Shane Drohan's Hot Start in Portland: What Could His Future Hold?
The lefty starter is cruising in Double-A. What's his realistic trajectory within the Red Sox organization?
The Boston Red Sox minor league system has some big names, including the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela. But one name has been dominating the discussion amongst observers since spring training: left-handed starting pitcher Shane Drohan.
Drohan, 24, was Boston’s 5th-round pick out of Florida State in the pandemic-shortened 2020 MLB Draft, and he put up solid numbers in his first two full seasons in the Sox system.
Yet the buzz about Drohan’s improvements for 2023 started building in Fort Myers and hasn’t stopped. Those who saw him in spring training, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, noted an increase in his four-seamer velocity (up from 91 mph in 2022 to 94-95 mph in spring 2023) as well as the introduction of a new cutter to his repertoire to go with his four-seamer, changeup and slider.
Drohan told Christopher Smith of MassLive.com that he added 14 pounds to his frame this offseason thanks to, among other things, eating a lot of steak. It seems all that beef paid off.
In four starts for Double-A Portland, Drohan has excelled, throwing 23 total innings and allowing just 2 ERs for a microscopic 0.78 ERA. He has 26 Ks vs. just 4 BBs and 13 Hs allowed.
On Wednesday, he overcame a rocky first inning against the Erie SeaWolves to go 6 strong innings, allowing 1 ER, 2 Hs and 1 BB while fanning seven.
Drohan has shown advanced command of all his pitches and maintained that velo bump in game action. When asked by Chad Jennings of the Athletic about Drohan earlier this week, Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham said:
“…this offseason adding the cutter was a big piece. Last year, adding his changeup, and using it against both lefties and righties was a big addition. That allowed him to get both sides out more consistently. Then, obviously the adding of the weight. It’s paid dividends over the years. … And also, just the person he’s become as a young man, as a young baseball player. He’s matured. Really, he’s just in a good spot confidence-wise.”
The Red Sox system is notably thin on high-level starting pitching prospects. Thus, the level of success Drohan is experiencing at the more-advanced Double-A level raises inevitable questions about his organizational trajectory.
There are caveats to the discussion about how quickly or slowly any player should be moved through the ranks. Not every player develops the same way.
The player’s age could factor into the decision. How much professional experience do they have? What was the level of competition they faced as amateurs? Do they have the right maturity/makeup/work ethic to handle a promotion?
With all those caveats in mind, what does history tell us about when Drohan could be moved up from Portland to Worcester?
After Wednesday's start, Drohan has logged 47 total innings in Double-A between 2022 and 2023. Let’s then look at three starting pitchers who were promoted from Portland to Worcester in 2022 as recent data points for this discussion.
First, there's fellow LHP Brandon Walter. After spending 2021 in Salem and Greenville, Walter opened 2022 in Portland and dominated the Eastern League, raking up 68 strikeouts vs. just 3 BBs with a 2.88 ERA in 50 innings. That performance earned him a callup to Worcester as May turned into June. Walter was 25 during his stint in Portland.
Next, let's look at another LHP, Chris Murphy. Murphy spent significantly more time in Portland than Walter, finishing 2021 there with 33 innings, followed by 76.2 innings to start 2022 for 109.2 total. He amassed a 3.44 ERA with 138 Ks and 44 BBs for the Sea Dogs. He was 23 at the time of his arrival in Portland and turned 24 about a month before he was promoted to Worcester.
Lastly, there's the case of RHP Brayan Bello. He arrived in Portland in mid-2021 and was just OK in 63.2 IP that season. 2022 was a different story for Bello as he started the year on fire back at AA, allowing just 7 ERs in 37.1 innings before earning the call to Worcester. In all, Bello threw 100.1 innings with a 3.59 ERA, 135 Ks and 36 BBs. he arrived in Portland at 22 and left after turning 23.
Given similarities in age and experience, Drohan could follow a similar development path to Bello and Murphy. That would mean Drohan might get a shot at Worcester in the June timeframe—if he continues to perform well.
Another reason why Drohan could get additional seasoning in Portland compared to someone like Walter: Sox brass may want him to face the same Eastern League hitters in multiple games before considering a promotion.
No matter what, Drohan’s stock is on the rise regardless of where he’s pitching. For a Red Sox system in need of potential impact starters, it’s an exciting time to get on board the Shane Drohan train.
If you’re interested in more on the Red Sox minor league system, I’m joined each week on The Pesky Report by Derrik Maguire and Hunter Noll to talk all things Red Sox prospects. Listen and subscribe to The Pesky Report here.
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