Loss of Thump Contributing to Red Sox Slump
Boston’s offensive power outage has directly contributed to the team’s struggles
On May 6th, the Red Sox capped off their eighth straight victory, culminating in a sterling 21-14 record. Boston’s +30 run-differential was tied with the Baltimore Orioles for third-best in the American League, behind only the surging Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers.
About a month later, the Red Sox have dropped to 31-30 and their run differential has plummeted to just +10. A once-promising season now appears mired in mediocrity.
But, the truth is, with a barely above-average record buoyed by a blazing start, Boston has been far worse than even a mediocre club over the past month.
From May 7th to June 6th, the Red Sox have posted an 10-16 record. They have scored the seventh-fewest runs in baseball while allowing the twelfth-most.
The slump can be somewhat attributed to Boston’s pitching staff, which has consistently performed poorly over the course of the 2023 season. The teams’ defensive woes have been highlighted recently, but those ailments also began long before the team’s drop-off.
Red Sox Pitching Staff:
Through first 35 G: 4.79 ERA - 9th worst in MLB
Through next 26 G: 4.44 ERA - 12th worst
The root of the problem is the Red Sox offense.
Offensive dropoff
Through the first 35 games of the season, Boston scored the second-most runs in the league (behind Tampa) and ranked second in average (.273), third in on-base (.345) and slugging (.455) and tied for third in offensive WAR (6.7).
Red Sox Offensive Rankings through First 35 G of the Season (21-14) vs Last 26 G (11-16):
Average: .273 (2nd) / .246 (14th)
On-Base: .345 (3rd) / .319 (15th)
Slugging: .455 (3rd) / .393 (21st)
Offensive fWAR: 6.7 (3rd) / 1.3 (27th)
The offense’s successful start was fueled by a strong ability to avoid swing & miss while barreling balls at an above-average rate. Just a month ago, no team had fewer swings & misses than the Red Sox while registering more barrels.
In the ensuing 31 days, Boston batters continued to consistently put the bat on the ball but did so with far less authority.
Red Sox Offense’s Average Swings & Misses per Game:
First 35 games: 15.8 (6th fewest total)
Last 26 games: 16.1 (5th fewest total)
Red Sox Offense’s Average Barrels per Game:
First 35 games: 2.3 (79 total - T-7th)
Last 26 games: 1.8 (47 total - T-25th)
Barrels are a stat used to quantify optimally hard-hit baseballs - usually line drives or fly balls launched at roughly 26-30 degrees with exit velocities around 98 MPH, adjusted based on the launch angle.
If there’s any doubt about the legitimacy of the metric, Aaron Judge routinely leads the league in the category, and other familiar names in the top ten this season include Ronald Acuña Jr., Yordan Alvarez and Freddie Freeman.
Unlike result-based stats such as slugging percentage, barrels are a process stat that is easier for hitters to control and more accurately correlates with future, sustained success. As evidenced by the Red Sox offense, a barrel drought often leads to an offensive slump.
Individual hitter breakdown
Not every hitter needs to barrel baseballs regularly to be productive. Luis Arraez has used his elite contact skills to hit .401 this season despite recording just four barrels. He’s only swung & missed 28 times (3%).
The closest hitter Boston has to Arraez is Masataka Yoshida, who has swung and missed at just a 6% clip en route to a .319 average thus far. While he doesn’t have quite the same contact-ability as Arraez, Yoshida makes up for it by hitting for more power.
Through the first six weeks of the season, Yoshida slugged .537, with 10 of his batted balls meeting the ‘barrel’ criteria. Nine went for extra bases (two 2B, seven HR).
Over the past month, however, he’s barreled just three baseballs, resulting in just one home run.
Still, Yoshida’s excellent bat-to-ball skills have allowed him to be one of the only above-average offensive contributors over the team’s past 26 games (135 WRC+), along with Triston Casas (132) and Justin Turner (122).
Casas has ironically received the brunt of the backlash from fans frustrated about the team’s recent offensive woes. Despite a brutal beginning to the season that has suppressed his overall numbers (62 WRC+), he has slashed an excellent .254/.369/.479 over his past 24 games.
Casas leads the team with 11 barrels since May 1st and is tied for 30th in MLB during that span. Contrary to Casas, Alex Verdugo’s hot start has been followed by a rough spell due to his sudden loss of slugging ability (.250/.324/.365).
After slugging .519 through the team’s torrid start to 2023, Verdugo has followed up with a .365 mark over Boston’s past 26 games.
While Verdugo’s struggles have negatively impacted the team, the most notable contributor to the offensive fallout is Rafael Devers, who has limped to a .220/.280/.352 slash line over the past month.
Devers post 16 barrels through the first 35 games of the season but has only barreled seven over the team’s skid.
2023 Red Sox Barrel Leaders (with total over the past month):
23 - Devers (7)
15 - Casas (9)
13 - Yoshida (3)
12 - Verdugo (4)
11 - Turner (8)
10 - Wong (5)
Devers and Yoshida’s power has really fallen off while Casas and Turner are making strong contact as of late.
No Boston hitter had pulled more fly balls over the past three seasons than Devers (67), who has hit .582 and slugged 2.239 when doing so (2021-23). But he has pulled just four balls in the air over the past month.
The league slugging percentage in 2023 on pulled fly-balls is 1.683. The Red Sox offense as a collective has the least of any team in baseball over the last 31 days.
It would be wise for Boston hitters to get back to pulling the ball more often, especially righties considering the advantage of the Green Monster in left. Red Sox right-handed hitters have pulled just seven fly balls in their last 13 home games at Fenway Park. Four of those went for extra bases.
This is not to say that the Boston hitters should always be consciously trying to pull flyballs, as there are certain situations where it is not conducive or necessary to do so. But there needs to be a certain level of aggressiveness and understanding that positive results will come from catching the ball out in front and driving it in the air more often rather than less.
Key returners on the way
The Red Sox have desperately missed the bats of Adam Duvall and Trevor Story during this middling offensive stretch. The two combined have 90 longballs over the past two seasons, homering in 19% of their games.
Both have unsurprisingly frequented the tops of the barrel leaderboards during that time frame, with Duvall notably having an absurd seven barrels through his first eight games (.455/.514/.1030) this season prior to his wrist injury.
The Boston offense could surely use both players’ assistance in order to end the power outage. Combining their help with the strong track record of Devers and others should suggest better results to come.