Red Sox' Houck, Duran, proving development isn't always linear
Two players whose futures are hot topics of debate, Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran proving that everybody's development track is different.
In the series finale with the Minnesota Twins, right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck made the longest outing of his career.
His seven innings on Thursday not only mark a career-high but also were the first three outs he’s ever recorded in the sixth inning as a major league starter.
While the former first-rounder out of Mizzou departed with a sizeable lead, it wasn’t exactly a “run away and hide” kind of afternoon from Fenway Park. Yes, Boston led by seven before the fourth inning, but it all started with a statement in the top of the first by Houck.
Twelve pitches. Nine strikes. Two punchouts. Side retired in order.
The first inning had been anything but a safe haven for Red Sox pitchers all season. Through the first 19 games of 2023, the only team with a worse first-inning ERA was the Cincinnati Reds.
Houck getting through a scoreless first, with ease, set the tone for the entire day.
By the time his day was done, Houck had seven innings of three-run ball under his belt, allowing just six hits, walking one and striking out seven en route to his club-leading third victory of the season.
But the right-hander wasn’t the only polarizing Sox youngster to leave his fingerprints on the ballgame Thursday, as outfielder Jarren Duran continues to look the part this go-around at the MLB level.
Forget the numbers for a second, let’s use the eye test. Even at his best in 2021 and 2022, Duran looked reckless and oftentimes like a deer caught in the headlights. He was incredibly streaky, but it often looked like he processed the game at a million miles per hour.
Fast forward to 2023: he looks much more comfortable in an MLB ballpark. The game appears to have slowed down for him, at least to start.
Now, let’s add the numbers: 5-for-13, four doubles and five runs batted in. He’s also cut his strikeout rate down from 28.3% to 23.5% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 6.3% to 11.8%.
Oh, and he’s averaging 97.6 mph exit velocity on his batted ball events, racking up seven hard-hit balls (95+ mph) out of 11 events.
While it’s still incredibly early for Duran, and we’ve seen his tendency to come up with a bang and then fizzle out after a couple of weeks, it just looks different this time.
But why take note of their successes so early in the season?
For starters, these two have become really polarizing in terms of their respective futures with the team.
For Houck, it’s not so much about being on the Red Sox as it is rotation versus bullpen. However, for Duran, he’d fallen out of favor in Boston for inconsistent performance as well as questionable plays and antics on the field.
That said, their respective success in 2023 just goes to show that not everybody’s development is linear, nor is it always a perfect slope. Over the years, baseball fans have sort of forgotten what development looks like for *solid* MLB players.
We see guys like Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Julio Rodriguez come up and dominate and seem to think that’s the rule instead of the exception.
Everybody is guilty of falling into the trap of that line of thinking to some extent, especially when the emotions of fandom come into play. So, when somebody like Duran posts -0.8 fWAR and a 68 wRC+ through his first 91 games, it’s easy to think he’s just not an MLB-caliber player.
However, when you break it down, he’d improved upon his topsy-turvy 2021 campaign –– seeing increases across the triple slash, cutting strikeouts, increasing walks and barreling baseballs at a higher rate.
For him, it seems to be all about comfort; he’s a very toolsy player, with lots of traits that a star in this league needs to have. He’d flashed those tools before, now he looks the part as well.
As for Houck, his future has always been contingent on the development of a third pitch. This year, he appears to have found it, at least against lefties.
After throwing his splitter only 24 times in his first three starts, Houck threw 19 of them against the Twins, generating eight whiffs –– three of them to pick up strike three.
He also did something in his start on Thursday that seemed critical in Nathan Eovaldi’s dominance in 2021: he threw all five of his pitches at least 15% of the time.
Obviously, Houck had a feel for just about everything on Thursday, which is something that simply isn’t sustainable for anybody. However, it’s a tremendous stepping stone for him to have an outing where everything is clicking.
Houck and Duran have shown that each player’s development is just that: their own. While it’s easy as fans to sit back and criticize performance and give up on players right away, there’s a reason organizations hold onto guys.
Follow Jordan on Twitter @JordanLeandre55
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Nice work Jordan🙂❤️⚾️