Red Sox destined to outperform projections
Three Red Sox players who should shatter expectations for their 2023 season.
As Spring Training draws closer, it becomes clearer what the general construction of the 2023 Boston Red Sox will look like.
Yes, some roles aren’t concrete at the moment. However, most of the 26-man roster likely won’t serve as much of a surprise.
Now, it’s all about playing the projection game. X player projects to have a 115 wRC+ and Y player projects to hit 22 home runs.
As it stands, the 2023 Red Sox look like a team whose success is contingent on striking gold on several breakout candidates such as outfielder Alex Verdugo.
However, the youth of the Red Sox roster can’t carry this team to the postseason alone. With an emphasis this winter of bringing respected, accomplished veterans into the fold, those leaders need to also contribute on the field and even exceed expectations.
Among that group, which three are destined to surprise the baseball world with big 2023 campaigns?
1. OF Adam Duvall
2023 Steamer Projections: .213/.272/.417, 20 homers, an 88 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR
At 34 years old, Duvall is actually one of the younger signings made by CBO Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran this offseason.
That said, he’s coming off his worst season since 2018. In 86 games, he hit just 12 home runs and posted an 87 wRC+.
Injuries certainly played a part in hampering Duvall’s production, but FanGraphs’ Steamer projections aren’t believers in a bounce-back campaign. They project he’ll provide much-needed thump to the lineup but not much else.
However, Duvall’s profile as a hitter fits Fenway Park perfectly. Since he became a full-time starter in 2016, he puts the ball in the air on 50.2% of batted balls –– second out of 418 qualifying hitters.
Statcast projects he’d have hit 53 homers the past two seasons had he played every game at Fenway –– three more than his actual total.
Given his batted ball profile coupled with presumed role until utility man Kiké Hernández moves back to center when shortstop Trevor Story comes back, Duvall could vastly exceed projections.
Think back to 2021 Hunter Renfroe –– 113 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR, 31 homers and 96 runs batted in.
2. RHP Kenley Jansen
2023 Steamer Projections: 29 saves, 4.12 ERA, 26.6 K% and 0.3 fWAR
Jansen’s projections don’t see him as a fit at Fenway Park.
While the conservative projection on his saves total could be an overarching criticism of the Red Sox roster, the 4.12 ERA and 26.6 strikeout rate jump out as major head-scratchers.
Besides 2018, Jansen has never struck out less than 30% of batters faced in a season. He even saw an uptick in strikeout rate from 2021 to 2022.
While there are concerns about how he’ll adjust to the pitch clock, the 35-year-old closer is still one of the best in the business.
“Over the last 2 seasons [Jansen] has the most saves in baseball, 71 shutdowns, and only 16 meltdowns. Ediwn Dias had 65 shutdowns, 15 meltdowns. Hendricks 65 and 16. Clase 64 and 17.” - Red Sox Stats
Though he’s a fly-ball pitcher, Jansen makes up for it by generating a high percentage of infield pop-ups. Since 2021, he’s 20th out of 138 qualifying relievers in infield fly ball rate (14.9%).
He’s been one of the best closers in baseball for the past decade. Though relievers are incredibly volatile year-to-year, Jansen hasn’t shown signs of such drastic drop-off as Steamer projects.
3. LHP Chris Sale
2023 Steamer Projections: 3.47 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 147 innings and 2.9 fWAR
Red Sox fans across the world would go to sleep very happy at night if the oft-injured southpaw churned out that caliber season in 2023.
However, the soon-to-be 34-year-old has a healthy arm and pitched better the past two years than those projections suggest, albeit in 48.1 innings plus the 2021 postseason.
Just watching his 2022 debut back, he looked like vintage Sale. While the 100 mph fastball wasn’t there, he was surgical in his work of that Tampa Bay Rays lineup. He punched out five batters and had an average exit velocity against of 87.7 mph –– Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola ranked 15th among qualifying starters with an 87.7 mph average exit velocity against in 2022.
If Sale is healthy, he’ll greatly exceed those expectations. Obviously that’s a big if, considering he’s pitched fewer than 50 innings the past three regular seasons. However, at some point the injury bug has to leave him alone, right?
The talent is still in that arm and we’ve seen it in spurts the past two seasons. Now it’s a matter of getting to see it for a full 162.
He may not be the Sale of 2017 or 2018 anymore, but he can still be a dominant pitcher in this league.
Follow Jordan on Twitter @JordanLeandre55
For additional Red Sox and Major League Baseball content, follow Beyond the Monster: Boston Red Sox on Twitter @BeyondtheMnstr