Nick Pivetta wants to start, is he better suited as a bulk innings reliever?
Nick Pivetta is a fiery competitor, has a solid curveball, and can give you 160 innings year in and year out. However, for a Red Sox team looking to reinvent their subpar rotation, Chaim Bloom should look elsewhere to fill out the last few spots.
For a team with newfound starting pitching depth, there’s a case to be made that the Red Sox have seven legitimate candidates to break the rotation. Here’s a list of those players and their career ERA and FIP:
Chris Sale 3.03 ERA/2.92 FIP
Corey Kluber 3.31 ERA/3.09 FIP
James Paxton 3.59 ERA/3.31 FIP
Garrett Whitlock 2.73 ERA/3.07 FIP
Tanner Houck 3.02 ERA/2.95 FIP
Brayan Bello 4.71 ERA/2.94 FIP
Nick Pivetta 5.02 ERA/4.49 FIP
Listen, I’m not trying to argue that Pivetta is a worthless pitcher. However, the numbers don’t lie. Of this group, he laps the competition in innings pitched over the last three seasons, at 350. Pivetta holds value as an innings eater who can give you a spot start and save the bullpen every fifth day if given the chance. That’s the end of the good stuff.
Pivetta is the worst in this group in (qualified) ERA, FIP, HR/9, and BB/9. Of the Red Sox rotation, Pivetta has by far the lowest ceiling, and while the others hold definite longevity and injury concerns, it would make little sense for Pivetta to take a valued spot in the rotation. His Baseball Savant page is littered with ice-cold circles, as he lands in the fifth percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 18th percentile in xERA, and 19th percentile in barrel rate. Pivetta got shelled in 2022, and saving a spot for him in the rotation for the sole purpose of being an innings eater limits the potential of this volatile Red Sox rotation.
Again, Pievetta truly does hold value. He’s shown flashes of excellence as a long-relief type swingman; his extra-innings shutdown of the Rays in the 2021 ALDS, accompanied by his signature primal screams, was one of the most exciting moments of the entire postseason. However, Pivetta has proven to be a low-risk, low-reward type starter.
The Red Sox didn’t go out and give big money to high-end relievers just for them not to pitch; by creating depth in the bullpen they need to take more risks in the rotation, which means moving on from the reliable but unexciting Pivetta.
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