Rehashing the Garrett Whitlock Conversation
Garrett Whitlock is going to start in 2023, and that is pretty damn exciting
The most polarizing conversation amongst Red Sox fans today might just be the Garrett Whitlock debate. Everyone recognizes Whitlock’s talent. But is he best utilized as a starting pitcher or a reliever? After posting an elite rookie season out of the bullpen just one year removed from Tommy John Surgery, followed by a solid sophomore season that was hampered by injuries and role inconsistency, Garrett Whitlock looks to enter camp fully healthy with a pristine opportunity to earn a spot in the Red Sox starting rotation.
Through two seasons, Whitlock has proven to be elite out of the pen, posting a 1.96 ERA in his rookie season followed by a 2.75 ERA when pitching as a reliever in 2022, a number that could have been even more impressive had he not pitched through a hip injury much of the season.
The Red Sox have kept Whitlock in the bullpen due to necessity, but they’ve always viewed him as a starter. He started games throughout his minor league career in the Yankees system, and his four pitch mix that includes a sinker, changeup, slider, and the occasional four-seam fastball is consistent with that of a starting pitcher. He has a unique ability to consistently throw all four of his pitches for strikes while generating swing-and-miss at a well above-average rate.
When the Red Sox got their feet wet and let Whitlock start nine games beginning at the end of April, things looked promising. At first, they let him throw four innings, in which he held the Rays scoreless and fanned seven. Then he threw three innings (one unearned run) in Toronto before stretching out to five against the Angels. He struck out nine men that night and allowed just two runs, both coming on a 5th-inning two-run homer by Angels catcher Max Stassi.
While things initially looked great, it was more of a mixed bag from that point on. It was clear that Whitlock was pitching through a hip injury he suffered closing out a 2-1 victory on April 19th against the Blue Jays. His walk rate uncharacteristically crept up, his strikeout rate sank, and you could see him limp around the mound frequently. The Sox eventually pulled the plug and placed Whitlock on the IL after his ninth start on June 7th. Despite his injury, Whitlock held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six of his nine starts. Overall, he posted a 4.15 ERA as a starter in 39 innings.
When Whitlock returned in mid-July as a reliever, he was back to his dominant self before the injury resurfaced a month or so later. He posted a 7.20 ERA in four September relief appearances before the Red Sox shut him down and sent him in for surgery to correct the injury.
Though he prepared for the season as a starting pitcher in Spring Training, Whitlock never got fully stretched out in 2022. He never once topped 84 pitches in a start. To act like we know what he will be based on nine Major League starts in which he wasn’t fully stretched out or healthy would be foolish.
The truth is that nobody knows whether or not Garrett Whitlock will successfully transition into a frontline Major League starter. But the signs certainly point to him succeeding, and the Red Sox have placed their bet, agreeing to a contract extension with Whitlock at the start of the 2022 season that bought out all of his arbitration years while adding two team options to the back end of the deal. Those options are worth $8.25 Million and $10.5 Million respectively.
The Red Sox signed Whitlock to his extension at the start of just his second year in the majors, something Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom has repeatedly said he wants the Red Sox to get into the habit of doing. Extensions signed early in players’ careers present opportunities for teams to net serious value on the back end of deals if players meet their potential. Based on the way the Red Sox and Whitlock structured the deal, the Sox maximize value if Whitlock not only continues to succeed but succeeds as a starting pitcher.
$8.25 Million and $10.5 Million per year for an elite reliever presents value. But $8.25 Million and $10.5 Million per year for a frontline starting pitcher presents massive value. That was the goal the Red Sox had in mind, and it’s still their vision. At the GM Meetings in November, Red Sox GM Brian O’Halloran called Whitlock’s role as a starter “clear and definitive.” That sentiment has not changed in the months following, and the Red Sox continue to make it known that a spot in the starting rotation is Whitlock’s to lose.
And what better year to give it a shot? Unlike the previous two years, the Red Sox have legitimate bullpen weapons in Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, John Schreiber, and possibly Tanner Houck. Removing Whitlock from that equation won’t leave the team short on high-leverage bullpen arms like it did in 2022.
Of course, throwing Whitlock (or any pitcher with limited starting experience) into the rotation presents some risk. But this Red Sox team has uncertainty and upside all across the board. Whether it be due to injury concerns, inexperience, or age, the Red Sox are taking uncertain shots with players like Brayan Bello, Masataka Yoshida, Chris Sale, Triston Casas, Justin Turner, Adam Duvall, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Adalberto Mondesi, and arguments could be made for others. Whitlock is an unproven commodity as a starting pitcher, but in a year where the Red Sox are not certain contenders, there’s no better year than 2023 for them to see what they have in Garrett Whitlock, the starting pitcher. If he develops into a mid-rotation starter or better, the ceiling of the 2023 Red Sox raises dramatically.
We've seen Garrett Whitlock dominate as a high-leverage reliever. We've seen him dominate in extended innings, both as a long reliever and as a starter. The Red Sox owe it to Whitlock and to themselves to see if he can consistently tap into that magic he briefly showcased as a starter in 2022. Boston hasn’t developed two young rotation anchors since the days of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. But if Garrett Whitlock is everything the Red Sox think he is, the pair of Whitlock and Brayan Bello has the potential to be just that, and maybe more. That vision alone should be enough to get you excited about Garrett Whitlock, the starting pitcher.
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Good analysis. The easy take is Whitlock should start until he shows he can’t