RHP Luis Guerrero making case for high leverage role early in camp

Fast-becoming a fan-favorite, Luis Guerrero has dazzled in his first two spring outings of 2025.

Photo Courtesy of Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Helium surrounded 24-year-old right-hander Luis Guerrero for a few seasons now, especially after flashing a triple-digits fastball in the Futures Game of 2023.

After a taste of Major League Baseball at the tail-end of 2024, expectations surrounding the flamethrower reached a fever pitch entering the offseason.

However, with the addition of Aroldis Chapman and anticipated returns of Garrett Whitlock and Liam Hendriks, attention began to dissipate. Perhaps to his benefit, the 2021 17th-round pick entered camp as a bit of a wild card that could in some ways make or break the narrative surrounding the bullpen entering the season.

In two outings, he’s dazzled, going two scoreless innings, walking one, allowing one hit and striking out five.

He’s had this success against some established MLB talent such as Brandon Lowe, Eloy Jimenez and Austin Riley, who make up three of his five punchouts.

For as talented as Boston’s bullpen is, it has a smattering of question marks on even its surest relievers. Chapman is 37 on Friday and has a reputation as a “heart attack reliever.” Hendriks turned 36 two weeks ago and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2022, albeit an All-Star campaign. Whitlock was elite in the bullpen in 2021, but that was also his last fully healthy season.

That leaves Justin Slaten, who certainly has the talent and the moxie to be a long-time high leverage arm, but until he’s done it for more than a season, who knows if he actually can.

Even if it’s not on Day 1, Guerrero flashing as he has through 12 innings between MLB last year and camp this year does a lot for his candidacy for those innings in 2025.

The right-hander’s command at times troubled him in the minor leagues. While his ERA remained down for the most part, he found himself deep in a lot of counts that spiked his pitch count whether he was walking hitters or not.

That appears to be his last step toward unlocking his true potential. Walking guys isn’t a fatal flaw for a reliever — Chapman has 4.7 walks per nine innings for his career — but keeping his pitch count down can make him available more frequently and potentially for more than three outs.

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So far, he’s averaging roughly four pitches per batter in camp through two outings, a tick up from his 3.96 pitches per batter in MLB last year. That number is imperative for him going forward, in addition to staying within the zone and manipulating contact.

There’s no such thing as too much pitching, especially in the bullpen. It feels like the top contenders are at least in the market for another high leverage arm every season. For the Red Sox, if Guerrero can continue to nudge himself into the conversation, they could have five high leverage relievers when they head to Texas.