Red Sox offseason debate: Alex Bregman or Willy Adames?

Presenting the case for both star infielders before issuing a verdict on who makes more sense for the Boston Red Sox this winter.

Despite the Boston Red Sox hovering around a top 10 offense in baseball this season, several flaws became fatal in what became a disappointing September for baseball in Beantown.

Photo Courtesy of Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

There are a few issues presenting itself with regards to alleviating these flaws. For starters, most of the starting lineup is under control for 2025. Second, those who aren’t under control — Tyler O’Neill and Danny Jansen — are among the only right-handed hitters in a lefty-heavy organization. Third, the top replacement candidates in-house for O’Neill and Jansen are Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel … both left-handed bats.

With all of that in mind, one can imagine Boston looks to improve the consistency of its lineup via external additions.

Among the many righty bats on the market, there are two infielders: Willy Adames and Alex Bregman.

The former, a 29-year-old shortstop posting a career year in what could be his final one in Milwaukee. The latter, a 30-year-old third baseman with a decorated career in Houston having his worst season since he was a 22-year-old rookie.

Both are intriguing in their own right, though each play a position held by players with All-Star pedigree. Which would make the most sense?

Let’s make the case for each, before settling on a verdict, shall we?

The Case of Willy Adames

For a team in need of right-handed power and improved defense up the middle, Adames checks both boxes, at least historically speaking.

As previously mentioned, the shortstop is having a career, which is mostly true. He’s played a career-high 155 games while also posting career-highs in homers (32), RBI (110), stolen bases (19) and fWAR (4.7). The catch 22 is he’s posting a career-worst -14 defensive runs saved with one out above average, his fewest since 2021.

If you’re of the “what have you done for me lately?” mindset, you’re likely awed by his offensive prowess but concerned with the steep defensive decline seemingly overnight, and before he turns 30.

If you’re a track-record-above-all-else believer, you can anticipate some slight reduction in offense with a fairly dramatic improvement defensively.

Sure, he plays shortstop, a position actively manned by multi-time All-Star Trevor Story. However, even if not apparent, that 19th percentile arm strength is at least alarming enough to wonder if a switch to second base is in Story’s future. On the flip side, Adames has 75th percentile arm strength.

Creating a middle infield of Story and Adames instantly gives Boston one of the best defensive units up the middle in the league, especially adding Ceddanne Rafaela’s defensive prowess in center field.

Photo Courtesy of John Fisher/Getty Images

And while Boston has Vaughn Grissom already, with top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell in Triple-A, Adames is much more a sure thing than those three, plus allows the Red Sox to explore bigger trade packages to improve other areas of the roster.

In addition to the defensive upgrade, Adames’ quality of contact is great. He’s in the 82nd percentile for barrel rate and 84th percentile expected slugging.

It’s not all sunshine and roses, however. As the team’s biggest flaw offensively this year was striking out. Adames has made strides in recent years to get his strikeout rate down to 25.8%, but he’s still in the 25th percentile this year and higher than Boston’s team rate of 25.4%.

He’s also 19th percentile in whiff rate, while Boston has whiffed more than every team in the league this year save for the Colorado Rockies.

There’s a lot to like about the shortstop, but he’s an imperfect player. When adding a player to a deal worth $25-plus million, it’s important to examine the pros and cons thoroughly, especially with long-term deals.

The Case of Alex Bregman

Few players in baseball whiff and strike out less than All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman. While he’s walked far less in 2024, he’s still at a sub-15% strikeout rate for the seventh year in a row.

While Boston has its resident low-whiff, low-strikeout guy in Masataka Yoshida, there are assumptions suggesting he isn’t long for Boston, thus freeing up the designated hitter spot.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested Boston take aim at Bregman this winter and trade first baseman Triston Casas whilst moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first. What he failed to entertain is the idea of Boston moving Devers to designated hitter with Yoshida being the odd-man out.

Photo Courtesy of Jack Gorman/Getty Images

After all, preserving Devers’ body should be paramount to the team that inked him to the richest contract in team history roughly 18 months ago. While it never appeared his defense was a deterrent to the roster in 2024, it’s clear his offense will make or break his contract.

Red Sox place third baseman Rafael Devers on injured list ending his season

Besides, Bregman is one of the game’s best defensive players regardless of position. This year, he’s in the 91st percentile in outs above average and consistently stays in the top 35 or so percent of the league.

Similar to Adames, the defensive upside of pairing Bregman with Story is certainly tempting.

Offensively, his quality of contact is fairly average, with a barrel rate around the 30th percentile and average exit velocity and hard-hit rate each in the 50th. However, he still produces in spite of somewhat lackluster batted ball data. This is his fifth consecutive full season of 23-plus home runs.

He’s also pretty much a lock for four wins above replacement.

Lastly, he and Alex Cora have a history, as the Red Sox manager was on the Houston Astros coaching staff in 2017, as many know. Not the strongest point ever, especially nowadays where money seems even more paramount, but can’t discredit the importance of the relationship.

The Verdict

Thinking logistically, Bregman makes the most sense.

From a prospect status standpoint, Campbell and Mayer both play middle infield, and not adding a middle infielder this winter allow for Grissom to come into camp positioned to feasibly earn a starting job in 2025.

Also, adding Bregman moves Devers to designated hitter, which is obviously a much less physically demanding position than third base. As a result, he can preserve his body while still young enough to give Bregman a spell from time-to-time, keeping both players in the lineup, something Boston chose not to do with its handling of Yoshida in 2024.

Bregman also adds a righty bat with power to the everyday lineup and drastically reduces the strikeout issues that often plagued the 2024 lineup.

Here’s a potential lineup should Boston find a suitor for Yoshida and land Bregman:

Jarren Duran LF
Rafael Devers DH
Alex Bregman 3B
Triston Casas 1B
Connor Wong C
Wilyer Abreu RF
Trevor Story SS
Vaughn Grissom 2B
Ceddanne Rafaela CF

That group of nine has a strikeout rate of 23.4%, which would rank middle of the pack among teams in 2024. Still not great, but that 2% improvement moves them from 28th to 18th. Rome wasn’t built in one day, but it’s a start.

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