Red Sox Deadline Target: RHP Edward Cabrera
Appearing to finally come into his own at the MLB level, does Edward Cabrera make sense for the 2025 Boston Red Sox?
Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera is mid-breakout in 2025, posting a 3.61 ERA with a 3.69 FIP across 82.1 innings pitched. In his past nine starts, which includes performances against Milwaukee, San Francisco twice, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay, he has a 2.25 ERA with a 2.94 FIP.
The Marlins in general have run into some success this season despite not being in a real position to contend. At the All-Star Break, they’re 44-51 even though Ace Sandy Alcantara has a 7.22 ERA.
Back to Cabrera, however.
The 27-year-old’s walk rate is way down from last year’s 12 percent and, despite a decrease in strikeouts, has also increased the separation between that and his walks.
His velocity ticked up half an mph on average and his curveball, which was already filthy, is even filthier in 2025.
Let’s examine his fit with the Boston Red Sox plans.
What I like about Edward Cabrera
Performance aside, the team control is the sexiest part of the right-hander’s game. Controlled through 2028 even though he’s at 376.1 career innings, Cabrera’s service time is only a few ticks above two years.
Back to his repertoire, his changeup averages 93.8 mph and is historically a legitimate whiff-getter for him. This year it’s regressed to a .263 average against and a whiff rate of 23.7 percent, but the average against was under .200 against it from 2022 through 2024.
The Red Sox historically don’t love four-seam fastballs, which is great because Cabrera’s usage of the pitch is at a career-low 14 percent. He’s become a very balanced pitcher in terms of usage, with three pitches between 22.3 and 23.8 percent.
Being able to mix velocity dramatically between secondaries is something pitching Andrew Bailey may froth at the mouth for. As mentioned, Cabrera’s changeup averages 93.8 mph in 2025, fourth in the majors and his curveball is tied for 21st in velocity (83.6 mph).
Facing varied pitch-speeds like that, with movement, is pretty uncomfortable for a batter to face. With his improved control, it’s no wonder he’s having a career-year.
Also, imagine his stuff coming out of the bullpen in a postseason series alongside Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Hicks? Talk about nasty.
What I don’t like about Edward Cabrera
What makes you laugh also makes you cry.
Cabrera has a ton of team control left, but zero minor-league options left. If his first-half performance is a mirage, there’s no saving him as a starting pitcher without risking losing him.
His fastballs also don’t work as they should, at least not in 2025. His sinker has an average launch angle against of 12 degrees, which could explain the expected slugging percentage of .554 against that pitch.
His four-seam and sinker both get hit and hit hard. Consequently, he feels more like a 2024 Red Sox rotation piece trying to trick opposing lineups with a lot of spin. While the American League isn’t as stacked as in years past, there are still some serious sluggers who can handle spin.
Lastly, there’s not track record of sustained success for Cabrera. While that doesn’t mean he can’t maintain performance deep into 2025 and beyond, it’s something to take into account when you’re also mortgaging future chips to acquire the player.
I’m also not 100% sure the Marlins would even want to trade Cabrera seeing as they’re starting to compete and they have him for three more years.
What would a trade package for Edward Cabrera look like?
Red Sox get: RHP Edward Cabrera and C Nick Fortes
Marlins get: RHP Luis Guerrero, LHP Connelly Early (No. 10 on Sox Prospects), 1B Blaze Jordan (No. 19), OF Allan Castro (No. 24) and SS Nazzan Zanetello (No. 53)
The outgoing in this trade package is much more quantity over quality than you’d expect for a 27-year-old having a breakout campaign, but there are serious risk factors with Cabrera that don’t typically come with someone in his position.
That said, the Marlins do get a reliever with high upside in Guerrero, needing a more consistent opportunity to get MLB innings as well as a high floor lefty starting pitching prospect in Early.
In addition, Boston lands a backup catcher who can spell Carlos Narvaez while Connor Wong gets more chances to play in Triple-A. Boston needs to improve its catching depth organizationally in the wake of the Blake Sabol trade and Yasmani Grandal retirement.
Fortes is slashing .256/.302/.368 with 0.8 fWAR across 128 plate appearances and is one of the best blocking backstops in the sport in addition to having 75th percentile framing and pop time.
Red Sox Deadline Target: 1B Josh Naylor
Even before this recent 10-game winning streak, the first base platoon of Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez had been a revelation for the Boston Red Sox.