On to 2024: Ranking each 1B free agency fit for Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox don't have a need for a first baseman this winter. However, in their quest for more right-handed offense, they could look to one of these free agents anyway.
Last season was a tale of two for rookie first baseman Triston Casas.
Through April, the American League Silver Slugger finalist was on the chopping block in the eyes of the fan base. In his first 25 games, he slashed .133/.283/.293 with a 59 wRC+ and a 29.3% strikeout rate.
From that point on, he was only one of the best hitters in all of baseball: .291/.385/.531 in his final 410 plate appearances.
While his defense was often shaky, his -10 outs above average as proof, first base isn’t a position of much defensive value. The job should and will be his to lose for the foreseeable future.
That doesn’t mean the team can’t look to the first base market to inject more offense into a team that hit the 18th-most homers and tied for 15th in isolated power — especially with the (potentially) looming free agency of Justin Turner (third in homers, seventh in isolated power on the team).
For that, let’s rank each free agent first baseman based on fit with the 2024 Red Sox.
Disclaimer: This is NOT a power ranking. There will be superior players ranked lower on the list for a myriad of reason including, but not limited to: age, batted ball profile, expected contract, etc.
1. Justin Turner — Boston Red Sox
2023: .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers and a 114 wRC+ in 146 games
Familiarity goes a long way. We know Turner can handle the media and the demands of the fan base.
His final slash line doesn’t do justice the kind of season Turner had in 2023, as a heel injury — that would’ve knocked him out for six weeks had he gone on the injured list — hampered him in September.
Through August, he slashed .287/.357/.488 with a 126 wRC+ and 22 home runs.
Age is certainly a drawback for the veteran corner infielder, as he will be 39 this month, but we’ve seen in recent history that being a DH can extend careers into their late-30s and early-40s — case in point with David Ortiz, Nelson Cruz and, to a lesser extent, Matt Carpenter.
2. Rhys Hoskins — Philadelphia Phillies
2023: DNP (knee)
I was very close to putting Hoskins at No. 1, but ultimately the familiarity and versatility that comes with Turner helped eek out the Phillies first baseman.
Hoskins has flown under the radar his entire career, but especially his final two seasons (playing) for the Phillies. Since 2021, Hoskins is slashing .246/.333/.489 with 4.3 fWAR, 57 homers and 62 doubles in a little over 1,100 plate appearances.
His swing is suited very well to Fenway Park — 40 homers to the pull-side between 2021 and 2022 (ninth among right-handed hitters). In fact, he’s still tied for 32nd in pull-side homers including 2023, a season in which he played zero games.
He’s got some experience playing left field as well, but it was less than admirable. He’s definitely a first baseman and designated hitter tweener should the Red Sox sign him.
The one draw back is he’s coming off an ACL injury that knocked him out of the entire 2023 season. However, it wouldn’t deter me from signing him above anybody else except Turner.
3. Mark Canha — Milwaukee Brewers
2023: .262/.355/.400 with 11 home runs and a 111 wRC+ in 139 games
This sort of contradicts my opening monologue because Canha, as solid a ballplayer as he is, doesn’t hit for power at all really.
He’s still just simply a good big-league hitter who, albeit 35 years old, still offers tremendous versatility.
In 2023, Canha played 18 games at first base, four at third, 26 in right, 69 in left and 33 at designated hitter. He’s not really a utilityman, but he certainly offers some stability at multiple positions and, despite the lack of power, would be a very good fit as baseball seemingly requires more versatility and athleticism.
4. Carlos Santana — Milwaukee Brewers
2023: .240/.318/.429 with 23 home runs and a 101 wRC+ in 146 games
Santana is somebody I’ve been open about wanting in Boston before, most recently in 2021.
He’s not the same hitter he was back in 2019 with the Cleveland Guardians — he sort of teeters around league average since, save for him bottoming out at an 81 wRC+ in 2021.
He’s still exceptional at finding the balance between walks and strikeouts and still provides thump.
Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said in his introductory press conference that there’s some “platoon asymmetry” on the roster which, to many, signified a desire to add right-handed bats. However, the ultimate platoon balancer would be a switch-hitter, which Santana is.
Despite not winning it all in 2016 with Cleveland, Santana has been there, done that at the MLB level at the biggest stage.
5. C.J. Cron — Los Angeles Angels
2023: .248/.295/.434 with 12 home runs and an 82 wRC+ in 71 games
Cron’s been on a bit of a decline in recent years, but still at the very least provides thump in the order.
Since 2021, he’s hit 69 home runs and driven in 231 runs in 1,457 plate appearances.
Injuries hampered the 33-year-old some in 2023, thus making him an intriguing buy-low option on a one-year deal to potentially buy the Red Sox some time to develop that next wave of young hitters.
6. Josh Bell - Miami Marlins
2023: .247/.325/.419 with 22 home runs and a 105 wRC+ in 150 games
The trade to Miami did wonders for Bell’s 2023 season, as he had a blah 96 wRC+ and .383 slugging percentage in 97 games with the Guardians. After the trade, he matched his home run total in 53 games, slashing .270/.338/.480 in the process.
I like Bell, and he’s younger than Santana, but I think the floor of Santana makes him more intriguing than the switch-hitting Bell. Not only that, but I expect Santana to get considerably less this winter in length and dollar value, and certainly will generate more bang for your buck there.
There’s no guarantee that Bell hits the market either, as he has a player option for $16.5 million this offseason.
7. Garrett Cooper — San Diego Padres
2023: .251/.304/.419 with 17 home runs and a 96 wRC+ in 123 games
Cooper’s 2023 was kind of weird in the sense he hit the most homers of his career, played his most games, drove in his most runs but had arguably his worst season between the Marlins and Padres.
Similar to Bell, the midseason change of scenery elevated Cooper’s numbers, as he posted a 103 wRC+ in 41 games with the Padres.
He provides some power from the right-hand side, something the Red Sox lack — especially with Turner and outfielder Adam Duvall expected to hit free agency.
Similar to Cron, I’d be interested in a buy-low scenario — perhaps a one-year deal similar to what Turner got last winter — with Cooper and slotting him in the bottom third of the order.
8. Joey Gallo — Minnesota Twins
2023: .177/.301/.440 with 21 home runs and a 104 wRC+ in 111 games
A few years back, Gallo was a heavily sought after commodity for teams looking to add power. Now, the narrative has changed for the left-handed slugger.
Even if it was peak Gallo hitting the market, he’d probably rank somewhere in the 6-to-8 range regardless because the Sox simply don’t need left-handed bats. That said, he does offer some defensive versatility, particularly in the outfield.
It’s easy to get so hyper-focused on adding power that you forget this team was one of, if not the worst defensive group in the majors last season.
As Breslow said in his intro press conference, “When you tether yourself to a singular approach [to winning], you lose opportunities to gain competitive advantages." Gallo would be an upgrade defensively, he just wouldn’t be so much on offense and, at a position where offense is a necessity, that just doesn’t make him appealing.
9. Gio Urshela — Los Angeles Angels
2023: .299/.329/.374 with two home runs and a 92 wRC+ in 62 games
Urshela is a decent ballplayer, and for other positions I’d be more than happy to consider him.
However, his lack of power production keeps me from wanting him in a first base/designated hitter role.
He also missed most of 2023 with a pelvis injury and will be entering his age 32 season.
Maybe as a buy-low candidate, but I wouldn’t commit much to Urshela if I were Breslow and Red Sox brass.
10. Brandon Belt — Toronto Blue Jays
2023: .254/.369/.490 with 19 home runs and a 138 wRC+ in 103 games
If the Red Sox needed a left-handed hitter, Belt would probably rank in the 3-to-5 range instead of rounding out the top 10. Unfortunately, he’s restricted to just first base and designated hitter, which contradicts the need for the Red Sox to become more versatile and athletic.
Sure, he has some experience playing corner outfield, but -8 DRS and -3 OAA in less than 600 innings — none of which have come since the pandemic — throws a wet blanket on that idea.
It’s unfortunate, because I think he might be the best hitter of the group, but that’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes.
11. Yuli Gurriel — Miami Marlins
2023: .245/.304/.359 with four home runs and a 77 wRC+ in 108 games
Remember that, like, 15-minute stretch last winter when we all thought the Red Sox signed Gurriel?
Anyway, in hindsight, that was a bullet dodged.
Given the decline of the now 39-year-old, it’s probably wise for the Red Sox to steer clear of him again this offseason. The only reason he slides in at No. 11 despite being inferior, and older, than some of the guys that’ll rank below him is because he’s won two rings and been instrumental offensive contributors to both titles.
12. Jared Walsh — Los Angeles Angels
2023: .125/.216/.279 with four home runs and a 33 wRC+ in 39 games
I like Walsh, so it stinks to see him beleaguered by injuries and poor performance the past two seasons.
When healthy, he emerged as a very good bat in 2020 and 2021, at least in a platooning capacity (167 wRC+ against righties those two years).
He does offer power with minimal positional versatility — 242.2 innings defensively in the outfield — and is relatively young still at 30. A resurrection in production isn’t exactly unheard of from people his age, as Jason Heyward just did with the Dodgers at 33, 34 years old.
13. Ji Man Choi — San Diego Padres
2023: .163/.239/.385 with six home runs and a 65 wRC+ in 39 games
The 2023 campaign wasn’t kind to Choi, who played his fewest games at the MLB level since 2017.
The charismatic first baseman struggled with injuries mightily last season but did pop for a .221 ISO despite the .163 average.
Choi is one of my favorite players because he’s very fun and has always been loved by his teammates wherever he’s gone. On a minors deal, or even just to be a bench-bat, pinch-hitting type, I’d be all for adding the 32-year-old.
14. Brandon Dixon — San Diego Padres
2023: .203/.244/.329 with two home runs and a 57 wRC+ in 33 games
Dixon has been a menace in Triple-A for some time, but has struggled to get his feet wet at the MLB level.
Since 2022, he’s slashing .316/.391/.648 with 38 homers and a 145 wRC+ in 110 minor-league games.
Dixon is 31 years old and right-handed, so the characteristics he provides in terms of handedness and age fit into what the Red Sox might look for on a minors deal, but nothing more considering he’s possessing next to no track record of success in the majors.
15. Franchy Cordero — New York Yankees
2023: .188/.211/.478 with six home runs and an 81 wRC+ in 24 games
Cordero was one of the more polarizing Red Sox players of the Chaim Bloom era because he was hotter than fish grease or colder than a glacier; no in-between.
Cordero does offer positional versatility, which makes him more enticing than a couple guys ahead of him on this list in that regard. However, they’ve been there, done that with Cordero and I’m not sure its in the best interest of the organization to “be there” with him again.
Hall of Fame caliber teammate, though.
16. Darin Ruf — Milwaukee Brewers
2023: .224/.333/.286 with no home runs and a 79 wRC+ in 20 games
Ruf came back to the states with a bang in 2020 and 2021, doubling up on seasons of a 140 or better wRC+.
The 2022 and 2023 seasons weren’t so kind to him. The regression bug smoked him in 2022 and injuries sped up his decline in 2023.
He’s one of the more fascinating minor league deal options out there, considering the thump he provided the Giants for those two years. I don’t know if that is with Boston, especially with prospects like Niko Kavadas already in Triple-A, but who knows.
17. Matt Carpenter — San Diego Padres
2023: .176/.322/.319 with five home runs and an 86 wRC+ in 76 games
Carpenter resurrected his career in 2022 with the Yankees, turning into prime Barry Bonds in the process.
The 2023 season was a return to his latter days in St. Louis, which were not bad but certainly not overly productive.
San Diego just wasn’t a good fit for Carpenter — Boston wouldn’t be either.
18. Josh Lester — Baltimore Orioles
2023: .182/.217/.182 with no home runs and an 11 wRC+ in 11 games
He’s 28, left-handed with only 28 MLB plate appearances to this point, none of which really fall under the profile of a player the Red Sox would be interested in ahead of 2024.
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