On to 2024: Ranking each OF free agency fit for Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have an outfield surplus. However, most are left-handed, thus creating a need for a righty bat out there.
Some of the biggest contributions to the 2023 Boston Red Sox came from their outfield group.
Jarren Duran and Adam Duvall each ranked in the top five on the roster for OPS, wRC+ and slugging percentage. Moreover, Alex Verdugo was a gold glove finalist, taking to the toughest defensive right field like it was elementary-level math.
But more than just them, the Sox also got a taste of future contributions from the likes of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela.
However, to remain consistent with recently hired Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow’s words, the team may be comfortable with what they have but that doesn’t mean they can’t look to make meaningful upgrades where they can.
This brings us to the current landscape of outfield free agents. Like many other positions in my now concluding big board of free-agency fits, the market isn’t exactly stellar. Many of the best outfielders to don new threads this winter could very well be via trade — Mike Trout, Luis Robert, Juan Soto.
That said, there are some intriguing options out there, particularly as it pertains to swing profiles and market value.
As a reminder, this will not be a power ranking of free agents. I am simply going down the list of Spotrac’s free agents and rating them based on how I see them fitting with the Boston Red Sox in 2024 and beyond.
With that, let’s begin.
1. Teoscar Hernández — Seattle Mariners
2023: .258/.305/.435 with 26 home runs and a 105 wRC+ in 160 games
It wasn’t a tremendous season for Hernández in his lone with Seattle before hitting free agency.
In fact, it was his worst by OPS since he broke out with the Blue Jays in 2017.
That said, he still hit what would’ve been the second-most homers on the Red Sox (26) and managed to maintain an elite level of run production, driving in 93 in a career-high 160 games.
Hernández also has a .950 career OPS at Fenway Park with a 46.7 home run per 150 games pace in 45 games.
2. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — Arizona Diamondbacks
2023: .261/.309/.463 with 24 home runs and a 106 wRC+ in 145 games
Toronto Blue Jays alum have already been well-represented on this ranking, as No. 2 also is a former longtime Jay.
Gurriel hit a career-best 24 home runs and posted a career-high 3.0 rWAR in his lone season in the desert. He also posted 14 defensive runs saved in left field, which is 18 more than Japanese star Masataka Yoshida.
Gurriel also offers some versatility, getting some burn at first base since 2021.
3. Adam Duvall — Boston Red Sox
2023: .247/.303/.531 with 21 home runs and a 116 wRC+ in 92 games
Duvall’s biggest advantage is we’ve already seen what he looks like at Fenway Park. In 44 games there in 2023, the veteran slashed .278/.337/.596 and homered at over a 30 per 150 game pace.
Defensively, he left some to be desired in center field but was worth +2 defensive runs saved in 179.2 innings in right.
If he’s willing to take another one-year deal and isn’t prioritizing going to a team better positioned to win a title, a re-signing makes a ton of sense.
4. Jorge Soler — Miami Marlins
2023: .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 137 games
There likely isn’t a more perfect match than Soler’s swing and Fenway Park out of any potential pairing this winter.
However, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said ideally the team doesn’t have a set designated hitter in 2024.
While, obviously, that doesn’t close the door on that potential reality, Soler’s lackluster defense historically makes it harder to see him as a fit for the 2024 roster than the three ahead of him on this list.
5. Harrison Bader — Cincinnati Reds
2023: .232/.274/.348 with seven home runs and a 70 wRC+ in 98 games
Bader was either hurt or underperforming pretty much all of 2023, so his No. 5 ranking here is sort of ambitious on my part.
That said, I love the man’s defense.
Right field at Fenway Park is genuinely like a second center field, meaning the Red Sox truly need multiple center fielders to field a competent defensive outfielder.
If the Red Sox sign Bader, pairing him with somebody like Duran or Rafaela in center, this marriage could make a ton of sense.
Offensively, if Bader can replicate even his 2022, it would be well worth it — similar to what Jackie Bradley Jr. did for years in his first stint with the Red Sox.
6. Aaron Hicks — Baltimore Orioles
2023: .253/.353/.383 with eight home runs and a 109 wRC+ in 93 games
The 2023 season was something of a return to normalcy for Hicks who, despite a four-year run of legitimate success in the Bronx, was always seen as a polarizing player.
Being a switch-hitter, 110 wRC+ as a lefty since 2017 and 119 as a righty, Hicks checks an immediate box for resolving platoon asymmetry on the roster (Yes, I love that phrase from Breslow).
Not only that, but he played at least 20 games at all three outfielder spots in 2023, which bodes well for somebody who could be used as a fourth outfielder to get guys like Yoshida or Duran a day in the DH spot.
7. Tommy Pham — Arizona Diamondbacks
2023: .256/.328/.446 with 16 home runs and a 110 wRC+ in 129 games
Pham had essentially a cup of coffee with the Red Sox in 2022 and produced mixed results.
Overall, he posted a .672 OPS with six homers in 53 games for the club.
However, Pham rebounded in 2023 big time, improving his triple slash across the board and logging his most doubles since 2019.
I still like Pham as a fit, especially in left field. The reason he falls out of the top five has more to do with his age and mixed results in recent years than it does what I project for him in 2024.
8. Hunter Renfroe — Cincinnati Reds
2023: .233/.297/.416 with 20 home runs and a 92 wRC+ in 140 games
Renfroe had the worst non-COVID season of his MLB career in 2023, posting career worsts in OPS+, home runs and rWAR.
That said, we’ve seen firsthand that his swing is tailor-made for Fenway Park.
Even though the veteran corner outfielder has played for six teams in the past five seasons, his swing and skillset still make a ton of sense for the Red Sox — especially as a buy-low option like he was in 2021.
9. Jung-Hoo Lee — Kiwoon Heroes (KBO)
2023: .318/.406/.455 with six home runs and an .860 OPS in 86 games
Our first left-handed bat is someone who’s never played in MLB before.
While Lee did have his worst season from a power standpoint since his rookie year in 2017, he still posted an OBP over .400 with 31 extra-base hits in 86 games.
Lee brings a good balance of contact and on-base prowess, to mix with being a decent defender.
While I think Lee will turn into a very good MLB player, I do question the likelihood Boston will sign him.
10. Randal Grichuk — Los Angeles Angels
2023: .267/.321/.459 with 16 home runs and a 100 wRC+ in 118 games
After tearing the cover off the ball for the Rockies, Grichuk bottomed out in Anaheim — 80 OPS+.
His entire body of work, however, is somewhat intriguing.
Even though his OPS+ is just 101, he’s homered at a 27 per 162-game pace for his career and is generally a steady RBI producer, driving in at least 60 in five of the past seven non-COVID years.
The Sox need right-handed pop, which the 32-year-old provides despite not being the most enticing name of the group.
11. Michael A. Taylor — Minnesota Twins
2023: .220/.278/.442 with 21 home runs and a 96 wRC+ in 129 games
I really think the only differences between Taylor and Bader are Taylor’s durability and likely incoming contract.
Bader ranks No. 5 with Taylor at 11 because I think the Red Sox only need to buy half a season until Rafaela or Abreu are ready for full-time MLB reps or, at worst, a year or two until top prospect Roman Anthony is ready.
Bader is a likelier one-year with a club option candidate than Taylor, who I see inking a multi-year deal somewhere.
12. Jason Heyward — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: .269/.340/.473 with 15 home runs and a 121 wRC+ in 124 games
Twelve is sort of a peculiar ranking for Heyward who, despite how great he was at face value in 2023, is a bit of a wild card this winter.
I like Heyward a lot and I personally would love to see the Red Sox sign a defense-first, left-handed hitting veteran outfielder this winter.
There are caveats here: He’s 34 years old and outplayed his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) by 30 points. So while he was 12th among 38 outfielders in wOBA (minimum of 250 plate appearances), he ranked 28th in xwOBA.
He’s still a premium defender in right field, though, netting five DRS and OAA apiece in 2023 out there. However, perhaps best to look at his production as a center fielder given the difficulties of right at Fenway Park — minus-2 DRS but still plus-1 OAA.
A one-year deal for, like, $5 million is absolutely something I’d do for Heyward.
13. Jurickson Profar — San Diego Padres
2023: .242/.321/.368 with nine home runs and a 76 wRC+ in 125 games
Profar really struggled with the Rockies for 111 games but, in a 14-game sample for the Padres, showed he could still be decent in a pinch offensively.
He’s been very hit-or-miss for his entire career, but especially since his final season with the Rangers in 2018.
Based on recent trends, this means a one-year deal for Profar is very smart because he’s due to be roughly a 110 wRC+ guy.
14. Kevin Kiermaier — Toronto Blue Jays
2023: .265/.322/.419 with eight home runs and a 104 wRC+ in 129 games
Kiermaier can still hang at the MLB level, something that was more of a presumption after an injury-riddled 2022 in which he posted a .649 OPS.
I like Kiermaier a lot on account of his top-notch defense — 18 DRS and 13 OAA in center last year — and could see the fit if Boston moved Duran this winter. However, given the current landscape of the roster with four left-handed hitting outfielders, it doesn’t make sense.
I do see him continuing his tour of the AL East, though, just likely in pinstripes.
15. J.D. Martinez — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+ in 113 games
On the journey to find more power, there’s a path that leads to a reunion with the former Red Sox designated hitter.
The reason he lands pretty low on the list for his skillset is that the team wants to get more athletic at the DH spot and Martinez has played only 12 innings in the outfield the past two seasons.
If all else fails, I’d love to see these two sides join forces again — I will never have a bad thing to say about the 36-year-old, even if he is more of a slugger than a complete hitter as he gets older.
16. Andrew McCutchen — Pittsburgh Pirates
2023: .256/.378/.397 with 12 home runs and a 115 wRC+ in 112 games
Similar to Martinez, McCutchen is really only a DH at this stage in his career.
The thing that separates the two, in my opinion, is Martinez’s power outweighs McCutchen’s plate discipline.
With all due respect to McCutchen, his being a minus on the basepaths the past two seasons really negates the fact he’s an excellent walk-drawer because he doesn’t hit for power anymore.
Could the Green Monster get more pop out of McCutchen in his age-37 season? Probably. However, I’d want a more sure thing from a power standpoint if the Red Sox went with a set DH.
17. A.J. Pollock — San Francisco Giants
2023: .165/.215/.308 with five home runs and a 43 wRC+ in 54 games
At the risk of being too concise, Pollock had an awful season in 2023 between injuries and performance. Following a down year in 2022 with the White Sox, it doesn’t bode well for a prospective contract ahead of his age-36 season.
That’s what makes him a sneaky potential fit for the Red Sox: he might be getting a deal in the $2 to $3 million range for one season as more of a reserve player.
That said, Boston already has Rob Refsnyder at its disposal as a lefty specialist off the bench — it really doesn’t need a second one.
18. Travis Jankowski — Texas Rangers
2023: .263/.357/.332 with one home run and a 95 wRC+ in 107 games
Jankowski was more of a defensive replacement for Bruce Bochy’s World Series-winning Rangers club last year, and for good reason.
The 32-year-old averaged just 2.7 plate appearances per game played last year but was a positive defensively at all three outfield positions.
As I mentioned in the blurb about Heyward, I’d like for the Red Sox to add a veteran, defense-first left-handed hitting outfielder this winter. Jankowski checks all of those boxes, plus adds base-stealing prowess and might even be a cheaper get than Heyward.
The reason he ranks several spots lower is that he’s historically a 20% below-average hitter with only 10 homers in over 1,500 plate appearances.
19. Joc Pederson — San Francisco Giants
2023: .235/.348/.416 with 15 home runs and a 111 wRC+ in 121 games
The 2023 season wasn’t Pederson’s best, but he did suffer from some tough luck.
His .368 xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile last season, his walk rate was in the 91st percentile and his hard-hit rate was in the 96th percentile.
He also hammers high velocity, posting a .408 xwOBA against pitches 95 mph or faster, tying him for 17th out of 321 hitters to see 1,000 pitches or more.
His defense is very sub-optimal, so he’s more of a designated hitter, unfortunately. I think he could’ve been a sneaky fit with even average defense but providing no resistance to the platoon or defensive issues this team is facing, it becomes harder to justify.
Moreover, I think people shouldn’t be as surprised as they will be when it comes out that many teams are going hard after Pederson.
20. Michael Brantley — Houston Astros
2023: .278/.298/.426 with two home runs and a 96 wRC+ in 15 games
Injuries really killed what was a very fascinating trajectory to watch for Brantley over the years, culminating in just 79 games played and 334 regular-season plate appearances since 2022.
He’s still a viable hitter when out there, remaining one of the toughest in baseball to strike out, but the injuries make it so hard to project a market for him or even a true fit for him anywhere.
He rounds out the top 20 simply because I don’t see a pathway to him getting more than a one-year deal and I could see the Red Sox being players at that price point.
21. Cody Bellinger — Chicago Cubs
2023: .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and a 134 wRC+ in 130 games
Bellinger really isn’t a fit for the 2024 Red Sox.
The former NL MVP seemingly overstayed his welcome with the Dodgers before the Cubs signed him to a prove-it deal before last season.
But despite his great numbers, he ranked tied for 303rd out of 321 hitters with 1,000 or more pitches seen in xwOBA against pitches 95 mph or faster (.241).
What makes him not so much a fit for the Red Sox is his expected massive payday coupled with him being left-handed.
22. Trayce Thompson — Chicago White Sox
2023: .163/.285/.294 with six home runs and a 65 wRC+ in 72 games
Thompson went crazy with the Dodgers in 2022 but had trouble replicating that success between them and the White Sox last season.
The power is still there, at least during his time with the Dodgers, and is a reverse splits guy. Therefore, he’d make some sense as a potential platoon option with Refsnyder, though not much more than that.
23. Robbie Grossman — Texas Rangers
2023: .238/.340/.394 with 10 home runs and a 102 wRC+ in 115 games
I like Grossman a lot, but this is somebody I’d have inquired about more a couple of seasons ago than right now.
He was a decent defensive outfielder in 2022 but before that, his last season as a positive-rated defender was 2019 and, before that, 2014.
I like his plate discipline and the fact he’s a switch hitter but I just think there are better options.
24. David Peralta — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: .259/.294/.381 with seven home runs and an 82 wRC+ in 133 games
It’s kind of crazy to think about the Dodgers deploying a 0.1 fWAR player for over 130 games but here we are.
I like Peralta as a personality, but he’s never really turned into the player he was hyped up as.
Since he hit 30 homers in 2018, Peralta has just 44 in 570 games.
His being left-handed already handcuffs his fit with the Red Sox, but the lack of power really does it in.
25. Eddie Rosario — Atlanta Braves
2023: .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs and a 100 wRC+ in 142 games
Rosario’s name has floated around Red Sox free agency circles a few times in the past, but his fit with the team is even less logical than back then.
He provides a decent amount of thump but is historically not a high on-base guy and besides 2023 and 2016, has never graded out as a positive defender in both outs above average and defensive runs saved in left field.
26. Corey Dickerson — Washington Nationals
2023: .250/.283/.354 with two home runs and a 70 wRC+ in 50 games
Dickerson is historically about as slightly above average a player as you can find.
He was tremendous offensively in 2014, 2015 and 2019, but often negated it with meh defense and, since 2020, has accumulated just 0.7 fWAR in 308 games.
27. Jake Marisnick — Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: .237/.280/.408 with two home runs and an 85 wRC+ in 46 games
Since becoming a staple with the Astros from 2015 to 2019, Marisnick has bounced around a lot.
Over the past three years, the veteran outfielder has played for seven teams, most recently the Dodgers.
He could serve as an intriguing minors signing with a big-league camp invite but I don’t see the fit much beyond that for the man entering his age-33 season.
28. Clint Frazier — Chicago White Sox
2023: .197/.303/.242 with no home runs and a 58 wRC+ in 33 games
Frazier actually found some success in Triple-A this year, where he played 78 games. Across that sample, he posted a .442 slugging percentage and hit 12 home runs.
He intrigues me as a minor-league signing with a club invite to big-league camp. I don’t see a fit much more beyond that.
29. Billy McKinney — New York Yankees
2023: .227/.320/.406 with six home runs and a 101 wRC+ in 48 games
What truly keeps McKinney outside the top 25 is the fact he’s a left-handed hitter.
Though not great defensively, the 29-year-old played fairly well in a pinch for the Yankees a season ago. He’s also earned a reputation for being the best player in the world for the first week-to-month a team has him.
30. Jackie Bradley Jr. — Kansas City Royals
2023: .133/.188/.210 with one home run and a 2 wRC+ in 43 games
In an “in case of emergency” situation, having Bradley Jr. in the organization may not be the worst thing to ever happen.
He’s clearly never returning to the form he was at when the Red Sox let him go the first time after 2020, but he’s a tremendous human being and still a top-notch defender who could help out if the team needed an injury replacement for a week or so.
Even if not that, just bring him into camp and let him work with the young guys. That time alone might be worth whatever it would cost to sign him for three weeks.
31. Raimel Tapia — Tampa Bay Rays
32. Kyle Garlick — Minnesota Twins
33. Kole Calhoun — Cleveland Guardians
34. Tyler Naquin — Chicago White Sox
35. Tim Locastro — New York Mets
36. Kevin Pillar — Atlanta Braves
37. Jesse Winker — Milwaukee Brewers
38. Wil Myers — Cincinnati Reds
39. Jordan Luplow — Minnesota Twins
40. Brett Phillips — Los Angeles Angels
41. Andrew Stevenson — Minnesota Twins
42. Billy Hamilton — Chicago White Sox
43. Bligh Madris — Houston Astros
44. Abraham Almonte — New York Mets
45. Derek Hill - Washington Nationals
46. Cody Thomas — Oakland Athletics
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