Leandre: Top 30 second basemen entering 2024, 20-11
The middle third of this up-the-middle half is loaded with offensive firepower ... plus a Platinum Glove winner?
It’s not every day you see a player with such elite defensive prowess fail to crack the top 10 at his respective position.
Today is one of those days.
As I mentioned in the 30 to 21 article, second base became a loaded position the past few years including but not limited to prospects starting to break through into the majors this year.
As a result of this newfound wealth, there are a handful of surprise players ranking in this third who have great cases to crack the top 10.
Before we get into those cases, let’s recap who ranked from No. 30 to 21 for second basemen.
Without further ado, No. 20.
20. Nolan Gorman — St. Louis Cardinals
Gorman can flat-out rake, as he proved through 27 homers and a .358 xwOBA in 119 games last season.
En route to his strong sophomore campaign, he fully leaned into the idea of the three true outcomes — a walk, a strikeout or a home run — as 49.1% of his plate appearances ended with one of those outcomes.
While I love players like that, they’re proven to be extremely volatile.
Look at Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, for example. While he might be an extreme example, he was one of the most average bats from a wRC+ standpoint through August. In the final two months, he posted a 152 wRC+ with 20 of his 47 home runs.
Another example of that caliber of player is Joey Gallo, who was an All-Star as recently as 2021 and is now on his fifth team since that All-Star Game.
The point is, as exciting as someone like Gorman is, there’s still plenty he has to work on before he can soar up these rankings — including his defense.
19. Brandon Lowe — Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe is also, to a great extent, a three-true true outcomes type of player. While he’s not as extreme an example as Gorman is, he knows his way around that class.
The reasons he ranks above Gorman are his defense — four OAA versus -2 — and track record. At one point, Lowe was fighting for the top second base slot in my evaluation. The fact he’s dropped to 19th without inexplicable decline is impressive for the position as a whole.
18. Thairo Estrada — San Francisco Giants
Estrada was a WAR stockpiler in 2023 thanks to his elite defense. As a result of 20 outs above average, he posted 3.9 fWAR, which tied him for seventh among qualified second basemen last year.
Offensively, he’s never going to set the world on fire. He has 14 homers each of the past two seasons but doesn’t walk or hit for exceptional power — thus forcing him to rely on his BABIP.
The past two seasons, he’s posted xwOBAs below .300, which put him below the 30th percentile of hitters each season. He’s an elite defender with solid baserunning, but the bat sustainability scares me a bit from ranking him higher.
17. Brendan Donovan — St. Louis Cardinals
I didn’t do a ranking for utilitymen, otherwise Donovan wouldn’t be ranked as a second baseman.
Last season, he played six defensive positions across 95 total games played.
I love his bat, especially the one we saw in 2022. However, he’s not much of a power threat. Even though his 11 roundtrippers last season were a career-high professionally for Donovan, he’s certainly closer to a Luis Arraez-type of hitter than a Ketel Marte.
Defensively, he's also below average. Given his 124 wRC+ with limited pop and pedestrian defense, he’s right where he belongs at No. 17.
16. Davis Schneider — Toronto Blue Jays
The lore of 2023 Summertime Davis Schneider needs to be cinematized.
Not that he was a bad minor-league hitter by any means, because he wasn’t, but the level at which he took off last year is crazy. In 122 games between Triple-A and MLB last season, he hit 29 home runs and drove in 84. In his previous 308 games professionally, he hit 38.
I just need to see it for more than 35 games before I’m ready to anoint him as a top-12 or so second baseman in baseball.
However, so far he’s passed every test to become a star at the position.
15. Bryson Stott — Philadelphia Phillies
Stott isn’t too far away from being a star in this league, I just need a little bit more out of his bat before he climbs the ranks of this stacked position.
People will point to the fact he hit .280 with over 30 stolen bases, while also hitting a grand slam in the Wild Card round against the Miami Marlins, and say I’m underrating him. To that, I say his .309 xwOBA ranked outside the top 25 at the position, while his .323 wOBA ranked 19th.
Defensively, he’s emerged as a very good player at second, and his baserunning is elite as well. But for most players, their true impact is felt with a bat in their hands and being an average bat with great defense doesn’t hit the same to me as elite offense and average defense.
14. Andrés Giménez — Cleveland Guardians
The same can be said about Giménez as can be said about Stott, except the Guardians’ second baseman has an All-Star appearance and Platinum Glove to his resume.
He has the kind of bat that depends a lot on his BABIP, but can steal bases at an elite clip while playing some of the best second base you’ll see.
Giménez ranked first among second basemen in defensive runs saved last year while ranking second in outs above average. He’s a tremendous defender. If he could walk more, he’d become an even bigger nuisance to play against on a nightly basis.
13. Luis Arraez — Miami Marlins
Don’t get me wrong, Arraez can slap-hit with the best of them, I just think the way he plays the game limits his value.
For starters, he’s not a good defensive second baseman. Defensive runs saved liked him in 2023 (+4) but outs above average hated him (-10). Second, he relies a ton on his BABIP because he doesn’t walk or hit for power.
While he does have a knack for hitting line drives, so much of what makes him good is out of his control.
A singles hitter with sketchy defense just can’t be a top-10 second baseman in my opinion. He’s a great hitter, but his ceiling is low as an offensive contributor.
12. Jorge Polanco — Seattle Mariners
Injuries marred the last two years of Polanco’s tenure in Minnesota but the move to Seattle wipes the slate clean.
Similar to Arraez, Polanco was a positive for DRS and a negative for OAA in 2023. He also had a lower wRC+ by 14 points. However, they were comparable in xwOBAs while Polanco hit more homers and was on pace to trounce him in runs driven in last year.
Polanco is also a much better baserunner historically, with only 0.8 fWAR separating the two since 2021 (despite Arraez playing 76 more games.
11. Gleyber Torres — New York Yankees
My opinion all winter has been that Torres and Polanco are similar players in style, but I’d give the edge to Torres for his durability.
Since the start of 2022, Torres has nearly doubled the fWAR as Polanco because, defensively, he’s considerably better. While they are super comparable offensive players, the tie goes to the one with a greater sample size as it helps validate those numbers more.
I’m curious to see what walk-year Torres looks like. I don’t think he’s going to become a world-beater defensively, but can he return to the 30-homer plateau for the first time since 2019? I believe so.
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