuries sustained by center fielder Adam Duvall and right-handed reliever Zack Kelly, it’s likely not the biggest factor.
However, 13 games make up only 8.02% of the regular season. There’s certainly plenty of time for the team to turn it around. We don’t have to look back very far to see how quickly a team can erase a disappointing few weeks.
Last year’s Red Sox were 23-27 through their first 50 games and, entering play on July 1, were 43-33 through 76 games.
Yes, they were 51-52 at the end of July, but that’s beside the point.
So let this be a reminder to breathe. Go outside. Take a walk. Drink water. There’s still plenty of season to be played.
With that in mind, let’s examine what we know about this team through its first 13 games –– both good and bad.
In typical Boston sports fashion, let’s start with the bad.
Position player depth leaves a lot to be desired
Perhaps lost in the shuffle because of the revamped pitching depth is the sheer lack thereof on offense.
While Duvall’s injury would’ve left a hole regardless of the roster, it only took Masataka Yoshida experiencing hamstring soreness for the lineup to feature both Bobby Dalbec, who didn’t make the Opening Day roster, and Yu Chang, who is now hitless in 13 at-bats.
To make matters worse, the Opening Day roster was thin from a right-handed hitter standpoint and the four 40-man minor leaguers closest to the majors –– Wilyer Abreu, Enmanuel Valdez, Jarren Duran and David Hamilton –– are all left-handed.
The closest right-handed bat, outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela, is 4-for-20 with seven strikeouts in five games with Double-A Portland.
Given the severity of the Duvall injury, coupled with Trevor Story’s rehab from elbow surgery, the Red Sox will need to find some thump from the right side of the plate soon.
Could it be adding catcher Jorge Alfaro to the roster? Perhaps, but that will come with needing to designate someone for assignment. While it’s easy to point fingers at the player producing the least, carrying three catchers on the MLB roster seems less than ideal.
Uncertainty in the pitching staff with guys returning
If there was one positive outcome from the Rays series, it’s that right-hander Garrett Whitlock returned to major league action. While his start didn’t go as planned –– five earned runs and three homers allowed in five innings –– it was nice to see him back on the mound.
With his return came the very logical decision to option right-hander Kutter Crawford, who then had to return to the majors as a reliever with the injury to Kelly.
However, everybody else in the rotation is healthy, with right-hander Brayan Bello and southpaw James Paxton set to return in the next couple of weeks (Bello Sunday). While it’s a good problem to have a surplus of pitching, what exactly are the Red Sox going to do when those two return?
Corey Kluber and Chris Sale are locks to stay in the rotation; you’d think the same for Nick Pivetta. Whitlock was stretched out for a reason, while Tanner Houck has been one of only two starters with multiple good starts.
Add Bello and Paxton to the mix and the Red Sox will have seven starters on the MLB roster –– eight if you count Josh Winckowski, nine if you include Crawford (who I presume gets optioned for Bello).
Who draws the short straw?
Pivetta? He’s been their best starter. Houck? He’s been the second-best. Winckowski optioned? He’s been arguably their most valuable reliever. Paxton? They haven’t even approached him about that possibility.
There seems to be no real answer. Again, it’s a nice problem to have from a big-picture perspective. However, it will cause chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran to make a tough decision (or two … or three).
Chang looks overmatched
The 27-year-old manufactured some hype with a Pool A MVP performance in the World Baseball Classic but that production hasn’t translated so far for the Red Sox.
In 14 plate appearances, Chang has zero hits, one walk and six punchouts.
Yes, 14 trips to the plate is an incredibly small sample size. That said, he entered 2023 with just a .639 OPS in 538 career plate appearances.
If my aforementioned train of thought comes to fruition, and the Red Sox decide to add Alfaro to the roster, it seems Chang is the likeliest DFA candidate.
Sale looks rough
It appeared as though Sale figured something out against the Detroit Tigers in his second start of the year. However, the Rays shellacked him to the tune of five earned and seven hits in four innings.
He’s also walked seven and allowed five homers to start the season, both of which are at least noteworthy.
https://twitter.com/JamieGatlin17/status/1646286765840367622
The one saving grace for Sale is he’s racking up the punchouts, as he’s got 19 through his first 12 innings.
It’s certainly not time to sound the alarm on the 34-year-old southpaw, as mechanical tweaks can solve command issues. That said, you couldn’t draw up a worse start to the year for him.
Alright, enough negativity. Let’s get into some of the good things we know about this team.
It’s not always pretty, but the team can scratch across runs
While it’s not as evident with the absence of Duvall, the Red Sox are fourth in the majors in runs scored.
While over a third of the run production and over half the homers belong to Duvall and Rafael Devers, it’s at least encouraging to see the tables getting set for them.
It’s not always pretty, but the Red Sox score north of five runs per game. In fact, they average nearly four runs per game in their losses.
All this without tremendous production out of Justin Turner, Christian Arroyo, Triston Casas and Yoshida, all of whom have the potential to carry the lineup for stretches.
Yoshida’s transition has been pretty solid
Much debate surfaced during the offseason about whether the Japanese phenom could hack it at the MLB level.
While his first 45 plate appearances see him slashing just .216/.356/.324, he’s working counts, not striking out and has showcased some thump the other way.
https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1643034772346662914
He’s also struck out just twice in his past eight games whilst walking seven times.
Yoshida is an on-base machine, which bodes well for him in the long run. While his 73.1% ground ball rate almost certainly needs to, and will, come down, he’s staying productive while adjusting to the states.
For the most part, the relievers they need to be good have delivered
With the exception of Chris Martin during the Rays series, the Red Sox high-leverage relievers –– Martin, John Schreiber and Kenley Jansen –– have been pretty good.
You could even lob Winckowski into the mix because he’s been rock solid as well.
Those four have combined to throw 25 innings in 2023. In the process, they have 22 strikeouts and a 1.44 earned run average.
Jansen especially has come out of the gates throwing darts; the hardest of his Hall of Fame-caliber career, per FanGraphs.
Of the four mentioned relievers, the one that’s left something to be desired is Martin, who has just two strikeouts in his first seven innings with the club. However, he’d combat that issue with a ground ball rate north of 50% before the Rays series.
The reality is, Boston needs to shake off the tough series with Tampa Bay and get back on track during this seven-game homestand.
While a bad April doesn’t necessarily tank the season, it’s probably in the Red Sox' best interest to stack some series wins against teams that’ll be in the same tier as them in the wild card race come August.
Follow Jordan on Twitter @JordanLeandre55
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Nice article Jordan, I love the diversity of content. Any thoughts on Casas? Even with the Primal Scream Walk, he's got only 3 this season, somewhat surprising. What are your expectations for the season?