Should the Red Sox target Shane Bieber at the trade deadline?

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After a long stretch of effective work, the Red Sox starting pitching has taken another hit.

With Chris Sale heading to the IL due to left shoulder soreness, the Red Sox starting pitching depth will again be tested. Kutter Crawford will step into the rotation, but his results as a starting pitcher have been sub-par at best. Nick Pivetta or Corey Kluber seem like other viable short-term options, but neither has produced productive results in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN recently reported that three GMs expected Guardians ace Shane Bieber to be moved by the trade deadline, and the Red Sox seem like a viable option to make a deal for the former Cy Young award winner. Given the team’s offensive depth in the farm system and the Guardians’ desperate need for elite bats, the two teams seem like potential partners.

But does acquiring Bieber justify trading the package it would require?

Bieber’s been an effective arm for Cleveland since his rookie year in 2018, and holds a career 3.23 ERA and 3.11 FIP. His best season came in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, where he threw 77.1 innings of 1.63 ERA ball. Bieber unanimously won the Cy Young award and put up an absurd 3.2 WAR in just 12 games. He bounced back from a right shoulder injury in 2021 to post exactly 200 innings with an ERA under three last year.

It’s been a bit of an odd start to Bieber’s 2023 campaign, as he holds a decent 3.72 ERA/4.14 FIP but has frighteningly bad advanced numbers. His K/9 has taken a nosedive since the 14.2 K/9 he posted in 2020, and sits at a dreadful 6.36 as of his last start. His Avg. EV, HardHit%, and xBA all land in the eighth percentile, with other peripherals not looking much better. His average fastball velocity is down to just about 91 MPH, and his once devastating secondary pitches have declined in productivity.

These numbers should come as a massive concern to any GM looking to make a big-time trade to acquire the 28-year-old righty. If Chaim Bloom believes Dave Bush and the Red Sox pitching development can help Bieber work through his drop in velocity, then it might be worth a shot if the package is right. But there are surely some alarming numbers that may be pointing to a decline from the Guardian’s ace.

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