Red Sox trade targets: left-handed relievers
Though the bullpen is improved from years past, the Boston Red Sox could serve to benefit from adding another southpaw to the mix in the coming weeks.
After a few seasons of lackluster relief pitching, the Boston Red Sox bullpen has catapulted into the middle of the pack in 2023.
However, this is largely due to the success of its right-handers: Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber (before getting hurt), Kutter Crawford, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen. From the southpaw side, it’s been the same song and dance as spectators have grown accustomed to seeing from the Red Sox staff.
While 31-year-old career minor-leaguer Brennan Bernardino impressed early, particularly against lefty bats (.130 opponent average against lefties), he came back down to earth his last five outings –– allowing at least one run in four of them.
Because of the Spring Training injury to Joely Rodriguez, who’s made just two appearances since his activation, the crux of the work done by Sox southpaw relievers has gone to Richard Bleier. The 36-year-old, acquired from the Miami Marlins for right-hander Matt Barnes, has largely disappointed in his brief tenure in Boston.
Across 19 outings, he has a 5.85 ERA and is posting career worsts in homers per nine innings, fWAR, ground ball rate, homers per fly ball rate and left on base percentage.
He appeared to have turned a corner after his meltdown against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 13, posting a 2.61 ERA in his next 10 outings. However, it ballooned back up to 6.75 in his past five before going on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation.
As a unit, Sox lefty relievers are 19th in baseball with a 4.46 ERA and 27th with a .451 opponent slugging percentage. While Rodriguez’s return should alleviate some of that, especially from a slugging standpoint, it’s safe to say Boston could benefit from adding another lefty reliever to the mix.
But who?
The trade deadline is over two months away and it’s hard to distinguish who some of the definitive sellers are. However, it’s not too early to start keeping our eyes peeled on some players around the league.
Alex Young - Cincinnati Reds
Young doesn’t have overpowering stuff but doesn’t walk anybody and is as rock solid as they come.
His out pitch is his changeup, which opponents are hitting .135 against with a 53.3 whiff rate. His curveball, though his third-most used pitch, is his second-best pitch as it holds batters to a sub-.100 expected batting average with a whiff rate of 40.6%.
He’s hit a bump in the road this month, posting an ERA over seven. However, he’s got a 25.6 K-BB% overall to couple with a 2.66 SIERA.
His ground ball rate is down to 45.5% after posting a 54.2 GB% in 2022, but that’s still more than respectable for a guy averaging north of five-and-a-half strikeouts per walk.
The 29-year-old has three years of control after this one, so he’d be around beyond the contracts of Bleier and Rodriguez.
Given the volatility of relievers, it’s hard to imagine a 29-year-old one generating a massive prospect haul. This is a package where you could see Boston shedding a bubble player like infielder Bobby Dalbec.
Brent Suter - Colorado Rockies
Suter is another lefty that doesn’t throw hard. However, he’s an artist when it comes to managing contact.
He’s in the 99th percentile in expected slugging, barrel rate and average exit velocity while also in the 100th percentile for hard-hit rate.
His 0.94 ERA ranks sixth among lefty relievers this year –– minimum of 10 innings –– and his .212 opponent slugging percentage ranks fourth.
While the elite production may not be customary for Suter, he’s been a solid reliever for a long time. Between 2019 and 2022, he had a 2.83 ERA with a ground ball rate of 48.6% as a reliever. Among 83 lefty relievers with at least 100 innings pitched in that span, he was in the top 30 for both.
His sinker and changeup are lethal, and used for different purposes. His sinker has just a 14.3 whiff rate, but batters hit just .156 against it. His changeup, which has a 49.0 whiff rate, holds an opponent batting average of .103 with a .138 slugging percentage.
Unlike Young, Suter is a rental. However, he also wouldn’t command much in a trade for that reason.
Aroldis Chapman - Kansas City Royals
The elite Chapman is back after a couple of lackluster seasons to end his career with the New York Yankees.
What makes Chapman so enticing as a trade target, besides the resurrected juice on his fastball, is the fact the Royals haven’t even used him as a closer.
For years, the Red Sox had a problem with closer Craig Kimbrel and his inability to be lockdown in non-save situations; that problem doesn’t exist with Chapman. In his 19 outings this season, he has one save, a 3.06 ERA, a 1.87 FIP and a 39.2 strikeout rate.
Acquiring Chapman would give the Red Sox a two-headed monster at the back end with Jansen, which makes the idea of trading for the rejuvenated southpaw intriguing.
He’d be the most expensive snag in July, as most teams looking for a lefty reliever will certainly inquire. However, Boston has the sort of flexibility in the farm system to pony up a little extra to snag a premier setup man if they think the team is worth that kind of investment.
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