Sabermetrics notes: Alex Verdugo's altered approach, Garrett Whitlock's evolving changeup
Alex Verdugo hasn’t struck out much over the past three seasons.
Since his punching out at a rate of 20.4% in 2020, he lowered that to 15.4% in 2021 and it’s been at a steady 13.4% in both 2022 and 2023.
But, strikeout rate isn’t always the most telling stat, especially in Verdugo’s case. One might notice the exact same strikeout rate in ‘22 and ‘23 and think not much has changed.
However, Verdugo has undergone major changes at the plate this season, as the left-handed bat has been much more selective at the plate.
Also, note that the red vs. green year-to-year numbers aren’t a comparison of better to worse — it’s simply contrasting the two. One might find more success with his 2022 plate discipline numbers and being more aggressive, though not in Verdugo’s case.
The 27-year-old’s approach shifts though have taken him from an average 103-wRC+ hitter to an All-Star caliber 121 wRC+ this season, and his changes have also led to a career-high .367 xwOBA.
That’s on top of his highest ISO since 2019 at .171 — compare it to last year’s mark of just .125, which, in a stat like isolated power, ethat’s a major difference.
Something that’s also been a substantial improvement: Verdugo against offspeed pitches. His xwOBA went from .255 to .317 against offspeed pitches and he’s whiffing just 8.5% of the time against them; he was whiffing at a rate of 19.2% against offspeed pitches last year.
His 121 wRC+ is the highest it’s been since his 125-wRC+ 2020 — and it’s important to note he massively outperformed his xwOBA that year, with his wOBA being .366 compared to his .299 xwOBA.
Now, what else has changed for Verdugo?
Well, he also finds himself playing the best defense of his career.
Verdugo had eight assists last year across 1,306 innings in the outfield. In just 395 innings this year, he already has three, which has contributed to 4 DRS (defensive runs saved and 3 OAA (outs above average) — giving him the best mark in both statistics across all right fielders in baseball.
Compare that to last year, where he put up a -5 DRS and a -5 OAA. This year is putting him on pace for his best defensive season since his 12-DRS 2019 season in only 756 outfield innings with the Dodgers — and even then he only had 3 OAA.
Verdugo is a nice contributor to Boston’s well-below-average defense (-13 DRS/-6 OAA) this season — ranking 25th in DRS and 22nd in OAA.
His changes with both the glove and bat have helped him already surpass his 2022 fWAR of 1.2. He currently sits at 1.5, as he nears the mark of 1.9 — a clip shared by both 2020 and 2021.
Whitlock’s evolving changeup
Garrett Whitlock’s changeup is not what it used to be.
It’s bounced around between a .150 and .300 xwOBA off of it throughout different months in his career, and it’s bounced around between different velocities, spin rate, and vertical movement without gravity (induced vertical break / IVB). But, there is a gradual trend of different numbers increasing throughout his career.
And, while his velocity is at least back to where it was in the main parts of 2022, it’s still not what it used to be when he was a much greater threat overall in the 2021 season.
One of two substantial evolvements has been the velocity; he hasn’t thrown it in the 83-mph average range — where he spent all of 2021 — since the first month of 2022. His spin rate has also gradually increased from the high 1800s of RPM in early 2021 to the 2000s and 2100s.
The other major evolvement is his over three-inch gain in IVB this season compared to last, and the over seven-inch IVB difference from April 2021 to May of 2023.
Another thing that’s noticeable is the major struggle behind the changeup when Whitlock got hurt in late 2022 — it reached major highs in velocity and he struggled mightily when he labored through the final two months of his season.
And, this season, his changeup is getting crushed — it has a .413 xwOBA on it compared to 2021 and 2022, where he was in the low-to-mid .200s.
And, the Red Sox are aware of these changes. As Red Sox Stats notes in a recent tweet, both Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora have recently said they are trying to get Whitlock’s changeup back to what it used to be.
So, here’s everything just mentioned in a visual format. Notice how you’ll find more dark (a lower number of a stat) at the top of the chart below and it gets gradually lighter towards the bottom of the chart — which, is sort of the point of it.
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