Start, Bench, Cut -- Boston Red Sox SP trade targets
In recent days, reports suggest three frontline starting pitchers may be moved this winter -- which make sense for the Red Sox?
It’s no mystery that, save for 2021 Nathan Eovaldi, the Boston Red Sox have lacked top-flight starting pitching since 2018 with Chris Sale.
It’s cliché in baseball, but not any less true: Good baseball starts and ends with pitching. The one season Boston had top-flight starting pitching — 2021 — they made it to within two wins of a World Series berth.
Naturally, any time an ace-caliber starter’s name gets mentioned as a potential trade chip, they immediately get linked to the Red Sox.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Sunday three names MLB general managers believe will be available this winter: Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber.
Logistically, each make sense as the Red Sox try to piece their 2024 rotation together. However, none of the three come free of red flags.
For that, let’s play a game of “Start, Bench, Cut: Red Sox trade targets.”
Start: Tampa Bay Rays’ Tyler Glasnow
2023: 3.53 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 33.4% strikeout rate in career-high 120 IP
This opinion already got met with criticism on X, but I’d prefer Glasnow in a perfect world over the other two starters in a trade acquisition.
Yes, I’m aware he’s the oldest. Yes, I’m also aware he’s got the most damning injury history of the three. No, I do not care.
From a sheer talent perspective, Glasnow is the best starter between these three — and has been since 2021.
Over that span, albeit through a considerably smaller sample size, Glasnow has a 3.10 ERA, a 26.9% strikeout-to-walk rate and a 3.00 SIERA. He does allow hard contact at a higher rate than Burnes and Bieber, and allows homers at a greater rate as well, but the average launch angle against him is almost a full degree lower, which reflects in his 48.5% ground ball rate.
My biggest drawback on a Glasnow trade is the fact it would be an inter-division trade.
The Red Sox, anchored by rookie top executive Craig Breslow, would have to overpay to convince the Rays’ Erik Neander that trading the 30-year-old to a division rival is smart. On the flip side, Breslow would have to keep in mind that the prospect haul may end up facing the Red Sox down the road, whether they keep the righty beyond 2024 or not.
There’s a ton of risk to trading for Glasnow, but he’s the best bang-for-your-buck starter of these three, in my opinion.
Bench: Milwaukee Brewers’ Corbin Burnes
2023: 3.39 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 25.5% strikeout rate in 193.2 IP
Floor-wise, Burnes is the easiest trade to justify if you’re Breslow and co.
The reason he falls to the “Bench” distinction is for his ceiling. While he won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021, he’s gotten worse each season since, culminating in his worst season as a starting pitcher in 2023.
While his worst season still placed him 14th in baseball with his 3.39 ERA, some warning signs arose from the 29-year-old.
For instance, his strikeout numbers dipped from 35.6% in 2021 to 30.5% in 2022 to 25.5% in 2023. His walk numbers, though not as steep, also declined year-to-year from 5.2% to 6.4% to 8.4% this year.
That said, he’s still great at limiting hard contact and still an above-average ground ball inducer.
Burnes is the likelier acquisition between him and Glasnow, but one thing the Red Sox need, perhaps even more than innings, is whiffs. Glasnow was in the 95th percentile for whiff rate (97th percentile in strikeout rate) while Burnes was in the 69th percentile for whiffs (65th for strikeouts).
Cut: Cleveland Guardians’ Shane Bieber
2023: 3.80 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 20.1% strikeout rate in 128 IP
This isn’t a case of the “odd-man-out” with Bieber; I believe trading for him would be a mistake for the Red Sox.
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a very good starting pitcher. However, “pretty good” isn’t good enough to move the needle for me.
Now, should the Red Sox sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, trading for Bieber and making him the No. 3 or No. 4 makes sense. However, trading for him and marketing him as the team’s ace would be a mistake.
Let me pivot back to what I said before about him being a very good pitcher. There’s no denying he’s a good arm when healthy — this season he spent two months on the IL with elbow inflammation — but he hasn’t been Cy Young caliber in both strikeouts and run prevention since 2021.
I’m not accusing him of being a “tack merchant,” I’m more using that as a point of reference.
While he’s the youngest arm here, and a rebound in stuff is always possible given his age, I’m fearful of trading for an arm coming off an injury to the pitching elbow — especially one in which he missed two months without having it surgically repaired.
Follow Jordan on X @JordanLeandre55
For additional Red Sox and Major League Baseball content, follow Beyond the Monster: Boston Red Sox on X BeyondtheMnstr
