Solving the Red Sox' Rob Refsnyder problem
Leading the team in on-base percentage this season, outfielder Rob Refsnyder continues to struggle for consistent playing time.
If you had outfielder Rob Refsnyder being a top two-hitter on the Boston Red Sox on your 2023 bingo card, you are looking pretty good.
For better or for worse, that’s reality.
In 39 games, across 111 plate appearances, the 32-year-old is slashing .281/.423/.371 with a .383 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and a 130 wRC+.
While he’s hitting just .147 against right-handers this season, he’s doing so with a .341 OBP and .334 xwOBA, the latter being 18 points above the league average for righty-righty matchups.
Since arriving in Boston last season, he’s got a 108 wRC+ against righties with a .358 OBP.
Among Red Sox with at least 50 plate appearances this season, Refsnyder is first in xwOBA and OBP, fourth in average, second in wRC+ and tied for fifth in fWAR. He’s also ninth in the majors in walk rate (minimum of 100 plate appearances).
However, despite his success, he’s ninth on the team in plate appearances, logging only 12 more than backup catcher Reese McGuire –– 10 more than platoon second baseman Enmanuel Valdez.
With center fielder Adam Duvall set to return to the team in New York, and Jarren Duran’s roster spot appearing safe for now, it seems playing time could become even more scarce for the former Arizona Wildcat.
That said, if Boston wants to get out of its monthlong slump as a bottom-10 offense in the league, Refsnyder should find himself in the lineup much more frequently. The problem, however, is finding out where to use him.
Here are the obstacles standing in front of him:
Duvall will almost certainly cover center field moving forward.
Justin Turner is clogging up the designated hitter position
Masataka Yoshida has to stay in left field because of this.
Alex Verdugo is playing elite two-way baseball in right field.
Now, how can the Red Sox get creative and get the recently extended Refsnyder into the lineup?
Back to the infield?
Historically, Refsnyder has experience at second and first base at the major-league level. However, the last time he played second was in 2017, and the last time he played first was in 2020. On top of that, he struggled at both positions so, given the already glaring struggles Boston’s had with infield defense this season, it makes sense not to experiment.
That said, if they wanted to try him on the right side of the infield, the Red Sox could keep 38-year-old Turner in his designated hitter role when rookie first baseman Triston Casas needs a day off.
It wouldn’t be the first time a team –– or the Red Sox for that matter –– has sacrificed defense to generate more offense.
The Red Sox could also do the same with the aforementioned Duvall, who played some first base with the Cincinnati Reds –– however, not since 2018 –– thus allowing Refsnyder to play center field.
A small sell before the trade deadline talks ramp up
With the Red Sox sitting at 31-32 and in last place in a stacked American League East, there’s no time like the present to get creative with the roster.
As previously mentioned, there are several obstacles standing in the way of more playing time for Refsnyder. The best way to clear an obstacle out of the way would be to trade one of them.
Obviously, Yoshida and Verdugo are safe. The former is one of the best hitters in the league –– best on the team –– and the latter passed every offseason test given to him en route to a career year to date.
That leaves two candidates: Duvall and Turner.
As everybody saw for an eight-game stretch, Duvall is more than capable of carrying the offense for stretches. In his 37 plate appearances, he’s slashed .455/.514/1.030 with four homers and 14 runs batted in.
While Turner has provided stability at DH this season, and rocks a solid .355 xwOBA, he’s slugging just over .400 with a 103 wRC+. His .337 OBP is also his lowest since 2013, which was before he broke out with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Trading Turner may be the best way for Boston to free up playing time for one of their steadiest and toughest at-bats in Refsnyder without pulling the plug on the 2023 season.
Moreover, the worst-case scenario is the team reverts to making Refsnyder and Duran a true platoon in left field.
There’s really no downside to getting creative at this point. Since the Red Sox went on an eight-game winning streak from late April into May, they’re 10-18, including three straight series lost to the Reds, Rays and Guardians.
In those 28 games, they’re tied for 20th in team wRC+, 19th in OBP, 22nd in slugging percentage and tied for last in home runs.
Changes are needed, and fast, if Boston wants to climb back into postseason contention. It starts by freeing up playing time for one of your best hitters this season.