Leandre: Top 30 right fielders entering 2024, 20-11
The middle third for right fielders entering 2024 gets a little more exciting, both in name value and the potential of each player.
The 11 to 20 range of right fielders start to get a little more exciting.
Not only are (most of the) names more recognizable, but the talent of even the unknown shines a bright light on the future of the position.
Before getting into who these 10 are, let’s first recap the previous 10: the ones that got us here.
Not a bad group of players, just not a cast of 10 that brings forth much excitement.
That vibe switches, starting with No. 20.
20. Jake Fraley — Cincinnati Reds
Though considered more of a platoon bat, Fraley emerged as one of the better-hitting outfielders in recent seasons — first with Seattle and now with the Reds.
Following a season with a 122 wRC+, Fraley got more burn in 2023. While his overall numbers went down, he still managed a 107 wRC+ with career-highs in homers (15), steals (21) and runs batted in (65).
His numbers against right-handers took a dip in 2023, probably in part to an increased role, but he’s still a career-119 wRC+ bat against them.
19. Wilyer Abreu — Boston Red Sox
Similar to Fraley, Abreu looks the part of a platoon bat early. This is mostly due to his 75-10 advantage in plate appearances against righties over lefties.
He still hit to the tune of 135 wRC+ with eight extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances, along with a 0.6 fWAR, despite not getting any burn against southpaws.
While strikeouts plagued him last year, he also walked at a more than respectable rate of 10.6%, helping him to his .388 OBP at the MLB level.
Abreu has some pop, but probably won’t be hitting 22 homers in 86 games as he did for Triple-A Worcester last season.
18. Michael Conforto — San Francisco Giants
Conforto became the forgotten middle child over the past few seasons. For starters, he regressed in a contract year in 2021, then missed all of 2022 to an injury.
Last year, he posted a 100 wRC+ with 15 homers in 125 games, good enough for a 1.1 fWAR.
I think Conforto has a bit more in the tank than he showed last year, though I’m not sure how much. He could return to the 2019 Mets level with a 127 wRC+, or he could level out around a 110 wRC+ with 20-ish home runs.
17. Jason Heyward — Los Angeles Dodgers
Heyward can roll out of bed and play top-flight defense, but last year saw a return to steady offensive production.
Following a 152-game stretch from 2021 to 2022 where Heyward posted -0.2 fWAR and a 68 wRC+, he rebounded to post a 121 with 2.2 fWAR in 2023. A career once perceived on the cusp of finality was resurrected with the Dodgers a season ago.
He’s still only 34, so there’s a chance for him to churn out a few more good seasons before Father-Time wins, and I believe 2024 will be a carry-over of what worked so well for him in 2023.
16. Mike Yastrzemski — San Francisco Giants
Quietly, Yastrzemski is one of the steadier outfielders in the game.
While his wRC+ the last three years topped out at 112, he’s still a quality defender and good baserunner. As a result, he’s constantly hovering around two wins above replacement.
His power from the left side is impressive and his plate discipline is elite. All in all, he’s just a solid ballplayer.
15. Kerry Carpenter — Detroit Tigers
Honestly, you could’ve made the case Carpenter should’ve ranked 12th or 11th. The only reason he fell to 15 is the lack of evidence to suggest his defense can hold up over 162 games.
Last year, he posted -2 defensive runs saved and -1 out above average in 651.1 innings defensively. I’m curious to see how that holds up over an 800- or 900-inning sample.
His offense is sublime, however. Last year, he posted a 121 wRC+ with 20 home runs and 64 driven in. So far as a big-leaguer, he has a 122 wRC+ with 26 homers in 149 career games.
For the Tigers to make a run at the American League Central, they’re going to need Carpenter to be even better than he’s been so far in the majors. Can he do it? That remains to be seen.
14. Will Benson — Cincinnati Reds
Benson tore the cover off the ball in 108 games a season ago, posting a 128 wRC+ and a 41.1% hard-hit rate.
His one knock is his 31.3% strikeout rate.
However, he’s an exceptional hitter and a good baserunner to go along with being a fine defensive outfielder.
He was a 54-46 split last year between left and right field, with a slight favor to right field — where I think he’d thrive given full reign out there.
13. Anthony Santander — Baltimore Orioles
Since 2021, only nine batters have more homers in the eighth inning or later than the Orioles’ Santander.
This is to suggest he’s a timely hitter.
The past two seasons especially, he’s flourished as a middle-of-the-order bat for Baltimore, slugging 61 home runs and driving in 184 runs across 305 games.
He’s a beast with a buttery swing, and he’s proven a nightmare for AL East opponents, particularly its relievers.
12. George Springer — Toronto Blue Jays
Last year marked the first time Springer played at least 150 games since 2016. From a counting stats perspective, it was a successful year. However, from a rate basis and value, he’s likely disappointed.
In 154 games, Springer posted a career-worst 104 wRC+ with 2.1 fWAR. While he did reach the 20-homer, 20-steal plateau for the first time, it wasn’t the Springer we’re used to seeing.
He still falls at No. 12 because I believe he’s still got something in the tank and assuming he can maintain the level of health he did last year, he should see those numbers climb back up.
If Spring Training is any indicator, look out in the AL East.
11. Lane Thomas — Washington Nationals
It’s kind of hard to believe the Nationals landed Thomas for 37-year-old Jon Lester with a 5.02 ERA.
After an average first full season in the Nation’s capital, he posted a 109 wRC+ with 28 homers, 86 driven in, 5.8 base runs and a career-high 2.8 fWAR in 157 games.
His defense in right wasn’t groundbreaking but it was stable enough to allow his power and run production to shine rather than get overshadowed.
He has things to improve on heading into 2024, but the Nationals have to be happy with what they got out of that Lester trade in 2021.
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