Optimizing the Boston Red Sox lineup with Trevor Story
Tuesday marks the first day of 2023 the Red Sox starting lineup will be whole.
Only once more will the Boston Red Sox have to play before the debut of All-Star shortstop Trevor Story.
The 30-year-old was one of the team’s most valuable players last year in terms of wins above replacement, amassing 2.4 FanGraphs WAR (fWAR), third among Red Sox position players.
Offensively, the bat took a while to get going, as did defense at second base. However, when the calendar turned to May, both sides got going for the longtime Rockies star.
From May 1 onward, Story slashed .241/.304/.466 with 16 home runs and 2.3 fWAR in 77 games. His 61 RBI after May 1 ranked third on the roster despite him playing the seventh-most games during that span as he battled a broken hand and a foot injury.
As Jekyll & Hyde as the Red Sox offense has been for what seems like three months, they get perhaps the most impactful bat “acquired” at during MLB’s trading season.
With that in mind, how should the Red Sox primarily line up going forward with Story back in the fold?
1. Jarren Duran - CF
The young outfielder has come into his own after two up-and-down seasons as a part-time MLB player.
In many respects, Duran has been the best player on the Red Sox in 2023. His speed makes him a threat no matter if he’s in the batters box or on base, which he’s done to the tune of a .356 on-base percentage.
While the use of Duran as a leadoff hitter is somewhat dated, as many teams have opted for hitters of greater power or on-base prowess, Duran impacts the game in a way that no other Red Sox hitter can — making him the perfect guy to hit in front of the heavy hitters.
2. Justin Turner - DH
Following up Duran should be the 38-year-old Turner, who has turned the clock back and had one of his best offensive seasons since 2018.
In 34 games as the No. 2 hitter this season, he’s slashing .303/.378/.508 with 17 extra-base hits.
Much like Duran before him, Turner hitting second is a bit unorthodox for the modern game. Plenty teams have looked to their best hitter in the two-hole and, while Turner’s 122 wRC+ places him in a fourth-place tie on the Red Sox, that title belongs to either Masataka Yoshida or Rafael Devers.
However, with the surplus of lefties Boston has, it’s in the best interest of the team to break that string up by putting a bat control hitter like Turner behind the fastest guy on the team in Duran.
In effect, it turns the Red Sox into a scrappier offensive club, as Duran-Turner becomes the best hit-and-run tandem on the roster.
3. Rafael Devers - 3B
This one was a toss-up between Devers and Yoshida, but the Red Sox’ best lineup should guarantee the $300 million third baseman gets an at-bat in the first inning.
This season, the team is in the bottom-third of the league in first-inning wRC+ (99) and 18th in runs scored (56).
Between 2021 and 2022, Devers slashed .310/.358/.557 with a 150 wRC+ and 27 extra-base hits in 226 first-inning plate appearances.
While that’s just a series of isolated at-bats, and it more-or-less reflects the caliber hitter Devers was the past two years as it is, guaranteeing your homer and RBI leader an at-bat in the first inning could do wonders for a team in need of starting games better.
4. Masataka Yoshida - LF
Piggybacking off of needing to get Devers a first-inning at-bat, Yoshida is a higher on-base guy than Devers. In essence, he serves as a second leadoff hitter, except out of the cleanup spot in the lineup.
With Devers’ home run prowess, it’s quite possible Yoshida comes to bat with the bases empty — making it the perfect time to hit your team-leader in OBP.
Yoshida also checks in as one of the most complete hitters in baseball, meaning he isn’t a three-true outcomes bat.
He’s also tormented opposing pitchers out of the cleanup spot to the tune of a 166 wRC+ and a tick below a 35-homer and double pace in 31 games there.
5. Trevor Story - SS
The man of the hour.
Though Story showed how effective he is as a run producer in 2022, he falls into a similar trap as Turner — he has to break up the lefties in the order.
Hitting Story fifth seems like almost too perfect a spot for him, as it guarantees him at least a second-inning at-bat and helps lengthen the offensive prowess of the lineup.
Home runs have been hard to come by this season for the Red Sox, even more so with runners on base. This season, they’re 14th in home runs with runners on (tied with the Mets at 56).
Hitting Story — 19th in homers between 2016 and 2022 — behind Yoshida should net him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs and hit multi-run homers.
6. Triston Casas - 1B
He’s cemented himself as a “heart-of-the-order” bat with his run since April turned to May.
The past three months, he’s slashing .285/.375/.531 with a 143 wRC+ and 14 home runs, becoming every bit the Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Joey Votto that he was comped to during his minor-league development.
Similar to Yoshida, hitting behind someone with home run prowess does open the door for him to hit with nobody on base. However, Story also hits a ton of doubles.
That said, even if Casas came up with the bases empty, he’s become every bit the OBP wizard that Yoshida is. In fact, since May 1, he has a higher OBP than the Japanese superstar.
Part of optimizing a lineup is lengthening it and part of doing so is almost making it as you would a layer cake. You don’t want redundancy, you want each third to have its own flavor pattern.
You want hitters on base for the power bats and you want to follow power bats with high on-base bats to sort of restart the pressure put on the opposition.
7. Alex Verdugo - RF
It’s been a struggle-bus for Verdugo since the All-Star Break. A player who once looked like an All-Star snub has come out of the break hitting .186 with just two extra-base hits in 66 plate appearances.
He’s also seen his name come up in trade rumors and clubhouse drama in the immediate past.
There isn’t a hitter in this lineup that needs a page turned quite like the 27-year-old, and being the final third of the order’s leadoff hitter might be just what the doctor ordered for No. 99.
It’s pretty unfamiliar territory for him in the seven-hole, as he’s only hit there 54 times in 609 MLB games. However, perhaps a lineup “demotion” is just what he needs to lock back in and revert to the guy who was an All-Star snub.
He hit sixth in the series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway, going 3-for-4. That performance was his first multi-hit game since July 8 against Oakland and first one against a team above .500 since June 27 against Miami.
On the whole, Verdugo has still had a strong 2023 campaign, even with the long slump he’s endured, thanks in large part to his great defense in right field. Getting him back on track at the plate could push him back into the good graces of manager Alex Cora, who seemed much too displeased with the outfielder upon his benching on Aug. 5.
8. Luis Urias - 2B
As far as first impressions go, Urias left a good taste in the mouths of Red Sox fans with his performance during his first series.
Despite one awkward misplay-turned-infield hit he was part of, he held down second base and went 4-for-11 with a double and an RBI against the Blue Jays.
Hitting him at the bottom of the order kind of falls on it being deep, which is a good problem to have.
Also, as someone who struggled earlier in the year between injuries and performance with Milwaukee, hitting eighth puts him in a low-pressure spot while he gets acclimated to the new clubhouse.
9. Connor Wong - C
Rounding out the order is the catcher spot, primarily manned by Wong.
The catcher hasn’t had a great run of success the past six weeks, particularly in the power department. However, hitting ninth puts next to no pressure on him.
At the end of the day, whatever Wong — even McGuire — does offensively is gravy compared to what they provide on defense.
Follow Jordan on Twitter @JordanLeandre55
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Like what?
All I know is that since the Tampa Travesty arrived we haven’t been this bad for this long since the 1990’s.
Does the name Easton McGee ring a bell to you Jordan? a 6’6” pitcher that Bloomers just had to have so we got him from where else Tampa Bay. After doing such a great job for us with a lifetime WAR of O.5 he’s now pitching in obscurity for the Seattle Mariners.
SS Xander Bogaerts, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, LHP Rich Hill, DH JD Martinez, LHP Matt Strahm and RHP Michael Wacha all became Free Agents after your buddy Chaim Refused to pay them fair market value. I can put together 8 position players and 5 pitchers who used to play for the Sox during chaims reign and in 7 games beat the current Sox 5 times. Like I’ve said here before it’s not been since the days of Duquette that the Red Sox have been this bad both on the field and especially in the front office.